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NVIDIA's strategic investment in Lumentum and Coherent secures critical InP laser and high‑power CW light‑source capacity, shifting supply‑chain focus from module assembly to upstream optical components. With TSMC's silicon photonics platform and advanced OSAT capabilities, CPO is poised to play a central role in high‑power switches and high‑density AI racks at 800G/1.6T and beyond. Future CPO penetration will depend on light‑source stability and capex pace, serving as a vital engine for AI fabric scalability.
Google integrates TPU v7/v8, Ironwood racks, and Apollo OCS into a unified fabric, shifting the scaling unit from servers to racks. This drives 800G+ optical module penetration above 60% by 2026. Supply chain focus has shifted to laser chips and MEMS capacity. Strategic decisions must now track 800G/1.6T transceiver deployments, alongside GPU/TPU shipments, to accurately gauge the AI compute cycle.
