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Reports suggest that TSMC has notified its Chinese clients of a temporary suspension on shipments of advanced AI chips produced using 7nm and below process nodes. Additionally, Chinese clients seeking future advanced process projects will be subject to strict review to ensure the chips are not used for AI or other restricted purposes. TrendForce posits that if the policy takes effect, it could impact TSMC’s revenue performance and utilization rates of its 7nm and below advanced process capacity, while also affecting the future development of China’s AI industry.
TrendForce’s latest analysis reveals that the global revenue for the DRAM module market reached US$12.5 billion in 2023—a YoY decline of 28%. This drop was primarily attributed to the inventory correction period for consumer electronics following the pandemic, which drove down DRAM prices. High utilization rates by DRAM suppliers further intensified the price decline, before the market began to rebound in the second half of 2023.
The DRAM industry experienced inventory reductions and price recovery in the first three quarters of 2024; however, pricing momentum is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter. TrendForce’s Senior Vice President of Research, Avril Wu, noted that some DRAM suppliers, after achieving profitability this year, have begun planning new capacity expansions. This could lead to a 25% YoY increase in total DRAM bit output in 2025—marking a more substantial growth compared to 2024.
TrendForce reports that the focus on HBM products in the DRAM industry is increasingly turning attention toward advanced packaging technologies like hybrid bonding. Major HBM manufacturers are considering whether to adopt hybrid bonding for HBM4 16hi stack products but have confirmed plans to implement this technology in the HBM5 20hi stack generation.
The latest investigations by TrendForce reveal that Chinese foundries are set to drive the bulk of mature process capacity growth in 2025, thanks to China’s domestic IC substitution policies. It is estimated that the capacity of the world’s top 10 mature process foundries will increase by 6% in 2025, though pricing pressures will persist.
