Rising oil prices and freight costs heighten inflation risks, with AI supporting demand while ICT stockpiling turns conservative. Prolonged geopolitical conflicts sustain high energy costs, potentially sparking global recession and monetary tightening. Consumer electronics face supply shortages and price hikes, slowing market growth. In contrast, AI servers and accelerators show steady demand, with high-end MLCC orders robust, though policies may pressure cloud providers' capital spending.

Key Highlights

• Oil prices and freight surges elevate inflation risks: Extended geopolitical tensions drive up energy and shipping costs, risking renewed global inflation, economic recession, and monetary policy tightening, impacting daily consumption and ICT sector growth.
• ICT stockpiling turns conservative: PC and smartphone markets suffer from memory and CPU shortages, with subdued stockpiling momentum; brand products see price adjustments to reflect cost pressures, heightening recession risks.
• AI sector provides support: AI servers and accelerators maintain steady demand, with high-end MLCC orders at peak levels, driven by platforms like Nvidia and cloud providers' custom chips, serving as a key market pillar.
• MLCC market divergence: High-end specs show structural tightness, while consumer applications remain ample; suppliers shift capacity to meet strong AI needs, causing delays in mid-low tier specs.
• Policy variables: Government proposals for cloud providers to secure independent power could increase capital expenditures, diluting AI investment budgets and posing risks to long-term growth.
• Overall outlook: Amid intertwined political-economic and geopolitical risks, end-user confidence weakens; MLCC market sustains AI-strong, consumer-weak pattern, requiring clients to manage inventory to mitigate volatility risks.

Table of Contents

1. Market Update
2. Trendforce's View 

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