TSMC’s fab in Kikuyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan (Kumamoto Fab 1) is expected to begin mass production by the end of 2024, with plans for a second fab in the region. Thus, the influence of TSMC’s presence continues to expand, as per the latest estimates from local financial institutions.

Over the next decade, from now until 2031, the economic spillover effect of TSMC’s operations in Kumamoto is projected to surpass 10 trillion yen, marking a 60% increase from a previous estimate in August 2023.

According to a report from Nikkei citing Kyushu Financial Group (Kyushu FG), a new impact estimate has been released on September 5, showing that TSMC’s operations in Kumamoto Prefecture are projected to generate an economic spillover effect of approximately JPY 11.2 trillion over the next 10 years, until 2031.

This marks a 60% increase from the previous estimate of JPY 6.9 trillion published in August 2023. The projected impact on Kumamoto Prefecture’s GDP over the same period has also risen from JPY 3.4 trillion to JPY 5.6 trillion.

Reportedly, the previous estimate from Kyushu FG last August only considered the benefits of TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 1. The latest report, however, includes the planned construction of the Kumamoto Fab 2 in its evaluation.

The upward revision is attributed to the expanded magnetic pull of TSMC’s Kumamoto operations (both fabs). The number of companies expected to set up or invest in the region has increased to 171, roughly double the previous estimate.

Initially, the first Kumamoto fab attracted strong interest from suppliers like Sony and Mitsubishi Electric. Following TSMC’s announcement in February to build a second fab, further investments are expected, not only from within Kumamoto but also from other prefectures and overseas suppliers, particularly from Taiwan.

Additionally, the economic impact is expected to extend to wage levels in Kumamoto Prefecture, with an estimated increase of JPY 380,000 in per capita annual income.

Meanwhile, as stated in an report from Bloomberg on May 11th, Kumamoto’s newly appointed governor, Takashi Kimura, once claimed that he would spare no effort to persuade TSMC to establish a third fab in the region.

In addition, a recent report from Kyodo News citing the interview with Taiwanese Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo has also hinted that TSMC plans to build a third fab in Japan, but with a projected timeline after 2030.

If the third fab is realized, the economic spillover effect is anticipated to expand further.

Read more

• [News] TSMC to Build Third Fab in Japan? The Timing May Be Reportedly after 2030
• [News] TSMC’s Kumamoto Fab 2 Reportedly Begins Land Preparation

(Photo credit: JASM)

As per a report from Kyodo News on August 21st, that the Japan-based chip manufacturer Rapidus is expected to begin mass production of 2nm chips by 2027. To secure the necessary funds for semiconductor production, Rapidus is reportedly seeking JPY 100 billion in financing from banks.

Reportedly, Rapidus has requested financing from Japan’s three major banks—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Mizuho Bank—as well as from the Development Bank of Japan.

Additionally, Rapidus has asked existing shareholders, including Toyota, for additional investment. The response of these shareholders is now a key point of interest.

Rapidus, established in August 2022, is a joint venture funded by eight Japanese companies: Toyota, Sony, NTT, NEC, SoftBank, Denso, NAND Flash maker Kioxia, and Mitsubishi UFJ.

The report further indicates that Rapidus currently relies mainly on government subsidies to advance its projects. To achieve its goal of mass-producing 2nm chips by 2027, a total investment of approximately JPY 5 trillion from both public and private sectors is expected.

If Rapidus secures the requested 100 billion yen in financing, it would mark the first major funding from financial institutions, representing a significant step forward for the company.

Per an earlier report from Nikkei, the Japanese government has so far decided to provide JPY 920 billion in subsidies to Rapidus. Additionally, the eight private Japanese companies, including Toyota, have invested JPY 7.3 billion in the venture.

However, there remains a funding gap of about JPY 4 trillion. Establishing production technology and acquiring customers are challenging tasks, and some banks are cautious about providing financing, which may pose obstacles to meeting the funding requirements.

Nikkei’s report on August 10 also pointed out that Rapidus, which began construction on its 2nm wafer fab in Hokkaido last September, plans to start mass production of 2nm chips by 2027.

The external construction of the facility is expected to be completed in October this year, with the installation of Japan’s first extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment scheduled for December. The plan includes introducing several additional EUV machines in the future.

Koike expressed confidence in achieving the 2027 mass production goal and emphasized that Rapidus aims to produce semiconductors at least twice as fast as its competitors, with potential speed increases for smaller batches.

He also addressed that the company will collaborate with Japan’s top material and equipment suppliers to lower costs and produce globally competitive products.

Read more

• [News] Rapidus to Fully Automate 2nm Fab, Claiming Chip Delivery Times at One-Third of Its Competitors
• [News] Japanese Government Reportedly Plans to Offer Guaranteed Loans to Chip Startup Rapidus

(Photo credit: Rapidus)

To revitalize its domestic semiconductor chip industry, Japan has launched several measures in recent years, including financial subsidies. According to Japanese media reports, many Japanese companies will invest JPY 5 trillion (Around USD 30.96 billion) to develop the semiconductor business.

Nikkei Asia reported on July 8 that eight Japanese companies, including Sony, Mitsubishi Electric, Rohm, Toshiba, Kioxia, Renesas, Rapidus, and Fuji Electric, will invest JPY 5 trillion in the semiconductor field by 2029, driven by the promising prospects of AI, EV, and carbon reduction markets.

As per Nikkei News, based on the capital investment plans from the fiscal 2021 to 2029 of these manufacturers, in order to rejuvenate Japan’s domestic chip industry, these companies will increase their investments in power semiconductor, sensor, and logic chip fields, which are seen as core technologies to the burgeoning sectors such as AI, decarbonization, and EV.

Among these, Sony plans to invest about JPY 1.6 trillion from fiscal 2021 to 2026 to ramp up its CMOS image sensor production capacity. Sony is a globally renowned image sensor manufacturer, and its chip business head, Terushi Shimizu, previously predicted that Sony’s market share in the global image sensor market would reach 60% by the new fiscal year starting April 2025.

In December 2023, Sony held a completion ceremony for the expansion project at its Nagasaki Technology Center (Isahaya City, Nagasaki Prefecture), which produces image sensors. Sony also announced the plan to build a new image sensor production plant in Kumamoto Prefecture, matching the need to expand the Nagasaki plant to improve its supply system. Nikkei News reported in 2022 that Sony planed to invest several hundred billion yen in the new Kumamoto plant to produce smartphone image sensors, with construction expected to start as early as 2024 and production in 2025.

Toshiba and Rohm, positive about the expanding demand for AI data center and the EV market, project to jointly invest about JPY 380 billion to increase the production of silicon (Si) and silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors.

In December 2023, Toshiba announced that it had reached an agreement with Rohm to collaborate on manufacturing power devices. Both companies are expected to make efficiency investment totaling JPY 388.3 billion in silicon (Si) and silicon carbide (SiC) power devices fields, aiming to significantly strengthen their supply capacity and complement each other’s production capabilities.

Rohm plans to build a new plant in Miyazaki Prefecture on Kyushu Island and will allocate JPY 289.2 billion in silicon carbide wafer production. Toshiba will invest nearly JPY 100 billion to set up a cutting-edge 300mm wafer manufacturing plant in Ishikawa Prefecture, central Japan.

Mitsubishi Electric plans to invest JPY 100 billion to build a new factory in Kumamoto Prefecture to produce silicon carbide power semiconductor, expected to commence operation in April 2026. Mitsubishi Electric aims to increase its SiC power semiconductor production capacity to five times the 2022 level by 2026. Mitsubishi Electric President Kei Urishima stated, “We will establish a system capable of rival global leader Infineon.”

In 2022, Renesas announced a plan to invest JPY 90 billion to convert its previously closed Kofu factory into a 12-inch wafer plant to meet the growing demand in the power semiconductor field. On April 11 this year, the factory officially resumed operations. Renesas previously estimated that the factory would start mass-producing IGBT and power MOSFET devices in 2025, doubling the company’s overall power semiconductor production capacity.

As to logic semiconductor industry, Japan’s new semiconductor player Rapidus plans to produce 2nm chip in Hokkaido, with a total investment of JPY 2 trillion, of which the Japanese government decided to subsidize JPY 920 billion. Rapidus plans to start trial production of 2nm logic chip in April 2025 and achieve large-scale mass production by 2027.

To capitalize on the expanding opportunities in artificial intelligence (AI), electric vehicles (EV), and the carbon reduction market, eight Japanese companies, including Sony and Mitsubishi Electric, plan to invest JPY 5 trillion (around USD 30 billion) in semiconductors. According to a report by Nikkei on July 8, this investment is expected to increase the production of image sensors, power semiconductors, logic semiconductors, and other products.

Reportedly, eight Japanese companies, including Sony, are planning to invest JPY 5 trillion in semiconductors by 2029, driven by the optimistic outlook for the AI and carbon reduction markets. The report compiled by Nikkei surveys the equipment investment plans of eight major Japanese semiconductor manufacturers for the period from 2021 to 2029: Sony, Mitsubishi Electric, Rohm, Toshiba, Kioxia, Renesas, Rapidus, and Fuji Electric.

The report indicates that Sony will invest roughly JPY 1.6 trillion from 2021 to 2026 to increase the production of CMOS image sensors and other products, with plans to build a new factory in Kumamoto Prefecture. Additionally, Japanese manufacturers are expanding the production of power semiconductors in response to the growing AI data center and EV markets.

Toshiba and Rohm plan to invest a combined total of around 380 billion yen to increase production of silicon (Si) and silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors. Mitsubishi Electric aims to increase its SiC power semiconductor capacity to five times the 2022 level by 2026 and will invest about 100 billion yen to build a new factory in Kumamoto Prefecture. Mitsubishi Electric President Kei Urushima stated that they aim to establish a system capable of competing with its rival Infineon, which is the global leader in the SiC power products.

Reportedly, Japanese semiconductor companies held a 50% global market share in 1988. However, after the 1990s, they lost the competition to Taiwanese and South Korean manufacturers, leading to their withdrawal from advanced process research and development in the early 2000s. By 2017, Japan’s market share had fallen below 10%.

In recent years, the Japanese government has been actively revitalizing the semiconductor industry. In the field of advanced logic semiconductors necessary for AI, the Japanese government has decided to provide up to 920 billion yen in support to Rapidus. Rapidus plans to begin trial production of 2-nanometer chips in April 2025 and commence mass production in 2027.

Read more

• [News] Semiconductor Equipment Sales Soared in Chinese and Japanese Markets
• [News] Booming GPU and HBM Demand Pushes Japanese Chip Equipment Annual Sales to Record High

(Photo credit: Mitsubishi Electric)

Just as generative AI is revolutionizing industries worldwide today by creating new opportunities, the concept of the Metaverse in 2021 was similarly embraced by technology giants as a strategic goal and vision for the future of the entire tech sector.

Microsoft, for instance, targeted the corporate segment of the Metaverse, showcasing the use of its mixed reality (MR) device, HoloLens 2, in manufacturing operations. NVIDIA introduced the Omniverse platform for image simulation, thereby facilitating the development of virtual environments within the Metaverse. There were also rumors about Google and Apple launching new virtual reality (VR) head-mounted devices. Perhaps most notably, Facebook’s name change to Meta was a clear indication of its commitment to this emerging field.

As Hype Fades, More Hardware and Content Are Needed to Strengthen the Foundation of the Metavers

Despite initial market optimism, the reality was that wearable technology had not reached maturity, and the quality of virtual content experiences fell short of expectations. As a result, there was insufficient momentum to drive the Metaverse forward in subsequent market developments. Many tech companies established departments dedicated to the Metaverse, but due to lackluster results and issues with resource allocation, these departments often faced workforce reductions, downsizing, or even complete dissolution.

Declining enthusiasm for the Metaverse primarily stems not from a flaw in the idea of blending virtual and real worlds, but from the grandiosity of its concept. The essence of Industry 4.0, after all, revolves around enhancing production efficiency through the data-driven integration of physical and digital realms.

This is a proven approach. Nevertheless, the challenge with the Metaverse lies in its ambitious scale. Without adequate software and hardware support, efforts to expand and implement it often fall short, yielding minimal benefits and, thus, diminishing its commercial appeal.

Essentially, the widespread adoption of technologies like head-mounted devices and a rich content library are vital for industry growth. In response, companies that develop VR and augment reality (AR) in recent years have pivoted their focus from the broader environmental framework towards improving wearable devices and creating engaging content. In doing so, they aim to boost the practical value of adopting VR and AR.

From Virtual Interaction to Spatial Computing, the Scope of Applications for Head-mounted Devices Continues to Expand

In 2023, according to TrendForce’s analysis, Meta’s Quest series dominated the global VR and MR device market, securing nearly 70% of total device shipments. This significant market share places Meta at the forefront, with Sony’s PS VR series ranking second, followed by other manufacturers like PICO and HTC. Entering the fray in 2024, Apple introduced its Vision Pro, which is expected to claim a 6% share of the global market.

Meta’s latest offering, the Quest 3, has adopted pancake lenses that enhance image clarity while slimming down the device’s profile. It is powered by the Qualcomm Snapdragon XR2 Gen 2, a (SoC) tailored for head-mounted devices that significantly boosts GPU and AI processing capabilities.

The Quest 3 marks a pivotal shift for Meta from VR to MR. Equipped with dual front-facing RGB cameras and advanced features like depth projection and room mapping, the Quest 3, alongside the higher-end Quest Pro, supports a range of MR applications. Additionally, the tracking capabilities of the Quest 3 are augmented by computer vision and machine learning technologies. With Meta’s ongoing collaboration with LG on new product development, the focus is now on extended reality (XR) applications linked with the television ecosystem.

Apple’s Vision Pro, which was launched in February 2024, has reignited market interest in VR.

This device fills a previously unaddressed gap in Apple’s portfolio by offering a VR head-mounted device that integrates seamlessly with iPhones, iPads, and other devices within Apple’s ecosystem, thereby enabling functions like image and video projection onto larger screens. The introduction of the Vision Pro brought the concept of spatial computing into the limelight, enabling users to interact with virtual objects in a natural and intuitive way and thus infusing fresh perspectives into the industry.

Moreover, at CES 2024, Sony unveiled an XR head-mounted device dubbed a “spatial content creation system.” Like the Apple Vision Pro, this device leverages the advantages of spatial computing. It’s designed as a commercial tool for developing 3D content, offering users precise and intuitive control over virtual objects, thereby simplifying the process of creating 3D models.

From Taiwan, ASUS has recently introduced its first AR glasses, the AirVision M1. These glasses are designed to function as a secondary screen, ideal for use outdoors or in situations where extra screens are necessary at home.

Taiwan-based Companies Expand into the Supply Chain for Headsets, Focusing on Optics, Chips, and Assembly

TrendForce analyst P. K. Tseng said that a critical aspect of the transformation for VR head-mounted devices is the increasing need for key components that are lighter and more compact, particularly pancake lenses, which are gaining importance due to their contribution to volume reduction.

However, the technological complexity and higher cost of manufacturing these advanced optical components mean that suppliers, such as GSEO and Young Optics, are relatively limited. This presents a blue ocean market opportunity, likely attracting more manufacturers to develop pancake lens components.

Furthermore, the trend is expected to drive demand for smaller-sized panels. While mainstream LCD panels continue to be widely used, the advent of devices like the Apple Vision Pro is anticipated to increase the adoption rate of Micro OLED panels.

Additionally, as standalone virtual devices become more mainstream in product design, and as the need for processing large volumes of image and sensor data independently by SoCs grows, demand will rise for dedicated chips used in VR and AR devices. For instance, MediaTek is rumored to be developing an exclusive AR chip for Meta.

System or device assembly is a key area of focus for Taiwan-based companies, particularly evident in the efforts of major ODMs like Quanta and Foxconn. These companies are enhancing their VR and AR hardware manufacturing through various strategies, including partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, and investment initiatives.

In the VR device supply chain, the strength of system assemblers lies in their ability to offer comprehensive product solutions, which expands the options available to prospective clients. The assembly of VR and AR devices presents unique challenges due to the necessity for high-quality image rendering and real-time motion capture. Numerous components are involved in the process.

Not all VR and AR device brands can develop head-mounted devices completely in-house, as demonstrated by companies like Meta and Sony. For newer market entrants, securing a comprehensive product solution that allows for future customization is a more desirable strategy. This demands that system assemblers have significant expertise in relevant technologies and ODM capabilities. As such, as opportunities in the VR and AR market continue to emerge, these assemblers are well-prepared to offer solutions for head-mounted devices.

Generative AI and Added-Value from Applications Will Sustain Future Growth Momentum

Beyond hardware, the focus on creating more content and valuable applications will be a major topic in the next phase of VR industry’s development, with generative AI poised to play a pivotal role.

Taking gaming as an example, VR game development is known to be exceedingly time-consuming, requiring developers to dedicate substantial amounts of time to coding. As a result, the games often lack diversity, customization, and meaningful game mechanics.

However, leveraging generative AI can expedite the game development process without sacrificing quality or increasing costs. Recent market analyses suggest that the adoption of generative AI could significantly reduce the time required to create XR learning modules from the 5-10 days typically seen in 2021 to less than 30 minutes today.

Consequently, major game engine providers like Unity are seizing this business opportunity. In mid-2023, Unity introduced a suite of generative AI development solutions tailored for VR game production. These solutions can be employed to create characters, objects, assets, and sound effects, thus significantly reducing development costs.

According to TrendForce’s research, global shipments of VR head-mounted devices are projected to register a slight year-on-year drop of 1.8%, but the annual total is still expected to surpass 9.3 million units.

Furthermore, with the releases of many new products ranging from chips and peripherals to complete systems, many of which were showcased at this year’s CES and MWC, there is strong bullish sentiment regarding the development of the VR industry. The strategies of major manufacturers for VR and AR devices also demonstrate intense efforts to explore new use cases beyond existing applications, or to expand into other commercial sectors such as remote assistance, virtual learning, and simulation training.

Additionally, in many countries, VR and AR are now being incorporated into medical treatments, such as psychological therapy and physical rehabilitation. Although the progress in promoting VR and AR technologies still depends on factors like pricing, specifications, and user experience, the expansion into new application markets is a positive development, particularly given the current shortage of content.

Therefore, the added-value provided by new applications will be a key determinant of the VR market’s growth momentum. Furthermore, the efficiency of using generative AI in content production holds the potential to propel device manufacturers into the next technological generation.

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(Photo credit: Apple)