WitsView:Large-sized Panel Shipment Decreased by 3.2% QoQ, Only TV Panel Shipment Increased against Downtrend
According to the latest survey by WitsView, the research division of TrendForce, large-sized panel shipment posted a decrease by 3.2% MoM to 54.02 million units. In 1Q10, an imbalance in panel supply and demand occurred which was caused by component shortage. In order to avoid the similar imbalance occurring in 3Q10, downstream clients restocked aggressively in preparation even though 2Q10 was the traditional slow season. In June, the shipment volume remained flat compared to the shipment volume in May. Moreover, panel makers faced the pressure of quarter-end inventory and issuing quarterly report. Therefore, in spite of the weak panel prices, panel shipment still remained at a certain level. Overall, large-sized panel shipment grew by 9% QoQ to 161 million units.
Of four applications, the only application that recorded an increase in shipment was LCD TV panels, which grew by 0.9% MoM to 16.94 million units. Among which, both <26”W and >40”W panel shipment increased by 1.3%. Panels that are applied in IT products recorded a decline; namely, LCD monitor panel shipment slid by 5.2% MoM to 17.65 million units; notebook (>12.1-inch) panel shipment dipped by 1% MoM to 16.23 million units, while netbook (<12.1-inch) decreased by 20% to 3.2 million units, the largest MoM decline. In terms of the limited nature regarding size and performance, netbooks have become less attractive to consumers. It is expected that the rising star Tablet PC may erode the market share, and netbook shipment may weaken gradually.
Table 1: TFT-LCD Panel Shipment in Jun-10 (K units)
WitsView indicated that the manipulating strategies of aggressive restocking from downstream vendors reflected the optimistic forecast toward end-market demand in 3Q10. However, in 2Q10, the end-market demand did not post a substantial growth even though large-sized panel shipment reached a record high. As a result, inventory level among downstream clients has been building up. Thus, while entering 3Q10, panel demand will rely on the end-market demand and downstream clients’ inventory closeout. On the other hand, when panel prices drop to the panel makers’ total cost, it may possibly trigger another capacity adjustment and tight supply of panels, which may further stimulate price rebound and shipment growth.