TrendForce reports that the recently unveiled Apple Vision Pro at this year’s WWDC is poised to revolutionize the AR/VR market with its sleek design and high-performance capabilities. However, the complexity behind its production and its limited production capacity present significant challenges, leading to a projected initial release in the US during 1H24. Furthermore, considering factors such as pricing and the absence of certain essential features, TrendForce anticipates a modest shipment volume of approximately 200,000 units for Apple Vision Pro in 2024. The market’s response will heavily depend on the subsequent introduction of consumer-oriented Apple Vision models and the ability of Apple to offer enticing everyday functionalities that will drive the rapid growth of the AR market as a whole.

TrendForce also notes that the Apple Vision Pro boasts cutting-edge hardware specifications and innovative design. However, a substantial price tag of US$3,499 and the requirement for an external power source to operate for a mere two hours pose challenges to consumer adoption. Currently, the Apple Vision Pro lacks sufficient applications for mainstream users, making it more attractive to developers and enterprise customers who can capitalize on its innovative features to create diverse applications. Consequently, the higher price point of the product is justified.

Looking ahead, Apple has the opportunity to fine-tune the product specifications based on the usage patterns of various features in Vision Pro. This will pave the way for the launch of a distinct offering, Apple Vision, which will cater to the budgetary constraints of general consumers while optimizing battery life. As such, WWDC 2023 primarily focuses on the concept of spatial computing, setting the stage for the anticipation of more practical AR applications to be showcased at WWDC 2024. These applications will be tailored towards usage in daily life, including seamless integration with other Apple products for information retrieval and effortless command execution.

Will AIGC Bring New Development Boost to MR?

According to TrendForce, it is difficult to see AIGC exerting influence in the MR field in the short term due to the need for corresponding AI models and tools to be established. Currently, the AR/VR market is not large, and coupled with the complexity of content development, it is challenging to attract AIGC’s development in this area in the short term.

Furthermore, the complexity and cost of entry into the MR field, along with limited market size, have caused many brand manufacturers to focus on small-scale commercial products. This is because such products have a high unit price and low quantity, allowing manufacturers to control the total cost within a manageable range while capitalizing on the AR/VR industry trend. However, it does not mean that manufacturers are willing to heavily invest in this market.

Overall, this is the biggest difference in strategy between Apple and these manufacturers. Apple indeed wants to aggressively develop the AR market, but the lack of market understanding and content applications led to the introduction of developer products like Vision Pro. The purpose is twofold: to allow developers to advance in content application development and to gather feedback on hardware design and features used by developers. This feedback helps Apple determine which hardware design and features to retain or discard when launching new consumer products that closely align with content application needs.