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DRAMeXchange: Outperformed 4Q PC shipment bring the optimistic 1Q10 PC markets

17 December 2009 Semiconductors

    2009/12/17--- According to DRAMeXchange, 1Q10 NB shipment decline will merely down to below 10% compared with the 15%~20% historical pattern and 18% in 1Q09 given the positive impact by Chinese Year sales and new platform launch.(Intel’s Calpella& Netbook). We have seen the recovering demand and orders from OEM that ODMs will likely keep the production line fully operated during the Chinese New Year break. As for MB shipment, we DRAMeXchange expect the 2%~5% QoQ growth in 1Q10 given the inventory built-up for New Year’s Holiday sales. 
PC market had been sharply dropped from 3Q08 due to the global financial crisis but soon recovered from the 1Q09 quarter end. However, inventory pressure has hurt the PC vendors in 2008 year end that they tend to reveal conservative perspective toward the market. According to DRAMeXchange, PC market growth is comparably stable with less disturbed by financial crisis. European and American market showed the recovery pattern from 2Q09 that PC vendors have gradually aggressively strengthened the shipment momentum.
Benefited from the replacement effect from DT to NB, Windows 7 launch and continuously new NB products development, 3Q09 PC shipment reached at peak in 2009 to 23%QoQ along with the high growth 28.5%QoQ NB shipment respectively.
 According to DRAMeXchange, 4Q has been considered as the slow season in terms of NB-ODM that October is regarded as the shipment peak and shipment November and December will decline accordingly. However, given the strong inventory built-up for Windows 7 new model, Oct. shipment merely grew 7.4% MoM, which is less than our expectation for 10% MoM. However, the outperformed thanksgiving and optimistic Christmas sales has credited to the upside Nov. shipment MoM from -5.2% to -4.1% along with the Dec. shipment from -13.4% MoM to -7.2% MoM.
As for motherboard shipments, 4Q09 shipment pattern will indicate the declining pattern from Oct. to Dec. given the 3Q09 peak and less demand in 4Q09. According to DRAMeXchange, overall PC shipment growth will be recorded at 2.9% QoQ while NB shipment will grow 11.9%QoQ in 4Q09.

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