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Soaring memory prices increase system costs and retail prices, hurting the consumer market. TrendForce thus lowered 2026 shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles. Game console makers may abandon price cuts due to costs, shifting to high-price, profit-preserving strategies.
In 3Q25, the smartphone industry benefited from the traditional peak season and the launch of new device models. Smartphone production registered both QoQ and YoY growth. However, moving into 4Q25, the sharp increase in memory costs is expected to significantly impact the profitability of low-end smartphone brands, potentially causing these brands to make downward revisions in their quarterly production volumes. Additionally, the trend of increasing differentiation between the high-end and low-end segments continues. Therefore, the successful implementation of AI features and effective cost control measures will be critical for competitive advantage.
The report shows AI-driven demand reshaping the server market, with cloud and enterprise deployments accelerating, core focus on GB rack solutions and all-in-one enclosures, and partnerships to strengthen supercomputing and data-center ecosystems, with growth momentum expected to persist.
Revenue of mobile DRAM was driven by the increase of contract prices in 3Q25, and accomplished a QoQ growth of nearly 30% in market value. Revenue is looking to continue ascending in 4Q25 after another significant hike of contract prices. With that said, suppliers may shift their resources to product lines of higher profitability or better strategic positions under constraints of capacity, which would further tighten the supply of mobile DRAM and subside the scale of delivery, thus generating negative interferences to the market value of mobile DRAM.
Global Server Market – Trends in 4Q25 and Outlook for 2026
TrendForce shows AI-driven DRAM demand surge, creating supply tension. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron plan to expand DRAM production through 2026.
3Q25 DRAM market achieved strong price and volume growth, fueled by cloud demand and HBM. Low inventories forecast significant price acceleration in 4Q25, boosting manufacturers' profitability.
DRAM contract prices rise, vendors hoard. PC manufacturers face supply constraints. Spot market shrinks, module prices expected to increase. Inventory levels decline, especially for Chinese CSPs, enterprise server OEMs, and smartphone brands. Mobile DRAM prices will rise sharply.
Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
This report notes AI investment drives cloud and server demand as CSPs and OEMs expand capex and deployment, with in-house chips advancing.
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