Since 2H25, accelerated AI infrastructure buildouts by CSPs have surged HBM demand and crowded out conventional DRAM capacity, pushing the broader DRAM market into shortage. Constrained by annual pricing mechanisms, HBM per-wafer output value and margins fell below DDR5 RDIMM in 1Q26. As 2027 HBM4 supply negotiations launch in 2Q26, TrendForce expects suppliers to push through substantial contract price hikes, reflecting acute supply-demand imbalance and rising next-generation manufacturing costs.

Key Highlights

• Capacity Crowd-Out Drives Shortage: Strong AI demand from CSPs is surging HBM volumes; its larger die size heavily displaces conventional DRAM capacity, tightening the broader market across the board.
• Negotiation Shift Temporarily Depressed 2026 HBM Pricing: Annual pricing mechanisms and a new supplier's entry left HBM contract prices lagging market conditions, with per-wafer output value and margins even falling below conventional DRAM—prompting suppliers to adopt an assertive stance in new contract talks.
• Generational Shift Drives Demand Momentum: Demand momentum will pivot from 2026's AI ASIC capacity upgrades to being jointly driven by next-gen GPU platforms and AI ASICs, with enlarged die sizes further intensifying the capacity crowd-out.
• Suppliers Secure Clear Pricing Leadership: Facing rising manufacturing complexity and costs, sellers' bargaining power has materially strengthened. Suppliers will push through substantial contract hikes and balance HBM/conventional DRAM allocation per negotiated pricing, sustaining memory demand across the AI ecosystem.

Table of Contents

1. Negotiations for 2027 HBM Contracts Have Begun in 2Q26, and Prices Are Expected to Increase Severalfold to Reflect Undersupplied Market
   • HBM Output Value per Wafer, 1Q25-4Q26
   • ASP per Gb for HBM, 1Q25-4Q26
2. Demand Momentum for HBM Mostly Generated by AI ASICs in 2026, Followed by Rubin Ultra and AI ASICs in 2027
   • HBM Bit Shipments and HBM’s Share of Total DRAM Wafer Output / Supply Bits

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