Contract DRAM prices are expected to surge significantly, with Micron leading. Spot market sellers are holding back due to strong outlook, causing DDR4 scarcity and DDR5 price hikes. AI's evolution from training-centric HBM to agent-driven CPU and conventional server DRAM demands will broadly boost the memory market.

Key Highlights

• Contract Market Trend: DRAM contract prices for the fourth quarter are anticipated to see significant increases, with Micron's price hikes being more pronounced than Korean suppliers due to production capacity.
• Spot Market Condition: A strong price outlook is leading sellers to withhold inventory, with module suppliers pausing quotes. DDR4 remains the most scarce, while DDR5 prices are also climbing.
• AI Architecture Evolution: AI development is transitioning from a "training" phase, centered on GPUs and HBM, to an "AI Agent" era in the coming years, focusing on CPU and DRAM collaborative operations.
• Dual-Engine Memory Demand Growth:
  • Training Phase: HBM's value in server bills of material continues to rise, driven by extensive GPU computing needs.
  • Agent Era: Task complexity will ignite explosive growth in demand for CPUs and conventional server DRAM, with server DRAM bit demand projected for substantial increase.
• Conclusion: AI's comprehensive advancement will generate widespread memory demand, initially led by HBM, followed by robust growth in conventional server DRAM driven by AI agent applications, making all types of memory products indispensable cores in the AI era.

Table of Contents

1. Market Update
2. TrendForce's View
   • Comparison of AI Training, Inference, and Agent

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