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Mobile DRAM contract prices show a clear regional gap, with Chinese clients paying notably higher increases than US peers. Suppliers plan aggressive catch‑up hikes for US customers to narrow this spread, while Chinese pricing may rise further amid slower negotiations. Spot DDR4, especially higher density parts, remains firm despite brief pullbacks, reflecting tight supply. Rapid memory cost inflation is sharply lifting smartphone BOM ratios, forcing brands to raise prices and accelerate model retirement to protect margins.
Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
Driven by strong AI and CSP demand alongside HBM expansion, the DRAM industry saw surged prices and volume. With supplier inventory at lows and capacity shifting to high-end nodes, general supply is tight. 4Q prices are projected to accelerate significantly as suppliers restrict sales, boosting profitability.
Mobile DRAM revenue surged due to peak season demand and soaring contract prices, intensified by supplier bidding wars. While smartphone production saw a slight short-term upward revision, rising memory costs are eroding low-end brand profitability, threatening future output. The accelerated shift to high-end specifications continues to drive prices upward amid supply tightness.
Looking to early next year, contract prices are projected to rise significantly due to low inventory and strong supplier leverage, with spot prices remaining high. While CXMT's capacity expansion moderates, its global share and revenue are expected to outperform the industry average through process upgrades and an optimized product mix.
Server DRAM contract prices surge in 2025 due to tight supply and low inventory. Cloud firms and OEMs accept price hikes, while suppliers accelerate capacity expansion to meet rising 2026 demand; further supply-demand changes warrant monitoring.
PC DRAM contract prices surged in 4Q25 due to tight supply and OEM restocking. DDR4 and DDR5 module prices keep rising, driving up PC prices and potentially dampening sales.
Surging server DRAM demand drives price hikes, consumer DRAM up over 20%. Rising costs pressure brands, 2026 shipments may drop.
Soaring memory prices increase system costs and retail prices, hurting the consumer market. TrendForce thus lowered 2026 shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles. Game console makers may abandon price cuts due to costs, shifting to high-price, profit-preserving strategies.
In 3Q25, the smartphone industry benefited from the traditional peak season and the launch of new device models. Smartphone production registered both QoQ and YoY growth. However, moving into 4Q25, the sharp increase in memory costs is expected to significantly impact the profitability of low-end smartphone brands, potentially causing these brands to make downward revisions in their quarterly production volumes. Additionally, the trend of increasing differentiation between the high-end and low-end segments continues. Therefore, the successful implementation of AI features and effective cost control measures will be critical for competitive advantage.
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