According to a report from TechNews citing industry sources, the US is considering expanding sanctions, with the next focus on China’s mature semiconductor processes. In addition to imposing tariffs, the determination of the chip’s origin will be strictly enforced. The standard, which previously considered the final packaging point, will now trace back to the front-end manufacturing and photomask origin.

Reportedly, it is believed that the US will significantly escalate the trade war after the presidential election, intensifying export restrictions on China. Currently, new tariffs of over 10% are being imposed on products from countries other than the US, and there are plans to impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods.

It is noteworthy that the US government previously announced the imposition or increase of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, semiconductors, lithium batteries, and other products, with the semiconductor tariff rate set to rise from 25% to 50% by 2025.

The sources cited by the report believe that tariffs do indeed reduce imports and encourage the production of industries such as semiconductors, computer equipment, and steel in US factories. However, the cost is very high, potentially offsetting any overall benefits. Research indicates that tariffs lead to higher prices for US consumers and factories that rely on foreign inputs, and reduce exports of certain US goods that face retaliatory measures.

Meanwhile, for the future direction of the US, it can be inferred that chips manufactured in Taiwan and South Korea may also face tariffs.

Due to the intensification of the US-China tech war, the US is considering expanding export restrictions, targeting the mature processes that China is starting to shift towards. There have been continuous reports of China expanding its mature processes, raising global concerns about overcapacity in mature processes. The US government may in the future use tariff barriers to prevent products containing chips made with Chinese mature processes from being sold overseas at low prices.

The sources cited by TechNews further report that the determination standard will change from the final packaging location to whether the origin of the chip and photomask is manufactured in China.

In addition, Bloomberg also reports that the US administration is considering using the “Foreign Direct Product Rule” (FDPR). Under this rule, if a product uses any US technology, the US can implement controls. The US government has also notified companies such as Tokyo Electron and ASML that if they continue to supply advanced chip technology to China, the US will consider imposing the strictest trade control measures.

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As memory prices and demand rise, memory manufacturers Nanya Technology and Winbond have resumed normal production, no longer reducing output as they did last year. TrendForce and industry sources cited in a report from Liberty Times Net also indicate that memory shipments will continue to recover in the third quarter.

Reportedly, memory manufacturers’ utilization rates have reached 90% to 100%, surpassing the 60% to 70% utilization rates of mature process foundries.

Last year, in response to market conditions, Winbond adjusted its inventory and reduced production at its Taichung plant by up to 30-40%. This year, as market demand has rebounded, production has resumed, with capacity now at full utilization, producing 58,000 wafers per month.

Moreover, Winbond’s Kaohsiung plant has introduced new capacity equipment, increasing monthly production from 10,000 to 14,000 wafers and upgrading processes from 25nm to 20nm.

Winbond’s General Manager, Pei-Ming Chen, stated that the company is currently operating at full capacity utilization, with shipments exceeding production. This indicates a continuous decrease in inventory levels and a rise in customer demand. He then expected the second half of the year to be better than the first, with DDR3 and DDR4 contract prices increasing each quarter, aiding the company’s core profitability.

Nanya Technology Increases Production, Aims to Turn Losses into Profits in Q3

Nanya Technology adjusted production levels dynamically last year, reducing output by up to 20%. However, production has gradually increased this year.

Nanya Technology anticipates improving DRAM market conditions and prices quarter by quarter, with the industry overall trending positively and a chance to return to profitability in the third quarter.

Nanya Technology reported consolidated revenue of NTD 3.363 billion (roughly USD 103 million) for June, up 0.35% month-on-month and 36.83% year-on-year, marking the second-highest level this year. Accumulated consolidated revenue for the first half of the year was NTD 19.424 billion (roughly USD 596 million), an increase of 44.4% year-on-year.

On the other hand, chairperson Doris Hsu of GlobalWafers, a major silicon wafer manufacturer, recently stated that currently, there is stronger demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and memory applications, while demand in automotive and industrial applications is weak. Demand for mobile applications is increasing, and customers are continuing to digest inventory, leading to a more conservative approach towards procurement.

TrendForce reports that a recovery in demand for general servers—coupled with an increased production share of HBM by DRAM suppliers—has led suppliers to maintain their stance on hiking prices. As a result, the ASP of DRAM in the third quarter is expected to continue rising, with an anticipated increase of 8–13%. Among this, DDR3 & DDR4 prices expected to increase by 3–8% in Q3.

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(Photo credit: Nanya Technology)

The intense price competition among Chinese mature process foundries is nearing its end. According to a report from the Economic Daily News, it has indicated that Hua Hong Semiconductor, the second-largest foundry in China, plans to raise prices by 10% in the second half of the year.

This marks the end of a two-year decline in mature process foundry prices, signaling that the industry is emerging from its correction phase and moving towards a healthier path. Consequently, Taiwanese foundries specializing in mature processes, such as UMC, VIS, and PSMC, are also expected to see a rise in their prices, boosting their operations.

Industry sources cited in the same report also note that due to geopolitical factors, Chinese foundries primarily focus on the domestic market, which is gradually diverging from the customer base of Taiwanese foundries. However, if Hua Hong’s price increase materializes, it would be a significant indicator.

Since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, mature process foundry prices have been continuously adjusting downward. A price increase would indicate a rebound in demand for consumer electronics.

Reportedly, the industry sources believe that if the market for mature process foundries rebounds, UMC will be the primary beneficiary. As demand for consumer electronics and mobile phones picks up, related products such as OLED panel driver ICs, image signal processors (ISP), and WiFi chip will see improvements in inventory levels across the computer, consumer, and communication sectors, reaching healthier levels.

VIS and PSMC are also expected to benefit from the industry’s recovery trend. Although VIS does not comment on pricing issues, the company previously mentioned that inventory levels for consumer electronics are expected to return to normal by 2024. Despite ongoing adjustments in industrial and automotive inventories, the company remains optimistic about moderate growth in the second half of the year.

PSMC is anticipated to experience a gradual return of orders as well. The company emphasizes its commitment to adapting to market competition and continuously adjusting its production and sales strategies. With the positive effects of these adjustments becoming evident and customer inventory levels returning to healthy standards, along with new business opportunities at the Tongluo plant, PSMC expects its revenue to gradually recover.

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• [News] Foundries Face Price Pressure in Mature Process Amid Oversupply, Indicating Q3 Price Decline
  

(Photo credit: UMC)

Wafer foundries’ mature process continues to suffer from oversupply, facing further price reduction pressure. According to a report from Economic Daily News, industry sources from IC design companies revealed that in this quarter, prices for certain mature processes have dropped by single-digit percentages (1% to 3%). Given the current situation, prices in the third quarter may drop by another 1% to 3%, leading to a continuous correction in overall price trends starting from the third quarter of 2022, marking the ninth consecutive quarterly decline.

Industry sources cited by the same report pointed out that this wave of price reductions in mature process was triggered by Chinese foundries two to three years ago, with Taiwanese manufacturers subsequently following suit. Major Taiwanese foundries involved in mature processes, include UMC, Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), and PSMC, have all been closely monitoring the latest market changes.

Regarding rumors of further price cuts in the market, UMC stated that the company would not make further comments. VIS, on the other hand, mentioned during a recent earnings call that the price pressure from Chinese foundries has affected its operations, but the company will not engage in these price-cutting competitions. It is expected that as market inventory adjustments approach completion, prices should gradually stabilize without significant fluctuations. PSMC indicated that they have not particularly felt any price pressure.

Local foundries stated that even though customers from specific applications, including driver ICs and other IC design houses, turn to Chinese foundries in order to enjoy cheaper manufacturing prices, they will not engage in price-cutting. After all, price wars may never see an end. Instead, Taiwanese foundries will continue to increase orders from other applications to gradually boost capacity utilization rates.

In the third quarter of 2022, as market conditions reversed, Chinese foundries initiated price cuts, prompting some Taiwanese manufacturers to make slight concessions in pricing. The pricing gap between Chinese and Taiwanese foundries generally remained at double-digit percentages.

To cope with a period of market inventory adjustment, some foundries are more flexible in negotiations, while others hope for customers to “exchange volume for price.”

Overall, foundry pricing has experienced eight consecutive declines up to this quarter. However, with no significant recovery in most end-demand sectors, IC design companies assess that foundry pricing in the third quarter may continue to trend downward.

Industry sources cited by the report believe that Chinese foundries receive official subsidies, allowing them to disregard profit considerations. Previously, IC design houses’ price negotiations with Chinese foundries were mostly successful, which results in single-digit percentage price reductions recently. However, after the third quarter, the room for further price reductions may diminish, indicating that the price seems to be soon hit the bottom.

However, fin order to cope with the current macroeconomic fluctuations, some IC design companies mentioned that after suffering from being “burned” by high inventory in the past, they now tend to wait for clear demand from customers before starting production. In recent years, the proportion of production sent to Chinese foundries has been increasing due to cost considerations. With the continuous expansion of mature process capacity in Chinese foundries, the pressure of oversupply may persist for a while longer.

According to TrendForce’s previous report on the fourth quarter of 2023, global semiconductor foundry revenue rankings showed that the top three semiconductor foundries globally were TSMC, Samsung, and GlobalFoundries, which are all less exposed to mature nodes.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)

Weak demand in mature process has triggered another wave of foundries’ price reductions. According to a report from Economic Daily News citing industry sources, some foundries have been continuously adjusting their quotes for mature process downward by single-digit percentages (4% to 6%) this quarter.

With mature process production capacity continuing to expand in China, it is reportedly estimated that prices may decrease further in the second quarter, leading to a cumulative reduction of around 10% for the first half of the year.

Overview of Foundries’ Price Reductions in Mature Process

According to the same report citing sources, IC design companies that previously tape out to Chinese foundries primarily focused on driver ICs. However, recently, some power management IC companies have gradually increased orders to Chinese foundries. Currently, the price difference between foundry services in Taiwan and China can be as high as 20% to 30%.

Regarding this wave of price reductions in mature process, an unnamed sources from the IC design industry cited by the report disclosed that the price reduction for Taiwanese foundries is at least in the low single-digit percentage range (1% to 3%), while for Chinese foundries, it is in the mid-single-digit percentage range (4% to 6%). If the order volume is large, prices can be negotiated even lower, or different discount methods may be available.

Reportedly, as Chinese foundries continue to increase their production capacity for mature process, supported by subsidies from the Chinese government, they maintain considerable flexibility in pricing strategies. As long as customers are willing to provide a certain quantity of orders, prices above the variable costs can be negotiated. Therefore, there is indeed room for further price reductions in the second quarter.

Regarding mature process, IC design companies cited in the report mention that the high-demand 28-nanometer process still faces supply shortages and may even see price increases. However, for the 40-nanometer and 55-nanometer processes, where the increase in production capacity outpaces the return of demand, price reductions are essentially the only option.

With China’s significant investment in mature nodes, it is positioned at a time when the global chip industry is poised for recovery. According to a recent TrendForce’s data, China currently has 44 operational fabs, with an additional 22 under construction. By the end of 2024, 32 Chinese fabs will expand their capacity for 28-nanometer and older mature chips.

TrendForce predicts that by 2027, China’s share of mature process capacity in the global market will increase from 31% in 2023 to 39%, with further growth potential if equipment procurement progresses smoothly.

However, compared to the proactive pricing strategies adopted by Chinese foundries, Taiwanese foundries have been relatively firm in their pricing.

For example, TSMC emphasizes that while it has faced significant pricing pressure from counterparts in China recently, the company is not prepared to engage in a price war. Instead, it anticipates seizing opportunities to attract orders from European and American clients. TSMC aims for moderate growth this year.

Regarding IC pricing, IC design companies cited by the report acknowledge that although their IC production costs have decreased, customers also demand price reductions. Caught between customers and foundries, both of which are larger in scale than IC design companies, it is difficult to predict how well operations will perform this year amidst ongoing challenges.

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(Photo credit: TSMC)