In 3Q26, top DRAM makers are prioritizing server production, severely squeezing consumer DRAM supply; consumer contract prices are set to rise well ahead of server DRAM, while PC DRAM edges only slightly higher. In 2H26, robust mid-to-high-density demand—led by AI-driven server SSDs and networking—will support consumer DRAM. Yet limited near-term capacity additions from Taiwanese makers cannot fill the gap left by the majors' exit, so the structural shortage is unlikely to ease soon.

Key Highlights

• Capacity Reallocation Reshapes Contract Pricing: With top DRAM makers prioritizing server demand, consumer DRAM supply is severely squeezed; its contract price gains are expected to significantly outpace server DRAM, while PC DRAM rises only modestly above server levels.
• Muted Spot Market: Buyers remain on the sidelines and reluctant to chase higher prices, keeping transaction volumes limited.
• Niche Applications Sustain Mid-to-High-Density Demand: Driven by AI infrastructure, shipment growth in enterprise server SSDs and networking equipment becomes the primary demand driver for consumer DRAM in 2H26, concentrated in 8Gb and 16Gb chips.
• Structural Shortage to Persist: As major suppliers accelerate their exit from mature nodes, demand shifts to Taiwanese makers. Although they are optimizing product mixes and accelerating mass production and validation of higher-density chips, new fabs remain under construction and the added output cannot fill the gap—leaving the market undersupplied for the near term.

Table of Contents

1. Market Update
2. TrendForce’s View
   • QoQ Changes in ASP of DDR4 Consumer DRAM

<Total Pages: 2>