Weakening Demand and Rising Supply Pressures Prompt Downward Revision of Global Notebook Shipments in 2026 to -14.8% YoY, Says TrendForce

Global notebook shipments are showing clear signs of further weakening, according to TrendForce’s latest findings on the notebook industry. Subsequently, TrendForce has revised its 2026 full-year shipment forecast downward from -9.2% to -14.8% YoY amid expectations of deteriorating end-market demand and rising supply chain costs, reflecting a deeper industry correction.

The recovery in the consumer market has fallen short of expectations as macroeconomic headwinds and rising prices dampen purchasing willingness. As key component costs continue to climb, notebook brands are gradually passing these increases on to end-market pricing to preserve margins. 

Further price hikes are to be expected in the coming quarters. Consumers are becoming more cautious as prices rise, and a growing wait-and-see sentiment is expected to further suppress shipment momentum. 

On the supply side, pressures are also intensifying. A tight memory supply continues to push up system costs, while price adjustments to CPUs and fluctuations in supply availability are further deteriorating cost structures. Although brands are increasingly compelled to raise retail prices to maintain profitability, this in turn weakens consumer demand, creating a negative feedback loop between pricing and demand.

Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of computing demand for AI is reshaping the allocation of semiconductor resources. Advanced process and packaging capacity are being prioritized for high-performance computing, crowding out supply for mainstream and entry-level processors. This structural shift not only raises costs but also reduces supply stability, increasing uncertainty in product planning and shipment execution. 

Market polarization among notebook brands is expected to intensify in 2026 as structural pressure mounts. Leading brands, supported by scale and long-term supply chain partnerships, are better positioned to maintain relatively stable access to components and cost control.

Apple has recently introduced a lower-priced model, the MacBook Neo. Key factors behind this move include its in-house Apple Silicon chips, which reduce reliance on external CPU suppliers and provide greater flexibility in capacity allocation and cost negotiations. Additionally, Apple’s highly standardized product specifications, streamlined model lineup, and concentrated memory capacities and configurations enable it to scale procurement volumes and strengthen long-term contract negotiations.

TrendForce estimates that Apple’s notebook shipments will grow 7.7% YoY in 2026, outperforming the broader market trend. This is based on Apple’s ability to expand into lower price segments, adopt a proactive pricing strategy, and maintain stronger chain control than its peers.

In contrast, smaller brands face significantly greater challenges, with limited pricing power and higher exposure to component shortages and delivery volatility. This could further impact shipment performance.

Overall, the global notebook industry is battling a combined front of weak demand, rising costs, and supply chain restructuring. TrendForce believes that, in the absence of meaningful relief in pricing pressures and a clear recovery in the end market, the market will remain under pressure in 2026, with the possibility of further downward revisions to shipment forecasts in the near term.