The global semiconductor market is nearing the end of its inventory cycle. With the rise of AI-related applications, new energy vehicles, 5G, high-performance computing, and other emerging sectors, industry experts estimate that the global semiconductor industry could reach a valuation of $1 trillion by around 2030.

Recently, new signals have emerged from various regions globally, including China, South Korea, and Japan. Based on the changing data, the growth in different sectors reflects shifts in supply and demand, indicating a widespread recovery trend in the semiconductor industry.

South Korea: Memory Chip Exports Surge by 60.7% YoY

On October 14, local time, data from South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT showed that boosted by record semiconductor sales, South Korea’s ICT (Information and Communication Technology) exports in September 2024 increased by 24% year-on-year to 22.36 billion USD(about 160 billion RMB), marking the 11th consecutive month of growth and the second-highest monthly figure on record.

In the semiconductor sector, South Korea’s semiconductor exports amounted to 13.63 billion USD (about 96.5 billion RMB) in September 2024, a historical high, with a 36.3% year-on-year increase.

Notably, memory chip exports surged 60.7% year-on-year to 8.72 billion USD, a nearly 20% increase compared to the previous month. System semiconductor exports rose 5.2% year-on-year to 4.37 billion USD. The Ministry highlighted that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-value-added products has fueled significant growth in memory semiconductor exports.

South Korea is home to two of the world’s largest memory manufacturers: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. According to TrendForce, Samsung and SK Hynix occupy the top two spots globally in the DRAM and NAND Flash markets, followed by Micron. Hence, South Korea’s semiconductor sector remains a focal point for the industry.

Additionally, the memory market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, with concerns about future trends.

TrendForce data indicated that before the third quarter of 2024, demand for consumer products remained weak, with AI servers driving the primary demand for memory. However, as HBM gains more market share, it is crowding out the capacity for existing DRAM products, leading suppliers to maintain certain pricing levels for contracts. Although server OEMs have maintained momentum in placing orders, smartphone brands are still cautious.

TrendForce forecasts that the growth rate of memory prices will significantly slow in the fourth quarter. Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 0% to 5%, but with HBM accounting for a larger proportion of sales, the overall DRAM price is estimated to rise by 8% to 13%, marking a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous quarter.

China: Integrated Circuit Exports Grow by 22%

According to recent statistics from Chinese customs, China’s total imports and exports reached 32.33 trillion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 5.3% year-on-year. Of this, exports grew by 6.2% to 18.62 trillion RMB, and imports increased by 4.1% to 13.71 trillion RMB.

In terms of exports, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.03 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports. Notably, high-end equipment exports grew by 43.4%, while exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and household appliances rose by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

In terms of imports, China’s integrated circuit and auto parts imports grew by 13.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in the first three quarters. Consumer goods imports exceeded 1.3 trillion RMB.

Regionally, China’s trade with over 160 countries and regions has grown, indicating steady diversification. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 15.21 trillion RMB, growing by 6.3% and accounting for 47.1% of China’s total trade. Trade with RCEP members grew by 4.5%, with ASEAN trade increasing by 9.4%. Meanwhile, trade with the EU and the U.S. grew by 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

Japan: Semiconductor Equipment Exports to China Surge by 61.6%

Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that in August 2024, Japan’s semiconductor equipment exports to China surged by 61.6%, reaching 179.9 billion yen (around $1.29 billion).

The total weight of equipment exported from Japan to China in August was 6,742 tons, a 41% increase compared to the previous month. Machinery accounted for 23.2% of Japan’s total exports to China, with semiconductor equipment making up 11.9%.

These figures underscore Japan’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Additionally, ASML, the Dutch photolithography giant, previously reported that its exports to China grew by 21% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, reaching 2.3 billion euros. Earlier data showed that Asia accounted for 84% of ASML’s 2023 revenue.

(Photo credit: istock)

Any suggestions for Samsung to get out of the rut? The remedy for its slow transformation may be hidden in the experience of Japanese peers. According to reports by Nikkei and Korea media outlet edaily, Samsung has begun researching Japanese companies, led by its Future Business Planning Division.

Citing Nikkei’s report on October 16^th, edaily notes that Samsung’s Future Business Planning Division, which is directly under the charge of Chairman Jay Y. Lee himself, plans to analyze the operations of 110 Japanese companies to study the decline and revival of the Japanese electronics industry. The main objective of the initiative is to identify and nurture business opportunities for Samsung, the reports suggest.

Notably, the research is said to include major tech firms such as Sony Group, which has gradually shifted its focus from hardware to content-oriented businesses like gaming, music, and film, edaily notes. Hitachi, a paradigm of downsizing its original business empire to focus on key growth areas instead, is rumored to be another research subject.

The reports indicate that Samsung’s Future Business Planning Division is gathering not only top employees from various divisions of the group but also individuals with business experience from outside, as it tries to “seek answers from the past for the future.”

Interestingly though, Samsung seems to be in the same shoes as its Japanese rivals a few years ago. Nikkei states that the South Korean tech giant surpassed Japanese companies in the semiconductor and television sectors, but now has found itself in a defensive position when being gradually caught up by Chinese companies, much like the situation Japanese firms used to get stuck in.

Samsung reported its third-quarter earnings last week. The company’s operating profit was initially expected to exceed 10 trillion won, but the actual performance fell short of that target. In terms of chip making business, it is lagging behind foundry giant TSMC due to unstable 3nm yield rates. Regarding memory business, SK hynix is claiming the throne of HBM amid AI boom.

Read more

• [News] Lagging behind SK hynix in HBM, Samsung Plans Significant Year-end Cuts to Chip Executives
• [News] Samsung Foundry Faces Yield Struggles and Client Losses, External Push for Spinoff and U.S. Listing

(Photo credit: Samsung)

Japan’s industrial production declined in August, according to data released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on October 15. Industrial production in August fell by 4.9% year-over-year, a 6% drop compared to the previous month.

On a month-over-month basis, industrial production decreased by 3.3% in August, down 6.4% from the prior month, and below the market expectation of -0.5%.

By sector, approximately 80% of industries saw a decline in output. The automotive industry, in particular, saw a monthly drop of 10.7% (previously 1.9%) and an annual decrease of 15.4% (previously 2.0%), reflecting the impact of halted production due to data falsification by automakers and weak overseas car sales.

Meanwhile, machinery production fell by 7.8% month-over-month (previously -4.6%) and by 7.8% year-over-year (previously 0.9%), driven by weakening overseas demand.

METI forecasts industrial production to increase by 2.0% in September and by 6.1% in October. However, even if production rises as expected in September, third-quarter output may still be lower than in the second quarter.

Industrial production accounts for approximately 40% of Japan’s GDP. With uncertainty in domestic demand from both the U.S. and China, coupled with the potential end of the global manufacturing growth cycle, Japan’s export and production outlook remains uncertain, adding further pressure on its economic growth.

Read more at Datatrack

According to TechNews, citing a report from Nikkei, the Chitose government stated that approximately 50% of the construction of the pilot production line at chipmaker Rapidus’s Hokkaido plant was completed in September. Construction for other processes, such as chip manufacturing, began in October. Notably, Rapidus is set to start receiving EUV machines in December.

According to the report from Nikkei, the economic growth generated by Rapidus is estimated to reach JPY18.8 trillion for Hokkaido. With approximately 4,000 construction workers at the new plant, new apartments and restaurants are being gradually built to accommodate the needs of Rapidus employees and those from other companies. Additionally, Rapidus aims to transform Hokkaido into a comprehensive hub for semiconductor manufacturing, research and development, and human resource development.

However, the situation remains complicated due to the substantial funding required. According to the report in Nikkei, it is estimated that massproducing 2nm chips requires JPY 5 trillion in funding. As per a report from Kyodo News on August 21st, the Japan-based chip manufacturer is expected to begin mass production of 2nm chips by 2027. To secure the necessary funds for semiconductor production, Rapidus is reportedly seeking JPY 100 billion in financing from banks. 

While Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has provided subsidies totaling JPY 920 billion, there is still a shortfall of approximately JPY 4 trillion. The central government plans to submit a legislative proposal to parliament to increase subsidies for Rapidus, as noted by the report in Nikkei.

The report from Nikkei indicated that the Japanese government is also considering transferring government-subsidized plants and equipment to Rapidus in exchange for company shares. Masakazu Tokura, president of the Japan Keidanren (Japan Business Federation), stated that the government should provide long-term support to achieve Japan’s goal of revitalizing its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.

(Photo credit: Rapidus)

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• [News] Rapidus Reportedly Pursues JPY 100 Billion in Bank Financing for Mass Production

Japanese government-backed foundry Rapidus aims to begin mass production of 2nm chips by 2027. According to a MoneyDJ report, existing shareholders like Sony and NAND Flash giant Kioxia are reportedly considering additional investments to support the company’s funding needs.

The Japan Times cited sources confirming that Sony and other current investors will provide further financial backing for Rapidus, which is focused on domestic production of next-generation semiconductors. These investments will be coordinated with financial institutions and the central government to help the Tokyo-based firm secure the necessary capital to start production by 2027.

Rapidus is aiming to raise ¥100 billion from the private sector and asked shareholders to confirm additional contributions, with a response deadline set for Friday.

Investors in Rapidus include Sony Group, NEC, NTT, Kioxia, MUFG Bank, Toyota, SoftBank, and Denso, with combined investments totaling ¥7.3 billion. Sony, NEC, NTT, and MUFG Bank are expected to participate in the additional funding round.

In the financial sector, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Mizuho Bank, and the Development Bank of Japan are also considering becoming new shareholders, with combined investments from these three lenders and MUFG Bank expected to reach ¥25 billion. The additional funding from both financial and non-financial companies is likely to begin as early as 2025.