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3Q25 DRAM market achieved strong price and volume growth, fueled by cloud demand and HBM. Low inventories forecast significant price acceleration in 4Q25, boosting manufacturers' profitability.
DRAM contract prices rise, vendors hoard. PC manufacturers face supply constraints. Spot market shrinks, module prices expected to increase. Inventory levels decline, especially for Chinese CSPs, enterprise server OEMs, and smartphone brands. Mobile DRAM prices will rise sharply.
Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
This report notes AI investment drives cloud and server demand as CSPs and OEMs expand capex and deployment, with in-house chips advancing.
CXMT, through expansions and yield improvement, has once again taken the crown for YoY growth of output bit for 2026. The supplier’s major product, mobile DRAM, highly corresponds to DRAM products required by China, the largest production base of smartphones in the world. China’s subsidy policy, as well as the shortage of LPDDR4X generated by production shift among South Korean and US suppliers, have facilitated a swift expansion of CXMT’s market share.
Server DRAM prices are projected to surge due driven by tight supply and robust cloud service provider demand. To secure supply, clients are aggressively negotiating long-term agreements, incentivizing manufacturers to expand capacity. Manufacturers are shifting production focus to high-margin DDR5. Market anticipates persistent undersupply, with substantial new capacity taking years to come online, while process upgrades accelerate short-term. PC DRAM also rises, but less significantly.
The DRAM market is experiencing a significant price surge driven by robust demand from Cloud Service Providers and AI applications, coupled with tight supply. Both contract and spot prices are rising substantially. Manufacturers, facing depleted inventories, are actively increasing capital expenditure and negotiating long-term supply agreements, with double-digit price increases anticipated to continue.
AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.
DRAM prices are surging across contract and spot markets due to severe supply constraints. Capital expenditure shifts to advanced products, limiting traditional bit growth.
4Q25 mobile DRAM contract prices have risen sharply due to tight supply-demand and competitive bidding among chipmakers, with smartphone applications seeing particularly large increases. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2026. The recent steep DRAM price rises may force up retail prices of end products and weigh on demand.
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