The Taiwan government has devised the “Two-year solar power promotion plan” with the aim to increase 1.52 GW (1,520MW) of grid-connected capacity between July 2016 and June 2018. However, EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, expects that total grid-connected capacity would be 1,072MW by the end of plan, which means only 71% of the original goal would be achieved.
According to Taiwan’s Bureau of Energy, the grid-connected capacities of solar energy were 299.34MW, 107.98MW, and 414.66MW respectively in 2H16, 1H17 and 2H17. From July 2016 to the end of 2017, the new grid-connected capacity was 821.98MW in total, only about 54% of the original goal. In addition, there was no new capacity in January 2018, which means that the remaining capacity of 698.02MW needs to be grid-connected between February and June in order to achieve the plan mission.
The feed-in tariff (FiT) in Taiwan will be slightly reduced since July 1st this year, which will stimulate companies to install and grid-connect the capacity before June 30. “This will also drive the installed capacity during the first half of this year”, says EnergyTrend analyst Rhea Tsao, “directly benefiting the plan”. However, based on the production capacity of Taiwanese module makers and development plans of EPC companies, it is difficult to install the remaining 700 MW capacity within five months. EnergyTrend estimates the grid-connected capacity at about 250MW in the first half of this year, which will make the total new grid-connected capacity during the two-year plan at about 1,072MW, a fulfillment rate about 71%.
Although the mission of Two-year solar power promotion plan may not be reached, the solar market in Taiwan will show stable growth. The annual new grid-connected capacity recorded 248.3MW, 360.81MW, and 522.64MW in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively, a total of 1,767.7MW.
With the implementation of new renewable energy laws and regulations, release of new space, laying of feeder, increase of module capacity, and maturing social environment, Tsao believes that the domestic solar market in Taiwan will see prospects in the second half of 2018 at the earliest, and the domestic demand may reach 800~900MW, an annual increase of 53~72%. This figure will have a chance to reach 1GW in 2019.