According to South Korean media The Elec’s report, due to strong demand from Chinese chip manufacturers and wafer foundries, the shortage of photomasks in the market has not eased, and it is anticipated that prices will rise in 2024.

The report notes that most photomask manufacturers, including Japan’s Toppan, DaiNippon Printing, and the U.S.’s Photronics, are currently operating at full capacity with a utilization rate of 100%. Some Chinese chip companies are even willing to pay additional fees to expedite delivery schedules.

In the field of integrated circuits, the function of a photomask is similar to the “film” in a traditional camera. With the collaboration of exposure and development processes in photolithography machines and photoresist, the pre-designed patterns on the photomask are transferred to the photoresist on the substrate, enabling mass production through image replication.

Photomasks play an indispensable role in the semiconductor chip manufacturing process, especially in advanced processes where more intricate circuit patterns require multiple layers of photomasks to aid production. For example, mature processes may require around 30 photomasks, while the latest advanced processes might demand as many as 70 to 80 photomasks to handle.

Currently, Chinese foundry giant SMIC employs Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) technology to produce 7nm chips. Compared to Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV), DUV requires more photomasks for the fabrication of multiple circuit patterns.

Toppan Printing, in its latest quarterly financial report covering July to September, anticipates a continual increase in demand for photomasks throughout 2023. DaiNippon Printing expressed agreement with this assessment in its half-year financial report for the period from April to September.

The graphic dimensions, precision, and manufacturing technology requirements of semiconductor photomasks continue to increase, with only a 3% domestication rate for high-end photomask versions in China. In the preparation of photomasks, the Chinese semiconductor photomask industry faces a situation where high-end equipment and materials are dominated by foreign manufacturers.

In the photomask industry chain, the upstream sector primarily involves equipment, substrates, light-blocking films, and chemical reagents; the midstream sector is photomask manufacturing, and the downstream sector includes chips, flat panel displays, touchscreens, circuit boards, and more.

The urgent demand for domestic substitutes for photomask versions is apparent, and the revenue scale of Chinese photomask manufacturers still has a considerable gap compared to leading overseas manufacturers.

(Photo credit: Toppan)

The semiconductor industry in China is gradually recovering in response to shifts in downstream demand in the end of November. This positive trend is reflected in the industry’s dynamics of investment and financing.

There have been nearly 40 financing events in the semiconductor industry. Sectors such as storage chips, MEMS, automotive-grade chips, third-generation semiconductors, and semiconductor materials/equipment are particularly attracting capital. Companies in the spotlight include SCY, Sinopack, YT Micro, Oritek, Analogysemi, Konsemi, and UniSiC.

SCY: Advancing Core Storage Technology 

Shenzhen-based SCY has successfully concluded Series B strategic financing, led by Xiaomi Industry Fund and joined by several upstream and downstream companies. The funds raised will be dedicated to enhancing core storage technology, research and development, furthering global strategies. SCY aims to establish its own storage brands, SCY and WeIC, in the terminal market. The company has achieved a breakthrough in the second-generation Flip Chip advanced packaging technology, with the full-scale production of its self-developed 512GB UFS3.1 storage chip. The expectation is to achieve mass production of 1TB capacity UFS3.1 next year.

Sinopack: Advancements in Ceramic Packaging 

Sinopack has completed Series B strategic financing, earmarking the capital for production line construction and research and development to stimulate the company’s second growth curve. Established in 2009, Sinopack focuses on ceramic packaging applied in optical communication, wireless communication, and other fields. The company has successfully developed precision ceramic components with core materials such as aluminum oxide and aluminum nitride. Sales revenue in the first half of 2023 has already surpassed the entire year of 2022.

YT Micro: Driving Automotive-grade Chip Innovation

Jiangsu-based YT Micro has successfully secured Series B1 round financing. The company specializes in automotive-grade chips design. With deep collaborations with numerous automotive OEMs  and automotive component companies, YT Micro has executed 300+ specified projects, resulting in millions of shipments. Future plans include increased investment in the research and development and mass production of high-performance automotive processor chips, expanding industrial ecological cooperation, and strengthening strategic business collaborations with OEMs and Tier1.

Oritek: Pioneering Intelligent Automotive Solutions

Oritek stands as China’s first provider focusing on the third generation of intelligent automotive E/E architecture. The company’s Longquan series chips cater to smart automotive terminal-side intelligent components, smart local processing unit, and integrated central computing units for parking and charging in 2023. The Longquan 560 chip was unveiled in 2023.

Analogysemi: Advancing Analog and Mixed-signal Chips

Founded in 2018, Analogysemi concentrates on analog and mixed-signal chips, applied across various markets like industrial, communication, medical, and automotive. The company has successfully entered the automotive electronics field, achieving mass production of products such as automotive-grade DC brushed motor drivers, widely used in automotive electronic components.

Konsemi: Elevating Embedded Storage Solutions

Established in November 2018, Konsemi focuses on the research and development of embedded storage controller chips and modules. It stands among the few Chinese manufacturers independently designing a complete range of embedded storage chips. With applications spanning smart TVs, set-top boxes, mobile devices, smart wearables, communication devices, drones, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles, Konsemi’s self-developed eMMC product has received certifications from mainstream manufacturers and is integrated into the supply chain of renowned brands, with sales reaching millions.

UniSiC: Leading in Power Semiconductor Device Testing

UniSiC has successfully concluded a billion-yuan strategic financing, earmarked for forward-looking product research and development and global expansion. Established in 2020, the company focuses on power semiconductor device testing and high-frequency power electronic applications. With successful developments in silicon carbide technology and securing multiple orders, UniSiC’s SiC ATE product has commenced overseas installations.

TSMC’s Chairman, Mark Liu, recently addressed the challenges posed by global fragmentation and emerging national security concerns, which may potentially lead to a slowdown in global innovation. Despite these concerns, Liu emphasized Taiwan’s ability to respond calmly. TSMC remains committed to advancing its manufacturing processes and collaborates closely with clients to establish an open innovation platform.

On November 22th, Liu spoke at a lecture organized by Chinese National Association of Industry and Commerce, Taiwan (CNAIC), focusing on “TSMC in the AI Era,” as reported by the Central News Agency (CNA). During the lecture, Liu highlighted that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, serving as a cornerstone, plays a vital role in driving advancements in AI applications.

However, he also acknowledged that the ongoing US-China chip war has brought global fragmentation and raised national security concerns, potentially slow down the pace of global innovation. Despite these challenges, Liu expressed confidence in Taiwan’s ability to handle them effectively.

In terms of  latest updates on TSMC’s global fabs, Liu mentioned positive communication with local unions in the US, showcasing TSMC’s ability to adapt and learn from new experiences. He also commended the high-quality and dedicated personality of Japanese engineers during his visit to Japan.

TSMC’s fab in Arizona, employing nearly 1,100 local staff, continues to recruit talents with plans for mass production to commence in 2025. The Kumamoto fab in Japan is expected to initiate production of 12nm, 16nm, 22nm, and 28nm processes by the end of the next year.

Regarding TSMC’s upcoming fab in Germany, the company aims to establish a specialized wafer fab focusing on automotive and industrial applications. This fab will produce 12nm, 16nm, 22nm, and 28nm processes, with construction set to begin in the second half of the next year and production slated for the end of 2027.

[News] TSMC’s Fab in Germany Progress Reports Potential Setback in Manager Selection?

Rise of Nvidia and other fabless companies, anticipating 10% growth in the next five years

Looking forward to the future tech landscape, Liu also anticipated Nvidia’s emergence as the world’s largest semiconductor company in 2023. From recent financial reports, Nvidia’s Q3 revenue reached USD 18.12 billion, surpassing TSMC’s USD 17.27 billion for the same quarter, as well as Intel’s USD 14.16 billion and Samsung Semiconductor’s USD 12.52 billion.

The rapid progress of Fabless companies also caught Liu’s eye. Fabless companies are expected to grow by around 10%, and IDMs by only 4% in the next five years. Additionally, he emphasized that semiconductor technology advances threefold every two years, projecting a 242-fold improvement over a decade.

What is “Fabless”?

Companies exclusively engaged in semiconductor design are referred to as “Fabless.” This term originates from the fact that these companies do not have their own fabrication. They are also known as “fabless semiconductor companies” due to their specialty of not owning production fab. Further categorization within fabless companies includes IC design and IP design.

Industry note that Nvidia’s growth as a fabless company is attributed to the surging demand for AI, including an optimized product portfolio. While Nvidia’s financial report mentioned geopolitical limitations and potential delays in H20’s launch, the company remains a global leader in AI computing. As for TSMC, it stands out as the most advanced pure-play foundry with its 3nm process, gradually increasing production in the second half of the year to alleviate inventory adjustment pressures within the rest of the 7nm family.
(Image: TSMC)

The latest official data from South Korea, the world’s largest memory production country, indicates a turnaround in October’s memory exports, marking the first growth in nearly 16 months. Meanwhile, the latest report from the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) anticipates a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.1% in Taiwan’s memory and other manufacturing output for this season, leading the semiconductor manufacturing industry.

These signals suggest a recovery in the memory market. Key players in Taiwan’s memory industry, such as Nanya Technology and Winbond, are expected to see significant operational momentum.

South Korea stands as the world’s largest memory manufacturing country, with Samsung and SK Hynix ranking as the top two global DRAM manufacturers, collectively holding a market share of approximately 70%. They also play a significant role in NAND Flash storage memory, with Samsung leading the global market and SK Hynix being among the top five manufacturers. The shift in South Korea’s memory export figures to growth signifies a stabilization in global memory demand, making it a crucial indicator for the industry’s recovery.

The South Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy announced on November 14th that in October, South Korea’s memory exports increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, a significant improvement from the 18% YoY decline in September.

Notably, the export rebound was led by a 12.2% growth in semiconductor packaging, and the YoY decline rate in DRAM exports also narrowed to a single digit, marking the first time in over a year.

The TSIA also cited data from the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) International Division yesterday, estimating an 8% quarterly increase in Taiwan’s foundry production value in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the memory and other manufacturing sectors are expected to see a 9.1% quarterly increase, leading all semiconductor manufacturing industries. This underscores the ongoing recovery in the memory industry.

Taiwanese memory manufacturers are optimistic about the future market outlook. Nanya Technology’s General Manager, Pei-Ing Lee, analyzing the demand side, Lee notes that the server market displayed relative weakness in the first three quarters of the year. However, with the increasing demand in cloud services, a recovery is foreseen in the fourth quarter. In the mobile phone market, there are signs of a rebound in demand in the Chinese market after experiencing a period of weakness for at least a year. Additionally, the PC market is experiencing a positive impact from the rising demand for DDR5, leading to a comparatively healthy performance.

Winbond Electronics is also expressing positive sentiment towards the upcoming market developments. Since the fourth quarter of last year, Winbond Electronics has been adjusting production in response to market weakness, initially announcing a 40% production cut. As demand improves, the recent reduction in production has been reduced to 20%, and the shipment volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. Prices are anticipated to remain stable or experience a slight decline, with overall operations not expected to be worse than the third quarter, offering a hopeful outlook for slight improvement.

Winbond Electronics anticipates that if terminal demand remains similar to or consistent with this year in 2024, with manufacturers having depleted their inventories, purchasing power will rebound.

The company’s analysis suggests that this trend will be observed across various markets, including PCs, laptops, and smartphones. Additionally, the server domain is expected to return to growth as well.

TrendForce reports indicate a price increase for both DRAM and NAND Flash starting in the fourth quarter. DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%.

(Photo Credit: Link)

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Mature process foundries are locked in a battle to uphold a 60% capacity utilization rate. Reports indicate that major players, including UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and PSMC, are slashing prices significantly for the first quarter of the coming year to salvage their capacity utilization rates. This reduction, reaching double-digit percentages and up to 15% to 20% for project customers, stands out as the most extensive post-pandemic price cut, according to UDN News.

Post-Pandemic Price Challenges in Mature Process Foundries    

This pricing adjustment is pushing the prices of mature process foundries to a new low post-pandemic, affecting the profit margins and profitability trends of related companies. Industry sources disclose that only TSMC’s prices remain robust, with almost no exception for other foundries.

To rescue capacity utilization rates, companies are aggressively tweaking their quotes. A source from an IC design company privately reveals that foundries have notified them of slow-moving business in mature processes, resulting in a direct drop in capacity utilization rates. To ensure capacity utilization rates and market share, maintaining a certain level of production scale becomes imperative, prompting a substantial reduction in quotes.

Industry sources emphasize that despite recent indications of recovery in the PC and smartphone markets, clients remain cautious due to external factors such as inflation, especially given almost a year of inventory clearance. Companies, still on edge, fear slipping back into the challenges of inventory clearance and thus maintain a conservative approach to order placement.

Currently, the recovery in order placement strength is only about 30% to 40% of pre-pandemic levels, compelling wafer foundries to intensify their price cuts to prevent orders from being lost to competitors willing to lower prices, resulting in even lower capacity utilization.

It is evident that consumer IC demand for foundry services is low, and whom focusing on 8-inch mature process are the most affected. It is mainly due to excessive duplicate orders from integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) and IC design companies in the past, leading to inventory clearance for chips such as power management ICs, driver ICs, and microcontrollers (MCUs). Some products have even shifted to 12-inch wafers, keeping the capacity utilization rates of 8-inch foundries at a low level.

Navigate Semiconductor Shifts in TSMC, UMC, VIS, and PSMC

Industry sources note that TSMC is bolstered by advanced processes, enabling them to bundle them with mature processes for sale. Moreover, TSMC’s pricing strategy for mature processes has not surged as dramatically as that of other related companies, making it more acceptable to customers.

As for UMC, the company anticipates a drop in capacity utilization rates from 67% in the last quarter to 60% to 63% in this quarter, reaching a single-season low in recent years. Due to the continuous adjustment of capacity utilization rates, the gross profit margin will drop from 35.9% last quarter to 31% to 33%, reverting to levels seen at the beginning of the pandemic in 2021.

In response to pricing issues, UMC stated that, as mentioned in a recent earnings call, there will indeed be a significant decrease in the 8-inch, but there will be no adjustments for the 12-inch. Supply chain sources reveal that UMC has reportedly offered a 5% concession, aiming to consolidate order momentum with major clients this quarter. Considering the anticipated weak demand in the first quarter of next year and to attract more order placements, UMC plans to expand the price reduction to double-digit percentages.

According to the supply chain, VIS is expected to see a price reduction of up to 5% in the second half of the year. Large-volume clients may even secure a 10% discount, with a further decrease expected in the first quarter of next year, ranging from single to double-digit percentages. The company’s management previously mentioned at a conference call that, in response to intense price competition, short-term flexible adjustments are anticipated.

Similarly impacted by conservative customer order placements, PSMC reported losses in the third quarter, with capacity utilization rates hovering around 60%. It is reported that PSMC is also gearing up to implement price reduction measures to enhance capacity utilization rates.

(Image: VIS)

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