4Q25 holiday Demand May Weaken as Polarization of MLCC Supply Intensifies, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest MLCC investigation reveals growing macroeconomic headwinds. The U.S. ADP September Employment Report recorded its largest decline in two and a half years, while the Federal Reserve was left without key data for policy decisions due to the government shutdown.

Meanwhile, the global electronics industry is clouded by the potential tariff increases from the Section 232 investigation. As a result, the global economy is expected to face heightened uncertainty in 4Q25, eroding consumer and investor confidence and likely dampening year-end spending. In response, supply chain players are adopting a more cautious outlook heading into the holiday season.

China’s Golden Week failed to meaningfully boost demand, reflecting the notion that consumption downgrade has become the norm. TrendForce notes that smartphone orders from Huawei, Xiaomi, and OPPO are expected to fall 12–15% QoQ in 4Q25, while notebook demand will drop 8–10%. 

Although AI server orders continue to grow, they remain concentrated among a few ODMs such as Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron. Smartphone ODMs like Huaqin and Wingtech have become conservative, focusing on rush orders to avoid inventory risks, which has led to slower replenishment and shipment pacing across the supply chain.

The iPhone 17 series performed unexpectedly well this year despite weaker overall demand, driving Murata and Taiyo Yuden to increase MLCC orders by roughly 5% in October. However, this rebound is not enough to fully offset the broader market slowdown. The conservative holiday outlook and volatile order patterns signal that the industry will still face inventory and capacity adjustments in early 2026.

TrendForce states that the current MLCC market shows clear polarization. Japanese and Korean giants such as Murata, Taiyo Yuden, and Samsung are benefiting from AI server momentum and Apple’s new devices, leading to a steady flow of high-capacitance MLCC rush orders in 4Q25. Murata’s MLCC shipments exceeded 140 billion units in September—an all-time high.

In contrast, Taiwanese and Chinese MLCC suppliers are affected by weak smartphone and notebook demand, with cautious procurement dragging down their B/B ratios. In response to headwinds, these suppliers are adjusting capacity, boosting automation, and adopting more domestic materials to reduce costs.

Overall, the 4Q25 MLCC market is being propped up by demand from AI infrastructure, while consumer electronics demand remains weak. Combined with ongoing economic and policy risks, market challenges continue to intensify. TrendForce expects OEMs and ODMs to maintain cautious procurement strategies, resulting in stable revenue growth only in high-end MLCC segments. Standard consumer-grade MLCC orders are unlikely to rebound, forcing suppliers to carefully balance cost reduction, operational efficiency, and capacity allocation in order to manage expenses.

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