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Geopolitical tensions have been rising as the US-China trade dispute escalates, and the global server supply chain has undergone notable changes as a result. With regard to L6 server motherboard production, the first notable wave of relocation since the start of the trade dispute in 2018 involved server ODMs moving their production lines from Mainland China to Taiwan. Then, due to the construction of data centers across the Asia-Pacific region and ODMs’ need to increase their STM lines, Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Thailand also came under consideration for capacity expansion. More recently, the trade dispute has taken another significant turn with the US Commerce Department further broadening the semiconductor technology export rules. In view of this development, some US-based cloud service providers (CSPs) have been conducting more internal discussions about adding server production lines outside Taiwan as a precautionary measure. Hence, from a longer-term perspective, TrendForce believes the core parts of the server supply chain will eventually shift to Southeast Asia and the Americas.
According to TrendForce’s research, the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries rose by 6% QoQ to US$35.21 billion for 3Q22 as the release of the new iPhone series during the second half of the year generated significant stock-up activities across Apple’s supply chain.
TrendForce reports that the recent easing of tight supply for components has led to rising shipments for enterprise servers. Furthermore, ODMs for the most part have been able to sustain the momentum of data center build-out with the demand from ByteDance and the tenders issued by Chinese telecom companies. Nevertheless, the performance of the enterprise SSD market on the whole has been impacted by falling NAND Flash prices. For 3Q22, the NAND Flash industry’s enterprise SSD revenue dropped by 28.7% QoQ to US$5.22 billion. Furthermore, all enterprise SSD suppliers recorded a negative performance for the period as well.
According to TrendForce’s investigation, NAND Flash bit shipments fell by 6.7% QoQ for 3Q22, and the overall NAND Flash ASP also kept sliding. On account of the unfavorable market situation, the NAND Flash industry recorded a total revenue of around US$13.71 billion for 3Q22. The QoQ revenue decline reached as much as 24.3%.
Based on the latest data and research, TrendForce has further corrected down the projected YoY growth rate of whole server shipments for 2023 to 2.8%. Three factors are behind this revision. First, lead time has started to return to its usual length for most orders related to server components from 3Q23 onward. Seeing this, server OEMs and cloud service providers (CSPs) have also begun to correct the component mismatch issue by lowering demand for items that are in excess while maintaining a constant inventory level for items that are still in tight supply.