Amid ongoing rumors about Huawei potentially establishing its own wafer fab, the company has remained relatively discreet, especially in light of the U.S. restrictions on the exportation of semiconductor technologies to China. However, recent developments suggest that there may be some truth to these rumors. According to a patent announcement from the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA), Huawei has applied for a patent related to wafer processing.

According to a report from Chinese media outlet JRJ on December 12th, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. has filed a patent application titled “Wafer Processing Device and Wafer Processing Method” under the public number CN117219552A with the CNIPA. The application date is listed as June 2022.

The patent abstract shows the embodiments disclosure related to devices and methods for wafer processing. The wafer processing device comprises a wafer stage rotated along a rotation axis, a mechanical arm with a robotic hand for handling wafers and placing them on the wafer stage, a controller, and a calibration component. The calibration component includes a grating plate, fixed relative to the wafer stage; a light source, fixed relative to the grating plate; and an imaging element, fixedly provided on the mechanical arm, and adapted to receive light emitted from the light source and transmitted through the grating plate; wherein , the controller is configured to control the mechanical arm or the adjustment device on the mechanical arm to adjust the position of the wafer based on the detection of the received light by the imaging element;wherein, when the wafer stage carries the wafer, the grating plate and the imaging element are respectively located on opposite sides of the table where the upper surface of the wafer stage is located, and the upper surface is used to carry the wafer. The devices and methods provided by embodiments of the present disclosure can improve wafer alignment efficiency and alignment accuracy.

Earlier reports have suggested that Huawei is involved in the construction of wafer fabs in China. According to a news report from Bloomberg, Huawei is actively contributing to the expansion of at least three wafer fabs in the country. In its pursuit of building a self-sustaining semiconductor network, Huawei has acquired manufacturing facilities from Jinhua Integrated Circuit (JHICC) and Qingdao Aristocrat (Suppoly). Additionally, the company has assisted in the establishment of production facilities operated by Pengxinwei (PXW) and Shenzhen Pengsheng Technology (PST). It is worth noting that JHICC and PXW face challenges in selling their products to multinational corporations and encounter difficulties in procuring advanced wafer manufacturing equipment due to being blacklisted by the U.S. government.

(Image: Huawei)

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• [Insights] Chinese Government Invests in Huawei Supply Chain; Semiconductor Self-sufficiency for China’s Long-Term Growth

According to a news report from IJIWEI, as the supply chain reveals, three major Chinese smartphone manufacturers, Huawei, Honor, and Transsion, are estimating an active shipment goal of 70-80 million units in 2024. This estimate accounts for approximately 5% in the global smartphone market. 

On the other hands, memory manufacturers are expected to continue pushing for price increases in 2024, as demand from smartphone customers becomes more proactive in the fourth quarter.

Reportedly, the supply chain estimates that due to U.S. restrictions, Huawei’s smartphone shipments are confined to the domestic Chinese market. It is projected that new device shipments for 2024 could see growth in the range of 20-30 million units. 

Honor, with a potential 300% increase in overseas smartphone shipments in the first three quarters of 2023, coupled with the success of the Magic V2 foldable smartphone, aims to continue the momentum with a growth projection of 20 million units in 2024.

Transsion estimates a growth of 30 million units in smartphone shipments in 2024, making it the only brand currently challenging double-digit growth.

Previously, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from Tianfeng International Securities indicated in a report that Huawei is expected to launch a new flagship series, the P70, in the first half of 2024. Benefiting from upgraded camera specifications and the adoption of the in-house designed Kirin chip, the shipment volume of the models under Huawei’s P70 series is expected to see significant growth in 2024 compared to the 4–5 million units of the models under the P60 series in 2023.

If the current robust demand for replenishing smartphone inventory continues into the first half of 2024, the shipment volume of the P70 series is expected to show strong year-on-year growth of about 230%, reaching 13-15 million units for 2024. Even if the demand for inventory replenishment slows down in the first half of 2024, the shipment volume of the P70 series is still expected to experience significant year-on-year growth of 150%, reaching 10-12 million units for 2024.

(Photo credit: Huawei)

Bloomberg reported in early December 2023 that the Chinese government has been directly investing to assist Huawei in building its chip supply chain since 2019, indicating that the ongoing uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade war, the pursuit of semiconductor industry self-sufficiency is expected to be a long-term development direction for China.

TrendForce’s insight:

1. Chinese Government Establishes Investment Fund for Huawei, Creating Exclusive Supply Chain

On May 15, 2019, when the United States announced the inclusion of Huawei and its 70 subsidiaries in the trade blacklist, the Chinese government swiftly established a fund named “Shenzhen Major Industry Investment Group” in Shenzhen, where Huawei’s headquarter is located.

This fund, directly funded by the local government, aimed primarily at creating a large supply chain for Huawei, consisting of optical factories, chip equipment developers, and chemical manufacturers.

One chip manufacturer, SiCarrier, maintained close ties with Huawei. Besides talent exchanges, the company also transferred over a dozen patented technologies to Huawei.

2. Escalating U.S.-China Trade War Drives Long-Term Semiconductor Self-Reliance in China

Recently, the Nikkei news, in collaboration with the research company Fomalhaut Techno Solutions, conducted a renewed disassembly of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro smartphone. The findings indicate that, based on component costs, approximately 47% of the components are manufactured in China.

This contradicts the earlier claim by Chinese media of a 90% domestic production rate. Nevertheless, the Mate 60 Pro shows a noteworthy 18% increase in domestic production compared to the Mate 40 Pro in 2020.

Additionally, during the component analysis, it was reaffirmed that the self-developed 5G processor, Kirin 9000S, featured in Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro smartphone, has a circuit width of 7nm. This demonstrates China’s semiconductor technological prowess despite restrictions imposed by the U.S. ban.

However, when the semiconductor industry value chain is divided regionally, it can be observed that in the uppermost stream of the supply chain, including electronic design automation software and licensed intellectual property used in chip design, this domain is primarily concentrated in the hands of U.S. firms.

Currently, China’s overall share in the global semiconductor value chain remains relatively low and is more concentrated in downstream packaging and manufacturing. If China aims to establish a fully “self-sufficient” semiconductor supply chain, it is estimated that there is still a long way to go.

However, what is certain is that in the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the pursuit of semiconductor industry autonomy will be a long-term development direction for China.

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• Key Development Period for AI PCs in 2024; Global Notebook Market Set to Rebound to Healthy Supply-Demand Cycle with an Estimated Growth Rate of 3.2%, Says TrendForce

According to TechNews’ report, after a prolonged period of price suppression in the mobile panel market, there has been an upswing in demand since the end of the second quarter, as customer inventories have reached a turning point.

The report further quoted industry sources, stating that the increased demand is notably driven by Huawei’s new models, and other customers initiating stockpiling for new models. This gradual increase in demand is raising AMOLED panel utilization rates, subsequently leading to a price uptick, which is also influencing LTPS LCD panel prices.

Previously reported by IJIWEI, the robust demand for Huawei’s Mate 60 series smartphones is expected to contribute to a total annual smartphone shipment of 40 to 50 million units. This surpasses the previous year’s shipments of 30 million units by 30 to 70%.

Industry insiders cited by South Korean media indicate that Huawei’s shipping target for the next year is 100 million units, surpassing market research company predictions by over 40%, which estimated around 70 million units.

The demand for Huawei’s new smartphone models is on the rise, especially as its high-end products extensively adopt LTPO backplane technology, occupying a portion of panel manufacturers’ capacity. Additionally, other customers initiating preparations for new models have contributed to the surge in demand, bringing China’s AMOLED panel capacity back to 80-90%.

Looking ahead to next year, the demand for AMOLED panels will still need to be monitored, particularly around the Lunar New Year. If demand continues to grow steadily, it will likely support panel prices.

As for the crucial component, OLED DDI (Display Driver IC), the process is gradually shifting from 40nm to 28nm. Currently, only UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) globally can mass-produce the 28nm HV (High Voltage) process required for OLED DDI, while SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) employs the 40nm HV process.

With TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) set to join the 28nm HV process in 2025, there is no imminent shortage of supply. Therefore, the price increase in AMOLED panels may have limited impact on OLED DDI prices, and the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year are likely to maintain a stable trend.

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• [News] Industry Insiders Report Huawei’s Target of Shipping 100 Million Smartphones Next Year

(Photo credit: Huawei)

This year, BYD, a notable figure in the global automotive market, has recently faced a downturn. The extensive price reductions initiated on November 24th have raised concerns, as it is perceived to contradict the company’s earlier commitment to avoid participating in price wars. BYD is now under pressure to intensify its efforts to reach its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles.

According to multiple reports from Chinese media on November 25th, in an attempt to overcome this challenging situation, BYD has been taking frequent actions. Following a wave of promotional activities in early November, on 24th, dealers reportedly implemented large-scale price reductions, expanding cash discounts to various models such as Qin, Han, Tang, and Song, ranging from CNY 3,000 to 10,000.

The discounts on models like Qin PLUS DM-i and Qin PLUS EV are particularly significant, reaching up to CNY 10,000, with the starting price of Qin PLUS DM-i dropping to CNY 89,800.

BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu emphasized at the end of August that he was confident in achieving the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles and would not engage in intense price wars within the industry.

The recent measures of BYD, involving two price reductions within a month, have sparked discussions. BYD stated on November 25th that this promotion is limited to the month and is not an official price reduction activity. Its purpose is to accelerate the transition from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles.

The market is closely watching whether BYD can achieve its annual target. BYD’s official Weibo account stated on November 24th that it took just over three months to go from 5 million to 6 million units of EVs, marking another milestone. Moreover, in October, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 300,000 vehicles for the first time, setting a new monthly record.

However, while BYD’s monthly sales continue to grow, the year-to-date sales growth has significantly declined. In the next two months, BYD’s sales still need to climb above the 300,000 mark to achieve the 3 million annual target. Industry insiders suggest that BYD’s recent price reductions may boost its sales target but are also expected to intensify market price competition.

In addition, BYD faces threats from local competitors. Recently, various forces in the Chinese auto market have made significant deployments. The Huawei Luxeed S7 is set to be launched on November 28, and Huawei showcased a video on the 24th demonstrating the autonomous parking function of the Luxeed S7, highlighting its powerful technological capabilities.

Furthermore, Xiaomi’s progress in the car manufacturing sector continues to advance, with its new car expected to debut in the first quarter of 2024. The competition in the Chinese new energy vehicle market is, without a doubt, increasing.

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• [News] Amid Chinese Car Price War, Tesla Takes a Step Back, while BYD Secures Sales Crown