Contract negotiations for 1Q26 are delayed, while spot prices remain high and stable. Major manufacturers report strong earnings with depleted inventory, shifting capacity toward high-margin AI products, tightening conventional DRAM supply. Robust AI demand offsets weaker consumer sentiment caused by price hikes. With intensifying competition in next-gen HBM, the seller's market persists, and prices are projected to rise significantly in the first half of the year.

Key Highlights

• Market Status: Contract negotiations remain sluggish pending post-holiday consensus; spot prices are stagnant at high levels but remain firm.
• Manufacturer Trends: Major suppliers report strong earnings due to optimized product mixes. With depleted inventory, capacity is shifting to high-margin HBM and server applications, squeezing conventional supply.
• Supply & Demand: Robust AI demand is offsetting downward revisions in consumer electronics shipments caused by rising device prices, maintaining an overall undersupply.
• HBM Development: Competition is intensifying for next-gen high-speed specifications as suppliers aggressively push mass production verification to gain market share.
• Price Outlook: Driven by CSP demand and supply constraints, the seller's market continues, with contract price growth expected to accelerate significantly in the first half of the year.

Table of Contents

1. Market Update
2. TrendForce’s View
   • SK hynix and Samsung’s DRAM OPM

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