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AI demand and surging prices boosted server DRAM revenue. Buyer stockpiling depleted inventory, fueling an upcycle.
Cloud giants are drastically expanding Capex for AI infrastructure, driving explosive demand for GPU/ASIC racks. However, immense computing demand faces structural component shortages. Meanwhile, OEMs are transitioning into AI system integrators targeting sovereign clouds.
AI demands and chip upgrades drive smartphone storage growth despite high costs. Brands raise base specs, making large capacities the new standard.
Memory prices will rally soon. To avert shortages, clients are signing long-term volume contracts to fund supplier expansions.
Mobile DRAM revenue hit new highs driven by surging contract prices, confirming a seller-driven super cycle. Major manufacturers shifting capacity to AI applications has tightened supply, allowing CXMT to expand in mature nodes. Looking ahead, sharp price hikes will boost supplier profits, but high costs are forcing smartphone brands to cut production, leading to a market of rising prices and shrinking volumes.
In 4Q25, DRAM revenue surged due to AI-driven demand and soaring contract prices. Inventory depletion and prioritization of AI caused severe shortages, boosting profitability. For 1Q26, despite seasonality, aggressive cloud procurement is expected to accelerate price hikes significantly, with supply growth relying mainly on tech migration.
North American CSP CAPEX expansion drives dual demand for NVIDIA and custom chips. ODMs like Foxconn benefit from rack solutions and are expanding US/Mexico production. Power leaders Delta and LiteOn are shifting toward high-voltage, liquid cooling, and system-level integration to support high-density computing.
Propelled by surging contract prices, Mobile DRAM revenue broke the $10 billion mark in 4Q25, a quarterly jump of over 30%. Entering the off-peak 1Q26, while bit demand is expected to contract, the significant hike in contract prices should still drive revenue to new highs. In terms of market structure, a highly concentrated "Big Four" landscape has formed, comprising Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China’s CXMT. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Nanya and Winbond have seen revenue surge as major players exit the low-density market, though their overall market share remains limited.
Contract prices rose post-holiday, led by DDR5. Despite weakening consumer electronics demand and a quiet spot market, supply remains structurally tight due to robust AI/server needs and limited production capacity. Significant new output remains distant, ensuring continued market shortages.
Global smartphone production showed moderate growth in 2025, with Samsung and Apple tying for the top spot in market share. However, driven by sharply rising memory prices, overall production volume is projected to see a significant downward revision in 2026. Brands will experience polarization based on their differing product portfolios. Overall, the memory price supercycle will be the key variable reshaping the global smartphone market landscape in 2026.
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