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Contract price forecasts were raised sharply, led by PC DRAM, with further upside potential. High spot costs stalled advanced chip trading, shifting demand to mature products. CXMT is accelerating process upgrades to expand global share, focusing on high-capacity DDR5 and HBM to boost localization.
US memory tariffs face cost hurdles. Asian makers stay low intention due to high expenses; costs will likely shift to buyers, favoring friend-shoring over US expansion.
Driven by robust demand for AI servers and high-performance computing, the memory market has entered a super-cycle of price hikes starting from 2H25. Escalating memory costs are forcing brands to raise end-device prices and scale back low-end models to cope with cost pressures. Against this backdrop, the year-on-year decline in global smartphone production for 2026 could widen to approximately 15%, or potentially even higher, under a pessimistic scenario. However, given the absence of signals indicating a halt in price increases and persistent supply tightness, most brands are choosing to maintain their established procurement volumes with suppliers to secure resource allocations. It is noteworthy that this wave of memory price increases is driving up the retail prices of various electronic devices, further evolving into a broader risk of consumer electronics inflation.
In 2026, benefiting from strong capital expenditure by North American CSPs, AI server shipments and revenue share are expected to rise significantly, driving supply chain expansion and the development of liquid cooling technologies. Industry players such as Foxconn, Quanta, Wistron, and MGCooling are actively deploying rack-level and data center system liquid cooling solutions as well as overseas production capacities. Despite lingering geopolitical variables, overall market momentum remains robust.
AI infrastructure upgrades are driving structural memory demand, making DRAM and NAND Flash critical resources. Heavy CSP investment is pushing prices and revenue to record highs. With persistent shortages giving suppliers pricing power, the market is poised for sustained long-term growth.
Micron acquires PSMC’s Tongluo facility to accelerate capacity expansion, alongside agreements for DRAM technology licensing and advanced packaging. This strategic partnership resolves Micron’s AI-driven bottlenecks and enhances PSMC’s mature process capabilities, significantly boosting future industry supply and technical depth.
Manufacturers prioritize server demand, cutting PC supply. This prompts a sharp upward revision in 1Q price forecasts, urging buyers to secure supply.
The 1Q26 DRAM market has entered a seller-driven super-cycle fueled by robust AI demand. Capacity crowding is triggering broad price surges, with forecasts being revised upward. As manufacturers prioritize high-margin server orders, the PC and consumer sectors face severe shortages and soaring costs.
Driven by strong demand from US and China CSPs, 2026 AI server shipments will surge. Key drivers include NVIDIA and Google's ASICs, accelerating liquid cooling adoption. While general server refresh cycles aid growth, supply chain lead times remain a potential bottleneck.
Driven by robust AI demand, the memory market has shifted to a seller's market. Manufacturers are prioritizing server capacity, causing severe shortages and low inventory for consumer electronics. Structural imbalances are driving up prices, forcing consumer sectors to face supply constraints and specification downgrades, with shortages expected to persist.
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