In the surge of AI advancements, a CoWoS expansion wave is rapidly underway, with TSMC showcasing ongoing ambitions in advanced packaging.

According to Monet DJ, recent industry reports suggest that TSMC is revising upward its capacity plans for SoIC (System-on-Integrated-Chips). By the end of this year, monthly production capacity is expected to jump from around 2,000 units in late 2023 to 5,000-6,000 units, addressing robust demand in the future for AI and HPC.

TSMC’s SoIC represents an industry-first high-density 3D chip stacking technology. Through the Chip on Wafer (CoW) packaging technique, it enables heterogeneous integration of chips with different sizes, functions, and nodes. Production has commenced at its advanced backend Fab 6 in Zhunan.

Quoting industry sources, Money DJ reports that SoIC’s monthly capacity was initially set to expand to 3,000-4,000 units this year from 2,000 units at the end of last year. However, it is now revised upward to 5,000-6,000 units, with a goal to double the capacity by 2025.

CoWoS, a mature technology with 15 years of development, is estimated to reach a monthly capacity of 30,000-34,000 units by the end of this year. TSMC is banking on its globally dominant 3D stacking technology with SoIC. The debut of major customer AMD MI300 utilizing SoIC with CoWoS is seen as pivotal. If successful, AMD could dominate the AI server sector, making TSMC’s SoIC a significant achievement.

Furthermore, Apple, TSMC’s largest customer, is reportedly keenly interested in SoIC. It is said to adopt SoIC with Hybrid Molding technology, currently in small-scale trial production and expected to enter mass production in 2025-2026. The plan is to apply it in products like Mac and iPad, offering cost advantages over current solutions.

As for another major customer of TSMC’s advanced packaging, NVIDIA, although high-end products currently favor CoWoS packaging, the industry anticipates the future integration of SoIC technology.

(Image: TSMC)

Intel has outsourced the production of about 15-20% of its non-CPU chips, with most of the wafer starts for these products assigned to TSMC and UMC, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. While the company is planning to kick off mass production of Core i3 CPUs at TSMC’s 5nm node in 2H21, Intel’s mid-range and high-end CPUs are projected to enter mass production using TSMC’s 3nm node in 2H22.

In recent years, Intel has experienced some setbacks in the development of 10nm and 7nm processes, which in turn greatly hindered its competitiveness in the market. With regards to smartphone processors, most of which are based on the ARM architecture, Apple and HiSilicon have been able to announce the most advanced mobile AP-SoC ahead of their competitors, thanks to TSMC’s technical breakthroughs in process technology.

With regards to CPUs, AMD, which is also outsourcing its CPU production to TSMC, is progressively threatening Intel’s PC CPU market share. Furthermore, Intel lost CPU orders for the MacBook and Mac Mini, since both of these products are now equipped with Apple Silicon M1 processors, which were announced by Apple last year and manufactured by TSMC. The aforementioned shifts in the smartphone and PC CPU markets led Intel to announce its intention to outsource CPU manufacturing in 2H20.

TrendForce believes that increased outsourcing of its product lines will allow Intel to not only continue its existence as a major IDM, but also maintain in-house production lines for chips with high margins, while more effectively spending CAPEX on advanced R&D. In addition, TSMC offers a diverse range of solutions that Intel can use during product development (e.g., chiplets, CoWoS, InFO, and SoIC). All in all, Intel will be more flexible in its planning and have access to various value-added opportunities by employing TSMC’s production lines. At the same time, Intel now has a chance to be on the same level as AMD with respect to manufacturing CPUs with advanced process technologies.

(Cover image source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Limited )

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