The research institution TrendForce held its AnnualForecast 2024 Seminar on November 3, where they delved into discussions about global wafer foundry trends, the applications of AI, the dynamics of AI servers, and the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

Joanne Chiao, analyst from TrendForce, observed that while AI servers have experienced robust growth over the past two years, AI chips account for just 4% of wafer consumption, limiting their impact on the overall wafer industry. Nevertheless, both advanced and mature processes offer business opportunities. The former benefits from the desire of companies like CSPs to develop customized chips, leading them to seek the assistance of design service providers; while the latter can consider venturing into sector such as power management ICs and I/O solutions.

Persisting US export restrictions continue to affect China’s foundries, causing delays in their expansion plans. Furthermore, the regionalisation of wafer foundry services is exacerbating issues related to uneven resource distribution.

Due to lackluster end-market demand and fierce market competition, the capacity utilization rate of 8-inch wafer foundries continue to decline until the first quarter of the upcoming year. Inventory adjustments are underway in the fields of industrial control and automotive electronics. Chinese foundries are more willing to offer competitive prices, and outperforming their counterparts in Taiwan and Korea in terms of order performance.

In the realm of 12-inch wafer foundry services, success relies on technological leadership and exclusivity. Competition isn’t as intense as it is with 8-inch wafers. This resurgence is driven by inventory replenishment, the demand for iPhone 15, select Android smartphone brands, and the need for AI chips. A moderate recovery is expected in the latter part of this year.

TrendForce indicates that, with the expansion of processes beyond 28nm, mature process capacity is expected to occupy less than 70% of the capacity of the top ten foundries by 2027. Under the pressure to transition towards mature processes, China is anticipated to account for 33% of mature process capacity by 2027, with the possibility of further increases.

It’s noteworthy that Japan is actively promoting the revival of its semiconductor industry and, through incentives for foreign companies establishing fabs, may secure 3% of advanced process capacity.

TrendForce’s analyst, Frank Kung, predicts that the shipment of Nvidia’s high-end GPU processors will exceed 1.5 million units this year, with a YoY growth rate of over 70%, expected to reach 90% by 2024. Starting from the latter half of this year, Nvidia’s high-end GPU market will transition primarily to H100. As for AMD, its high-end AI solutions are mainly targeted at CSPs and supercomputers. The AI server market, equipped with MI300, is expected to experience significant expansion in the latter half of this year.

In the 2023-2024 period, major CSPs are poised to become the primary drivers of AI server demand, with Microsoft, Google, and AWS ranking among the top three. Additionally, the robust demand for cloud-based AI training is expected to propel the growth of advanced AI chips, which may, in turn, stimulate growth in power management or high-speed transmission-related ICs in the future.

Lastly, concerning HBM, TrendForce’s senior research vice president, Avril Wu, mentioned that as Nvidia’s H100 gradually gains momentum, HBM3 is set to become the industry standard in the latter half of this year. With the launch of B100 next year, HBM3e is poised to replace HBM3 as the mainstream memory in the latter half of the following year. Overall, HBM plays a pivotal role in DRAM revenue, with expectations of an increase from 9% in 2023 to 18% in 2024, potentially leading to higher DRAM prices in the coming year.
(Image: TechNews)

According to Economic Daily News, industry insiders said that Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) is in talks to acquire land and facilities from AUO’s Singapore plant for its first 12-inch fab. The estimated investment for this project is a substantial US$2 billion. VIS is making a strategic move to specialize in producing advanced chips for the automotive industry.

AUO is scheduled to hold a conference on October 31st, and VIS will follow suit on November 7th. Both companies are currently in a pre-conference quite period and haven’t made any official comments on the recent rumors.

Per reports, AUO has been gradually relocating its equipment from its Singapore plant back to Taiwan. Following a model where AUO sold its L3B fab and related facilities in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan, they plan to sell this Singapore plant to VIS. Notably, this Singapore plant is conveniently located just an eight-minute drive away from TSMC’s Singapore plant (SSMC), and the transaction is estimated to be worth over a billion dollars.

The Singapore plant in question was acquired by AUO in 2010, and it specializes in the production of 4.5th generation low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) display panels and also has some capacity for AMOLED displays. However, the land use contract for this plant expired during the pandemic. AUO then redirected the plant’s focus towards supporting display production. However, with a decrease in post-pandemic notebook demand, AUO’s strategy in Singapore shifted from manufacturing to establishing itself as a regional service center.

Recent developments show that AUO has begun a significant production line adjustment.  They’re transforming the Longtan Aspire Park in Northern Taiwan into a hub for mass-producing Micro LED technology and integrated automotive display modules. Insiders suggest that AUO’s LTPS production line in the Singapore plant has already started moving to Longtan Aspire Park, where they’re gearing up for Micro LED technology development and eventual mass production.

Regarding AUO’s Singapore plant, the company recently stated that they are conducting a thorough evaluation of the operational efficiency of their various plants worldwide. The production schedule for the Singapore plant extends until early 2024, and they’ll subsequently assess the equipment and assets. The company is in the process of discussing and evaluating the related strategies, and they haven’t made any final decisions yet. AUO’s Singapore plant employs approximately 500 people, and they are committed to following local regulations to safeguard their employees’ rights.

In an earning calls last year, Chairman of VIS, Leuh Fang, revealed that the company already operates five 8-inch fabs. Fab 5 still has the potential for increased wafer production, but due to the challenges of acquiring new 8-inch equipment, establishing a brand-new 12-inch fab in Singapore makes more sense if customer demand necessitates capacity expansion.

This development isn’t entirely surprising, as there’s a precedent for fab transactions between AUO and VIS. In late April 2021, AUO sold its L3B plant in the Hsinchu Science Park, along with its related equipment, to VIS for NT$905 million (pre-tax).
(Image: AUO)

GlobalWafers has achieved a milestone by successfully advancing silicon carbide (SiC) crystal growth to 8-inch wafers, aligning with major international players in the industry. The company foresees the commencement of small-scale shipments of 8-inch SiC products in Q4 2024, with substantial growth expected in 2025, surpassing the proportion of 6-inch wafers by 2026.

Accourding to CTEE, Doris Hsu, Chairwoman of GlobalWafers, shared that the yield for 8-inch SiC crystal growth has been excellent, with ample room for further expansion, currently exceeding 50%.

The company emphasizes its readiness with 8-inch SiC crystal growth, cutting, grinding, and polishing capabilities, with sample deliveries set for the first half of next year.

Hsu highlighted customers’ eagerness for GlobalWafers to expedite the transition from 6-inch to 8-inch SiC production, aiming for an “8-inch dominant, 6-inch secondary” approach. The increasing demand for 8-inch SiC is primarily driven by automotive customers.

In terms of technology, SiC is moving from 6-inch to 8-inch wafers due to increased demand. TrendForce’s insights indicated, “Currently, the silicon carbide industry is mostly using 6-inch wafers, accounting for nearly 80% of the market share, while 8-inch wafers make up less than 1%. Expanding the wafer size to 8 inches is considered crucial for further reducing the cost of silicon carbide devices.”

From a cost perspective, 8-inch wafers indeed offer substantial advantages, but the challenge of yield has consistently plagued SiC. TrendForce’s earlier research suggests that, when it reaches maturity, an 8-inch wafer’s selling price is approximately 1.5 times that of a 6-inch wafer, and the number of die an 8-inch wafer can produce is about 1.8 times that of a 6-inch SiC wafer, significantly improving wafer utilization.

While GlobalWafers currently manufactures SiC substrates in Taiwan, the future SiC epitaxy will take place in the United States, with plans to expand with two additional substrate and two additional epitaxy facilities.

The production of SiC crystals involves high-temperature and closed-environment growth, which demands meticulous furnace design and crucible material selection, adding complexity to equipment and operations.

GlobalWafers has designed and developed specialized SiC crystal growth furnaces, enhancing material quality control and lowering crystal growth costs. SiC’s high hardness and brittleness make wafer processing challenging, but GlobalWafers employs higher process accuracy and more efficient wafer handling methods to achieve ultra-thin SiC wafer processing.

(Image: GlobalWafers)

According to a report by Bloomberg, Yoshihiro Seki, Secretary-General of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and a member of the Japanese parliament, has announced that the government is planning to allocate an additional ¥900 billion for the construction of TSMC’s Fab 2 in Kumamoto, Japan. Furthermore, an extra ¥590 billion in subsidies will be provided to support the construction of a wafer fab by the Japanese semiconductor startup Rapidus.

Seki emphasized that subsidies usually cover about one-third of the total investment. With measures like training Japanese engineers and collaborative R&D with local companies, this subsidy could increase to potentially cover up to half of the investment. He also noted that the specific amount remains subject to change as the additional budget has not been finalized yet.

The Japanese government initiated the “Strategy for Semiconductors and the Digital Industry” in 2021 to address economic risks and prepare for the wave of digitalization. At that time, they already provided ¥476 billion in subsidies for TSMC’s Kumamoto 1st Fab. The current subsidy marks an expansion of these efforts.

The local government Kumamoto is eagerly anticipating TSMC’s presence. Ikuo Kabashima, the Governor of Kumamoto Prefecture, recently proposed “New Airport Concept Next Stage” that envisions using the airport as a hub for semiconductor imports and exports over the next decade. This plan aims to stimulate the clustering of semiconductor-related industries and contribute to regional development centered around Kumamoto.

Moreover, the Japanese government has pledged to provide ¥330 billion in funding to enable Rapidus to construct a 2nm wafer fab in Hokkaido. These substantial subsidies underscore the Japanese government’s commitment to these semiconductor projects.

In response to the Japanese government’s additional subsidies, Tetsuro Higashi, Chairman of Rapidus, stated in an interview with Jiji Press on the 24th that apart from the new factory being built in Chitose, Hokkaido, “We also plan to construct second and third factories, and they will also be situated in Chitose, Hokkaido.” Rapidus’s 2nm chip R&D/production facility, Chitose Fab IIM-1, located in the Chitose Meimeimei World industrial park in Chitose, Hokkaido, commenced construction in September. The trial production line is expected to start in April 2025, with mass production slated to begin in 2027.

The semiconductor foundry, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), held an online briefing on October 25th to unveil its 3Q 2023 operational report. UMC achieved consolidated revenue of NT$57.07 billion, marking a 1.4% growth compared to the previous quarter’s NT$56.3 billion in 3Q23. However, it’s essential to note that this quarter’s revenue decreased by 24.3% in comparison to 3Q 2022.

In 3Q, a 35.9% gross margin yielded a net profit of NT$15.97 billion and an EPS of NT$1.29. The first three quarters of 2023 saw revenue at NT$167.575 billion, marking a 20.5% decline from 2022. The gross margin for this period remained at 35.8%, resulting in a net profit of NT$47.795 billion and an EPS of NT$3.87.

UMC’s Co-president, Jason Wang, highlighted that the company’s performance in the 3Q was boosted by the growing demand in the computer and communication sectors. This was further enhanced by ongoing improvements in product offerings and favorable exchange rates. Notably, despite a 2.3% decrease in overall wafer shipments, the revenue and gross margin remained robust compared to the previous quarter.

Delving into the terminal product market, products like LCD controllers, Wi-Fi, encoders and decoders, and touch IC controllers stimulated demand in the computer application sector. Additionally, the demand for RF front-end ICs and network chips contributed to the shipment volume in the communication sector.

Looking ahead to the 4Q, Wang said that the computer and communication sectors are gradually recovering in terms of short-term demand. In contrast, the automotive market remains challenging, and customers are adopting a cautious approach in managing inventory levels.

UMC foresees that the expansion of capacity at Fab 12A P6 in Nanjing in 2024 will provide significant support, further boosting revenue contributions for 22/28-nanometer technologies.

UMC’s estimate for the 4Q indicates that wafer shipments are projected to decline by 5%, with the average selling price remaining stable. Capacity utilization is expected to decrease from 67% in the previous quarter to a range of 61-63%, which will consequently impact the gross margin. It is estimated to decrease from 35.9% in the 3Q to a range of 31-33%.

Regarding capital expenditure, Q3 saw approximately $570 million spent, a 30.49% decrease from the previous quarter and a 25.39% decrease from 3Q 2022. Cumulative capital expenditure for the first three quarters reached around $2.4 billion, showing a 52.69% increase compared to 2022. The total 2023 capital expenditure remains at $3 billion, with 90% allocated to 12-inch capacity and 10% to 8-inch capacity.

(Image: UMC)