Concerns over a potential HBM oversupply in 2025 have been growing in the market. TrendForce’s Senior Vice President of Research, Avril Wu, reports that it remains uncertain whether manufacturers will be able to ramp up HBM3e production as planned next year. Additionally, the steep learning curve for achieving stable yields in HBM3e 12-Hi production makes it difficult to determine if a capacity surplus will occur.
TrendForce reports that significant capital investments have occurred in the memory sector due to the high ASP and profitability of HBM. Senior Vice President Avril Wu notes that by the end of 2024, the DRAM industry is expected to allocate approximately 250K/m (14%) of total capacity to producing HBM TSV, with an estimated annual supply bit growth of around 260%. Additionally, HBM’s revenue share within the DRAM industry—around 8.4% in 2023—is projected to increase to 20.1% by the end of 2024.
