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Under inflation and warfare, global economy faces uncertainty; Middle East conflicts disrupt supply chains, high energy prices elevate living costs and inflation expectations. Consumer confidence is low, suppressing purchasing power. Electronics demand weakens, ODMs suffer key material shortages like CPUs, reducing output; yet AI demand surges, shifting capacity and triggering channel precautionary stockpiling, creating supply-demand mismatch. High-end MLCC pricing pressure forms.
CapEx figures, production capacity figures, and inventory levels of MLCC suppliers are constantly being tracked and updated on a regular basis. TrendForce also provides analyses on the price trends and inventory statuses of production-related materials.
US-Iran conflict escalates energy costs and inflation, impacting global supply chains via AI demand and geopolitics. Passive component sector faces capacity shifts; Japanese-Korean suppliers pivot to high-end AI, while weak consumer demand sparks pricing divergences, with some testing moderate hikes for profit optimization.
Middle East stalemate and inflation pressures drive OEMs to pull forward shipments for market share, yet pricing strategies diverge. Global economy faces systemic risks, prolonging high rates and shifting consumption, impacting electronics demand. MLCC high-end remains robust, with suppliers optimizing capacity; downside risks loom for later peak season.
Rising oil prices and shipping costs heighten inflation risks amid prolonged geopolitical conflicts, potentially leading to global recession and monetary tightening. ICT stockpiling turns conservative due to shortages, with consumer electronics prices adjusted upward; AI servers maintain strong demand, supporting high-end components. Policies urging cloud providers to build independent power may squeeze AI investments, showing a divide of strong AI and weak consumer markets.
Q2 MLCC prices remain stable overall, with minor adjustments for high-cap special specs; supply stability prioritized. Global tensions raise costs, AI demand strong vs. mild consumer electronics.
Rising oil prices and freight costs heighten inflation risks, with AI supporting demand while ICT stockpiling turns conservative. Prolonged geopolitical conflicts sustain high energy costs, potentially sparking global recession and monetary tightening. Consumer electronics face supply shortages and price hikes, slowing market growth. In contrast, AI servers and accelerators show steady demand, with high-end MLCC orders robust, though policies may pressure cloud providers' capital spending.
Tariff shifts and geopolitical conflicts drive up supply chain costs. While AI infrastructure remains robust, PC and smartphone markets weaken under rising component prices. This polarization, coupled with Intel’s price hikes, risks further dampening consumer demand.
The MLCC market in the fourth quarter shows polarization in shipments, with Japanese and Korean suppliers benefiting from strong AI infrastructure orders and growth, while Taiwanese and Chinese suppliers face declines due to weak consumer electronics. Overall demand forms a K-shaped development, with consumer electronics underperforming in peak season amid economic slowdown and geopolitical influences, while AI demand remains robust. High-end MLCC demand continues to grow, with strict inventory control and capacity shifts toward high-end products.
Global instability and rising raw materials drive up electronic component costs; AI infrastructure demand boosts memory super cycle, shifting ODMs' negotiation to stable pricing for supply security. Supply chain price pressures spread, high-end MLCC demand surges, suppliers optimize capacity toward premium items and localize in China to cut costs. Market sees easing price declines, with supply stability key.
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