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LEDinside: demand recovery not in sight; pressure of 2010 Q4 LED price decline expected to extend till 2011 Q1

18 January 2011 LED

LEDinside: demand recovery not in sight; pressure of 2010 Q4 LED price decline expected to extend till 2011 Q1

According to the latest price survey by LEDinside, an LED research division of TrendForce, in 2010 Q4, demand from LED applications still has not recovered, including continued inventory adjustment of large-size panels and lower-than-expected demand from general lighting. As a result, pressure of LED price decline extends from 2010 Q3. Among them, price of LED for large-size panel applications fell by 5% -9%, with most substantial decline in TV backlight applications; high power LED lighting applications declined by more than 12%. Due to relatively stable demand from mobile phone applications, LED prices in this segment are fairly stable with a mere 3% seasonally adjusted decrease.

As for prices of LEDs in large-size backlight applications in 2010 Q4, due to slower-than-expected panel shipment recovery, vendors have adjusted shipments, while LED demand recovery is not yet in sight. Hence, in TV backlight applications, LED prices of mainstream specification 5630 decreased by 9%, to US$ 0.11 ~ US$ 0.15, while LED prices of LCD notebook backlight dropped by 5% -6%.

LEDinside noted that at this stage, LED prices for mobile backlighting applications, including specifications 0.4t and 0.6, are relatively stable due to stable shipment; price decline for this segment is estimated at 3% in 2010 Q4.

In high power LED lighting applications, LED prices declined substantially, affected by weak demand coupled with inventory pressure; prices of mainstream specification 100-120lm plummeted by 12% in 2010 Q4.

2011 Q1 LED market price outlook

Due to greater inventory pressure from large-size backlight applications, LEDinside expects demand in this segment to recover gradually at the end of 2011 Q1; therefore, price pressure is expected to ease thereafter. As for the price of LED in LCD TV applications, LEDinside estimates a 9% decline in 2011 Q1. High power LED may face pressure from inventory clearing, therefore, its prices are expected to post a double-digit decline.

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