[News] NVIDIA’s OpenAI Mega-Deal: AI Boom Proof or Customer Bailout Amid Antitrust and Conflict Concerns?

AI giants are joining forces, again. On September 22, OpenAI and NVIDIA unveiled a landmark strategic partnership to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems for the ChatGPT maker’s next-gen AI infrastructure. NVIDIA plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as the new systems come online, with the first phase set for the second half of 2026 on its Vera Rubin platform.

The deal, CNBC reports, was hammered out through a whirlwind of virtual discussions, private meetings, and last-minute contract tweaks, without bankers involved. Altman and Huang’s prior meeting during President Trump’s U.K. state visit a week earlier reportedly helped smooth the path, allowing the president to be briefed in advance.

The mega deal, however, has sparked questions ranging from antitrust risks and partner conflicts to whether it signals a genuine AI boom or simply backing a cash-hungry customer. Here’s a quick look at the key issues.

Wall Street Divided on NVIDIA-OpenAI Deal

Wall Street analysts are weighing the implications. Investor’s Business Daily, citing Mizuho Securities, notes that bulls see it as a clear signal of the booming AI infrastructure market, while skeptics argue it’s simply NVIDIA supporting a cash-hungry client.

Critics reportedly argue the deal is essentially NVIDIA propping up one of its biggest customers, funneling cash to OpenAI that circles back to buy NVIDIA chips. The AI chip giant, as per the report, has also been dubbed the “investor of last resort,” stepping in to support OpenAI and previously boosting ventures like the CoreWeave IPO.

Nonetheless, an analyst cited by the report calls the deal a smart strategic move for NVIDIA, which has limited avenues for deploying its free cash flow. The firm notes that the $100 billion investment in OpenAI could potentially generate $300 billion to $500 billion in revenue for the company.

Navigating Partner Tensions

On the other hand, as highlighted by CNBC, while OpenAI deepens its ties with NVIDIA, it must navigate high-stakes relationships with other major partners, with Microsoft leading the charge. Sources cited by the report suggest OpenAI informed Microsoft—its principal shareholder and primary cloud provider—just one day before the deal was signed.

In early 2025, Microsoft lost its role as OpenAI’s exclusive computing provider. CNBC reported this coincided with the launch of the Stargate Project, a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank to pour billions into U.S. AI infrastructure. OpenAI said Oracle, along with Arm, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, will be key technology partners in building the new data centers.

In June, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang reportedly told Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella that NVIDIA was moving ahead with a deal with OpenAI, CNBC adds.

Antitrust Issues

In addition, as noted by Reuters, NVIDIA’s planned investment has sparked questions about its effect on other clients and the wider AI hardware market, as the tech behemoth controls over half of the market for the GPUs that power AI data centers.

Experts cited by Reuters further caution that the deal might incentivize NVIDIA to favor OpenAI, potentially granting faster access or preferential terms. Meanwhile, Investor’s Business Daily also notes that the partnership poses a competitive challenge for fellow AI chipmakers AMD and Broadcom.

Notably, Reuters suggests that NVIDIA relies heavily on a small group of top customers, with the largest two accounting for 23% and 16% of revenue in Q2, per filings that keep the buyers anonymous.

According to Tom’s Hardware, OpenAI, currently a non-profit, is moving toward becoming a for-profit public benefit corporation. The deal with NVIDIA grants financial participation but no governance rights and could require regulatory approval in states where OpenAI is registered, including Delaware and California, the report notes.

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(Photo credit: OpenAI)