[News] AMD Forecasts Strong Q4 After Record Q3 Sales, Flags China and 2026 AI Chip Ramp-up

Riding on a string of major future collaborations with OpenAI and Oracle, which are expected to boost growth in the coming years, AMD reported a record $9.2 billion in Q3 revenue. Looking ahead, it forecasts a strong Q4, with revenue around $9.6 billion, plus or minus $300 million, above analysts’ consensus of $9.15 billion, according to Reuters.

Although AMD expects 25% year-over-year revenue growth and a 4% sequential increase in Q4, its margin outlook left some investors underwhelmed. CNBC notes that the company’s 54.5% guidance merely matches analysts’ forecasts.

Still, revenue from AMD’s data center segment, which includes its AI chip business, remains the company’s main growth driver, soaring 22% in the September quarter to $4.3 billion, above the $4.09 billion analysts had forecast, Reuters reports. The company expects another double-digit gain in the segment in Q4, fueled by strong server demand and the ongoing ramp of MI350 series GPUs.

China Updates

Notably, AMD emphasized at its earnings call that Q4 guidance excludes revenue from Instinct MI308 shipments to China, a stance it also highlighted last quarter.

According to the Yahoo! Finance transcript, CEO Lisa Su described the MI308 situation as still fluid, noting that while the company has received some shipment licenses and appreciates the administration’s support, it is continuing to evaluate customer demand and market potential, with updates expected in the coming months.

Su added that AMD maintains work-in-process inventory ready to serve the market if it opens, though the scale of shipments will depend on how demand evolves, as per the transcript.

2026 Outlook

Though the company has secured major AI hardware investments from partners including OpenAI and the U.S. Department of Energy, reflecting optimism that spending on advanced processors will stay strong, concerns persist that the AI boom could bring rising risks, as it remains uncertain whether these massive investments will deliver the returns needed to justify the hype.

However, amid growing skepticism, Lisa Su reportedly said AMD’s deal with OpenAI—starting with 1 gigawatt of MI450 GPUs in the second half of 2026 and eventually totaling 6 gigawatts of Instinct accelerators—could supercharge its data center AI business, potentially driving more than $100 billion in revenue in the coming years.

Su also said, according to the Yahoo! Finance transcript, the company is not providing full guidance for 2026 yet, but “based on current trends, we see a very strong demand environment heading into 2026.” She added that the MI355 GPUs are expected to continue ramping in the first half of 2026, while the MI450 series will come online in the second half, driving a sharper acceleration in AMD’s data center AI business during that period.

In addition, early MI450 deployments will primarily focus on Helios, its rack-scale solutions, though other form factors will also be available, Su noted.

On margin concerns, Lisa Su acknowledged that AMD’s data center GPU business usually sees margins improve as new products ramp, after an initial transition period. While 2026 guidance remains off the table, she stressed the focus is on boosting revenue and gross margin dollars, while gradually lifting the margin percentage.

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(Photo Credit: AMD)