[News] Will the Investment Pay Off? Trillions Poured Into AI, Yet Chips Reportedly Last Only 3–5 Years

According to MoneyDJ, citing Wall Street Journal, the AI boom has triggered one of the most expensive building waves in history. In just three years, major tech companies have poured more into AI data centers, chips, and energy than the U.S. spent constructing the interstate highway system over four decades.

The Wall Street Journal states that massive investments in AI infrastructure are stirring concerns that the optimism around AI may not deliver. The report notes that while developing AI models is highly costly, the returns will need to be even greater to justify the spending.

An analyst cited by Wall Street Journal estimates that AI infrastructure spending in 2023 and 2024 would only pay off if consumers and companies purchase around $800 billion worth of AI products over the lifetime of those chips and data centers.

However, the report also notes that data center chips have limited lifespans, as rapid advances in AI technology quickly erode their value. Analysts cited in the report estimate that most AI processors remain useful for only three to five years.

When AI Revenue Meets Data Center Reality

The Wall Street Journal reports that OpenAI’s Sam Altman has committed the company to paying Oracle roughly $60 billion per year on average for data center servers in the coming years. By contrast, OpenAI is expected to generate only about $13 billion in revenue from paying customers this year.

In addition, Wall Street Journal, citing analysts, adds that the surge in AI infrastructure spending will require $2 trillion in annual AI revenue by 2030. For context, that figure exceeds the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia, and is more than five times the size of the entire global subscription software market, as the report points out.

Bloomberg notes that AI companies are seeing rapid revenue growth: OpenAI expects sales to triple to $12.7 billion this year, while rival Anthropic already generates more than $5 billion annually. Yet, as Bloomberg points out, those figures pale in comparison to the soaring costs ahead. Analysts cited by Bloomberg estimate that global data center spending will reach $2.9 trillion between 2025 and 2028—roughly equivalent to the GDP of France.

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