TrendForce’s latest investigations find considerable discrepancy between prices for graphics DRAM products in the contract market and in the spot market. Quotes for graphics DRAM products continue to rise in the contract market as the severe undersupply situation persists. Furthermore, the supply fulfillment rates for orders from some medium- and small-size clients have been hovering around 30%. This undersupply situation is expected to persist through 3Q21, during which graphics DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 8-13% QoQ. Regarding the spot market, on the other hand, the value of ETH experienced continued uptrend from the start of 2021 until May, thereby driving up the demand for graphics cards, regardless of them belonging to the newer or older series. At the height of the graphics card boom, spot prices of graphics DRAM products were up to 200% higher than contract prices. Demand from miners for graphics cards are expected to be relatively muted before cryptocurrencies return to their previous bullish trends, and the gap between the spot and contract prices of graphics DRAM products will likely narrow in 3Q21 as a result.
TrendForce expects four key factors to continue driving up graphics DRAM prices in the contract market. First of all, demand in the PC market remains high, particularly for gaming products. Secondly, DRAM suppliers' production capacities allocated to most clients are constrained by the fact that Nvidia bundles its GPUs with graphics DRAM, meaning DRAM suppliers have prioritized capacity allocation to Nvidia as opposed to smaller clients. Thirdly, both the Xbox Series X and PS5 are equipped with GDDR6 16Gb chips, which is different from GDDR6 8Gb chips. As the two chips are non-interchangeable, once DRAM suppliers commit their production capacities for one, they can no longer produce the other using the same batch of wafers. Finally, since there has been a resurgence of server DRAM orders, DRAM suppliers are still prioritizing the production of these products as they are a mainstream market product. As various products each compete over limited DRAM production capacities, graphics DRAM contract prices are expected to undergo an increase going forward. In particular, medium- and small-size OEMs/ODMs may likely face double-digit percentages increases.
Sharp drop in values of cryptocurrencies has caused spot prices of GDDR5 and GDDR6 products to fall
Regarding the spot market, although spot prices for GDDR6 products has been undergoing a slight drop since May, they are still nearly 100% higher than the average contract prices. Conversely, there is almost no difference between spot and contract prices for GDDR5 products. Looking at the reasons behind the slide in spot prices of graphics DRAM products, a sharp drop in the values of cryptocurrencies is the most significant contributor apart from the excessively large difference between spot and contract prices. The recent bearish movement of cryptocurrencies has resulted in a sharp drop in incentives for miners. In turn, this has led to a corresponding drop for older graphics (such as the Nvidia GTX 1660, which features GDDR5 DRAM), which have no other sources of demand. GDDR5 prices hence entered a significant decline. With regards to newer graphics cards, however, there is still a baseline level of demand for them thanks to purchases by gamers. Furthermore, these newer graphics cards, much like the new generation of game consoles, feature GDDR6 DRAM. Therefore, due to the current demand for GDDR6 products, their price drop in the spot market is lower compared to GDDR5 products.
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