The 1Q26 DRAM price rally is led by Server and PC applications, while a compensatory price increase for smartphone LPDRAM cannot be ruled out for 2Q26. With conservative NAND Flash capacity expansion and market inventory at low levels, conditions remain favorable for continued price increases in 2Q26. Although continuous sharp increases in memory prices have caused a decline in demand for consumer end-products, the overall memory market is expected to remain in shortage, underpinned by strong demand for AI servers. Simultaneously, impacted by significantly rising manufacturing costs, the reshuffling of the smartphone market will accelerate, with high-end brands standing to benefit relatively more.

Key Highlights

• Contract price negotiations for 1Q26 are nearing conclusion: Server and PC applications are leading the price gains, while the Smartphone sector reserves room for price catch-ups in 2Q26.
• NAND Flash expansion is more conservative than DRAM: With limited overall capacity growth, prices are projected to sustain their upward trend in 2Q26.
• Soaring memory costs are forcing end-product price hikes: This has dampened consumer buying sentiment; however, driven by the continued optimistic outlook for AI servers, overall memory demand remains robust.
• The market will remain in shortage in the short-to-medium term: This supply tightness is expected to suppress the recovery momentum of consumer end-products.
• A memory price "super-cycle" will trigger a market reshuffle: The smartphone market is expected to consolidate, with high-end brands benefiting relatively more.

Table of Contents

1. Updates on Memory Contract Market
   • ASP Projections for Different DRAM Product Categories
   • ASP Projects for Different NAND Flash Product Categories
   • Price Trends of LPDRAM and UFS Products
2. Updates on Smartphone Market
   • Projected Market Shares of Top 10 Smartphone Brands for 2026

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