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In 2018 CES, South Korea Winter Olympics and MWC, 5G is undoubtedly a hot topic, companies including Qualcomm, Intel, Huawei, Samsung, Ericsson, ZTE and major mobile operators are all discussing 5G development blueprint. With the full Release 15 specification to be completed around the June 2018 by the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), the competition for 5G technology will begin in 2018, says TrendForce.
Apple’s launch of iPhone X has led to a wave of 3D sensing technology, bringing its key component—vertical cavity surface emitting laser (VCSEL)—into the spotlight. However, the number of VCSEL suppliers with mass production capacity is very limited due to technical barriers, leading to short supply of VCSELs and thus delaying Android camp’s plan to follow suit. TrendForce estimates the penetration rate of 3D sensing in smartphones will grow from 2.1% in 2017 to 13.1% in 2018, while Apple remains the major adopter.
The growth momentum in global smartphone market will remain weak in 2018 due to lower demand and less replacement purchases, says TrendForce. Faced with continuous rise in the costs of upstream components, downstream mobile phone vendors have to re-consider the pricing or adjust the specification of end-products to cope with the cost pressures. The distribution of market share among the major players is expected to remain generally the same as last year. Therefore, TrendForce estimates the global smartphone production for 2018 at around 1.5 billion units, a 2.8% annual growth only, down from previously expected 5%.
Apple’s upcoming launch of HomePod has intensified the competition in smart speaker market. According to TrendForce, Amazon Echo still tops the ranking of smart speaker products in 2018 with a market share in shipment of 50.8%, although down from 69.1% in 2017. The share of Google Home is projected at 21.6%, ranking the 2nd. The new Apple HomePod is expected to reach a share of 8.9%, while the numbers for Alibaba’s and Xiaomi's smart speakers will be 6.3% and 5.1% respectively.
Self-driving taxi services that combine ridesharing and autonomous vehicles have undergone road tests in 2017, and most companies expect to launch their commercial self-driving taxi services formally in 2021, which will tremendously change the future of transport. TrendForce estimates the CAGR of self-driving taxis to reach 81% from 2018 to 2023.