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Propelled by surging contract prices, Mobile DRAM revenue broke the $10 billion mark in 4Q25, a quarterly jump of over 30%. Entering the off-peak 1Q26, while bit demand is expected to contract, the significant hike in contract prices should still drive revenue to new highs. In terms of market structure, a highly concentrated "Big Four" landscape has formed, comprising Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China’s CXMT. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Nanya and Winbond have seen revenue surge as major players exit the low-density market, though their overall market share remains limited.
Contract prices rose post-holiday, led by DDR5. Despite weakening consumer electronics demand and a quiet spot market, supply remains structurally tight due to robust AI/server needs and limited production capacity. Significant new output remains distant, ensuring continued market shortages.
Global smartphone production showed moderate growth in 2025, with Samsung and Apple tying for the top spot in market share. However, driven by sharply rising memory prices, overall production volume is projected to see a significant downward revision in 2026. Brands will experience polarization based on their differing product portfolios. Overall, the memory price supercycle will be the key variable reshaping the global smartphone market landscape in 2026.
Driven by robust AI demand and supply shortages, Korean makers raised quotes, triggering a sharp rise in Server DRAM contract prices. Supply growth lags behind demand despite capacity shifts. Consequently, buyers are accepting price floors in long-term agreements to secure future allocation.
February consumer DRAM trading slowed due to the Lunar New Year, causing price gains to narrow. Despite buyers digesting inventory, structural shortages persist as main suppliers focus on advanced lines. With spot premiums intact and post-holiday demand expected to recover, the bullish outlook remains supported.
PC DRAM contract prices surged significantly this quarter, widening gains. Despite downgraded annual notebook shipment forecasts, expectations of rising device costs boosted short-term demand, lowering OEM inventory. With suppliers prioritizing OEMs, component scarcity drove contract prices higher, while the spot market temporarily consolidated.
Inventory lows and AI demand drove 4Q25 DRAM revenue via price hikes rather than volume. Samsung regained the market lead. Taiwanese firms benefited from mature node shortages. With supply remaining tight, 1Q26 prices are projected to accelerate significantly.
The DRAM market faces shortages. Suppliers hold low inventory and strong pricing power, driving contract prices up, notably in PC and Server sectors. Buyers accept hikes to secure supply, squeezing module margins. Only mobile inventory remains stable in this seller's market.
Looking ahead to 2026, major global CSPs are significantly increasing capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, focusing on high-density GPU racks and self-developed ASICs to optimize costs. North American giants are leading the adoption of NVIDIA solutions and proprietary chips, driving the share of AI servers and ASICs. Meanwhile, OEMs like Dell and IEIT are aggressively deploying AI solutions amidst intense competition and geopolitical challenges.
AI fuels HBM/storage price hikes, pushing Memory revenue past Foundry. While weak mature nodes and capacity barriers slow Foundry, Memory's output efficiency and price volatility drive its market dominance through 2026.
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