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TrendForce’s latest findings reveal that weaker consumer demand has persisted through 3Q24, leaving AI servers as the primary driver of memory demand. This dynamic, combined with HBM production displacing conventional DRAM capacity, has led suppliers to maintain a firm stance on contract price hikes.
TrendForce’s latest findings show that recent economic data points to a steady cooling of inflation in the US market, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September to prevent a potential economic slowdown or recession. Additionally, the complex geopolitical landscape and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election could dampen consumer spending, posing a significant risk to year-end holiday demand. Consequently, TrendForce forecasts that total shipments of MLCCs will reach approximately 1.205 trillion units in 4Q24—representing a quarterly decline of 3.6%.
Concerns over a potential HBM oversupply in 2025 have been growing in the market. TrendForce’s Senior Vice President of Research, Avril Wu, reports that it remains uncertain whether manufacturers will be able to ramp up HBM3e production as planned next year. Additionally, the steep learning curve for achieving stable yields in HBM3e 12-Hi production makes it difficult to determine if a capacity surplus will occur.
TrendForce’s latest reports reveal that the launch of NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform, expected in 4Q24, is set to significantly drive the adoption of liquid cooling solutions. Liquid cooling penetration is projected to grow from around 10% in 2024 to over 20% in 2025. This shift will be driven by rising global ESG awareness and the accelerated deployment of AI servers by CSPs, prompting a shift from air cooling to liquid cooling systems.
TrendForce posits that the wafer foundry market is expected to see a recovery in 2025, with an estimated annual growth of 20%—up from 16% in 2024. This positive outlook comes despite the weak end-market demand for consumer products, which has led component manufacturers to adopt a conservative stocking strategy and made the average capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries fall below 80% in 2024. Only advanced processes, such as 5/4/3nm nodes used for HPC products and flagship smartphones, have managed to maintain full capacity, and this situation is expected to persist into 2025. However, the visibility in the consumer end market remains low for 2025.
