[News] TSMC Raises 2025 Sales Growth to 30%, Forecasts 8% QoQ USD Revenue Growth amid Exchange Headwinds

With Q2 earnings surging to new high despite strong Taiwan Dollar and tariff risks, TSMC projects its third-quarter revenue to land between US$31.8 billion and US$33.0 billion, which translates into an 8% sequential increase or a 38% year-over-year increase at the midpoint, according to the company.

CFO Wendell Huang noted the outlook is based on an exchange rate of $1 to NT$29. For Q3, gross margin is expected at 55.5%–57.5%, and operating margin at 45.5%–47.5% — both slightly below Q2’s 58.6% and 49.6%.

Notably, TSMC has raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to around 30% in U.S. dollar terms, up from 25%, on the back of booming AI demand. Chairman C.C. Wei pointed to strong momentum in 3nm and 5nm chip orders, driven by continued growth in the HPC platform, as the key driver.

In the second quarter, shipments of 3nm accounted for 24% of total wafer revenue; 5nm accounted for 36%.

Impact of Unfavorable Exchange Rates on Margins

In terms of the unfavorable exchange rate, Huang noted that TSMC will focus on the fundamentals of its business and lean on the other factors to manage through it, such as leadership, technology development, pricing, capacity utilization, cost reduction, and technology mix. He reiterated that the company believes a long-term gross margin of 53% and higher remains well achievable.

According to Huang, based on the current exchange rate of $1 to NT$29, the New Taiwan dollar is expected to appreciate by 6.6% quarter-over-quarter, which will reduce third-quarter revenue by the same percentage in NT terms and lower gross margin by approximately 260 basis points (2.6%).

Huang explained that the sensitivity of the revenue to dollar-NT exchange rate is nearly 100%. That is, every 1% appreciation of NT against US dollar will reduce TSMC’s reported NT revenue by 1%. The sensitivity of TSMC’s gross margin to the same 1% exchange rate change is about 40 basis points, Huang added.

Read more

• [News] Ahead of TSMC Earnings: 10 Brokers Weigh in on Q3 Outlook, Currency Pressures, Capex Plans & More