[News] TSMC Unfazed by NVIDIA GPU Curbs in China, Eyes Mid-40%+ AI Revenue CAGR Through 2029

TSMC held its third-quarter 2025 earnings call today, with one of the key concerns focused on whether restrictions on NVIDIA’s GPU sales to China would affect the company’s outlook.

Addressing questions about how China’s AI development and the NVIDIA GPU restrictions might influence TSMC’s projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for its AI accelerator revenue, Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei expressed confidence in the company’s customers, including those in graphics and ASICs.

He noted that TSMC continues to see solid growth momentum in AI and emphasized that the restrictions will not affect the company’s mid-40 percent CAGR target for its AI-related business through 2029, or potentially even higher, despite limited access to the China market.

Wei expressed strong confidence in the momentum of AI. As noted by TechNews, during the earnings call he stated that the growth in the number of tokens required for AI computation is “almost doubling every three months.” This explosive trend, he said, shows that the computing demand for generative AI is still far from reaching its peak.

As indicated by TechNews, when asked why token growth has outpaced the company’s AI-related revenue CAGR, he explained that as customers transition to more advanced nodes, chip computing capacity increases significantly, allowing each generation to process a greater number of tokens. He noted that this enables overall wafer demand to continue expanding steadily, even as token counts grow exponentially, supported by ongoing improvements in process performance.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)