[News] Memory Giants’ HBM Focus Could Limit DRAM Growth Through 2026; Taiwan Firms Boost DDR4

Global DRAM capacity growth is expected to remain limited through 2026, as major DRAM makers in Korea and the U.S. focus on HBM and advanced-node transitions, Commercial Times reports. As the report highlights, this shift is tightening supply of conventional DDR4 and mainstream DRAM, with Taiwan’s Nanya Technology and Winbond emerging as key stabilizers in the market.

Three Giants Chart Cautious, HBM-Focused DRAM Expansion

The report, citing analysts, paints a detailed picture of how leading DRAM makers are expanding their capacity. Among them, Samsung is steadily upgrading its Pyeongtaek fabs: P3 is expected to reach 115,000 wafers per month by end-2026, P4 will start second-phase mass production by Q2 2026 at 60,000 wafers, and construction on the new P5 fab is set to resume in October 2025, with production planned for late 2027.

However, the report notes that Samsung is taking a cautious approach overall, prioritizing 1c-nanometer and HBM4-generation products.

SK hynix, on the other hand, also prioritizes its capacity expansion on HBM, as well as advanced packaging and vertical stacking technologies to strengthen its position in the AI server supply chain. The report suggests its new M15X fab is set for completion in early Q4 this year, dedicated mainly to HBM3e and HBM4.

Micron, meanwhile, has delayed most of its new capacity ramp-ups, as its timeline highlights the company’s focus on HBM and packaging integration before 2026, Commercial Times reports.

The report points out Micron’s Taiwan A3 (P2) fab is being converted into an advanced packaging line, while the first phase of its Boise fab in the U.S. is complete, with mass production set for 2027. In Japan, the Hiroshima fab will add 25,000 wafers per month, also starting production by late 2027.

Taiwan DRAM Makers Ramp Up Capacity Amid Global DDR4 Tightness

In contrast, Taiwan DRAM suppliers are rapidly increasing their presence in conventional DRAM. Nanya Technology’s Fab 5A, with a monthly capacity of around 60,000 wafers, has completed its transition to the 1B/1C-nanometer nodes, ensuring stable output of DDR4 and specialty DRAM products, the report adds.

According to MoneyDJ, Nanya indicated that shipments of 16Gb DDR5-5600 chips, based on its 10nm-class second-generation process (1B), have reached around 10%. DDR5-6400 chips are meeting design targets, while third- and fourth-generation processes (1C/1D) are progressing on schedule in trial production. The company also said it continues to boost the sales mix of DDR4 and LPDDR4 to meet market demand, MoneyDJ notes.

Commercial Times also suggests that Winbond’s Kaohsiung KH fab is advancing from 25nm to 20nm technology, with an initial capacity of 15,000 wafers per month, expanding supply for DDR4 and application-specific DRAM.

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(Photo credit: SK hynix)