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2016/10/24
Prices of LCD panels for smartphone displays will remain high to the end of 2016 as there is no letup in demand, according to the latest analysis by WitsView, a division of TrendForce Prices of mid-range and low-end smartphone panels have risen for three consecutive quarters this year Moreover, strong short-term demand for mid-range and high-end smartphones with FHD resolution screens are also pushing up prices of FHD Cell panels
“Various factors and events have reduced LCD panel supply during 2016, such as the earthquake in Taiwan, fab closures and changes in product strategies of some panel makers,” said Boyce Fan, senior research manager of WitsView “At the same time, smartphone demand in China has noticeably picked up rather than remaining stagnant as in the previous two years The strong Chinese smartphone market together with the series of disruptions to the panel supply has created a significant supply-demand imbalance in the smartphone panel market in the recent period”
The dramatic upswing in smartphone panel prices is mainly attributed to the steady growth in large-size panel demand since the start of the third quarter Panel makers have allocated more of their production capacities to satisfy the large-size segments of the market, and this in turn has cut into their smartphone panel capacities
Based on WitsView’s research, prices of 5-inch HD Cell panels reached US$4 on average in September and may climb to US$5 in October Prices of 55-inch FHD Cell panels also stayed in the high US$6~7 range and is expected to increase again before the end of year As the supply in the competing AMOLED market is also very tight, smartphone makers may have to use LTPS LCD instead for some of their upcoming devices Thus, some of the demand shift from AMOLED panels to FHD resolution LTPS LCD panels
Prices of smartphone will encounter strong downward pressure after the first quarter of 2017
“On the whole, prices in the LCD smartphone panel market have risen three quarters in succession because supply has yet to caught up with demand,” Fan pointed out “Downward price corrections will occur when the additional production capacities for different types of panels become available The general price trend of FHD panels will change direction when the newly built LTPS LCD panel fabs begin operation As for HD resolution panels, their price correction will happen when Gen-85 fabs of the Chinese panel makers start mass producing smartphone panels
There are five LTPS LCD panel fabs that were supposed to go into operation throughout 2016, but they have all postponed their mass production of to either the end of 2016 or the start of 2017 Thus, the supply of FHD resolution panels for mid-range and high-end devices will expand at the turn of the year In addition, the Gen-85 fabs of Chinese panel makers have scheduled to roll out HD resolution panels for smartphones towards the year’s end This will also have an impact on the smartphone panel supply in 2017
On the demand side, the market for traditional TFT-LCD panels used in smartphones is facing slowing growth in the end device market and the increasing visibility of smartphones carrying AMOLED displays The penetration rate of AMOLED in the global smartphone market will reach almost 30% in 2017, based on WitsView’s projection As smartphone makers increasingly use the competing technology, the TFT-LCD market will continue to contract
Taking the above factors into consideration, WitsView expects supply to catch up and gradually outpace demand in the LCD smartphone panel market after the first quarter of 2017, creating significant downward pressure on prices
2016/08/30
WitsView, a division of TrendForce, anticipates growing oversupply of LTPS LCD panels Worldwide LTPS panel capacity expansion for this year is slower than initially expected as several new fabs have delayed mass production until after this year’s fourth quarter However, this delay will also lead to an annual increase of 316% for next year’s total LTPS panel capacity The oversupply situation will also get worse with the gradual adoption of AMOLED panels among mid-range and high-end smartphones
“The rapidly rising demand for AMOLED panels has become a serious challenge to the dominance of LTPS LCD in the high-end smartphone display market,” said Boyce Fan, senior research manager of WitsView “As investments in LTPS panel production have peaked, some panel makers are even changing their plans for the next few years, from achieving their targets for LTPS panel capacity to advancing straight to AMOLED panel production Hence, the expansion momentum of LTPS panel capacity will slow down in 2018”
Fan added that panel makers specializing in high-end LTPS panels such as Japan Display (JDI), Sharp and LG Display (LGD) now feel threatened by Samsung Display (SDC), the leading supplier of small-size AMOLED panels “SDC is aggressively courting Chinese smartphone brands and raising the market visibility of AMOLED,” said Fan “Furthermore, Apple plans to use the technology starting next year For the LTPS panel market, the emerging oversupply problem will be made worse with new fabs entering mass production after the fourth quarter The market situation will become even more distressing when Apple replaces LTPS panels on its devices with AMOLED panels”
FHD resolution panels may face another price war; prices of mid-range and low-end smartphone panels are also expected to drop
Prices of FHD resolution panels were on a downtrend during the first half of 2016 as the smartphone panel market had anticipated a massive increase in the LTPS panel capacity “Currently, prices have stabilized for FHD resolution panels,” Fan pointed out “The market has reached a temporary equilibrium as new fabs have delayed mass production of LTPS panels and new smartphone releases in the year’s second half are driving demand”
“Newly added LTPS panel capacity will begin supplying the market after this year’s fourth quarter,” said Fan “Therefore, the oversupply pressure will again increase and WitsView expects a new round of price slashing for FHD resolution panels in 2017”
Additionally, prices of mid-range and low-end smartphone panels have kept rising through this year For 5-inch HD Cell panels, their quotes have already exceeded US$3 in this year’s third quarter, and their price gap with FHD resolution panels sized 55 inches is gradually contracting The price increase for HD resolution panels will taper when smartphone brands finished their stock-up activities
Once the new panel fabs begin mass producing LTPS panels, WitsView expects the oversupply pressure to again push down prices of FHD products in the smartphone display market The same pressure may also adversely affect prices of panels for HD smartphone displays On the whole, the smartphone panel market has enjoyed booming demand this year, but price corrections will come in 2017
2016/07/18
Demand for AMOLED panels has taken off as there are strong indications that Apple will introduce AMOLED display to the iPhone series in 2017 The latest research from WitsView, a division of TrendForce, anticipates that the AMOLED penetration rate in the global smartphone market will surpass 20% by the end of this year and reach 40% in 2019
South Korean panel giant Samsung Display (SDC) has spent a considerable amount of time and resources in developing AMOLED products for the small- and mid-size display markets In the past, the demand for SDC’s AMOLED panels was mainly from Samsung Electronics for its branded mobile devices However, Apple’s plan to use AMOLED panels for next year’s iPhone release has triggered a fresh wave of demand in the smartphone market as competitors are also going to follow suit
“In addition to its high-end Galaxy S and Galaxy Note series, Samsung Electronics this year has expanded its AMOLED adoption to include some mid-range smartphone models,” said Boyce Fan, senior research manager at WitsView “Products carrying AMOLED panels are projected to account for 70% of Samsung’s smartphone shipments this year SDC is also seeing a rise in the sales of AMOLED panels to other smartphone vendors, including Chinese brands Over 50% of the respective smartphone shipments from OPPO and Vivo this year will be models with AMOLED screens”
“The market visibility of smartphones with AMOLED panels will rise again in 2017 when Apple is expected to formally deploy this technology for the iPhone,” Fan added “AMOLED’s arrival will radically change the competitive landscape of the high-end smartphone market by challenging the dominance of LTPS LCD, which has been the main display technology for premium models in recent years This will further lead to a new round of fierce price competition in the mid- and high-end smartphone panel markets”
Currently, South Korean panel makers have a tight relationship with AMOLED equipment providers and control most of the capacity for the crucial evaporation process As the leading manufacturer of small-size AMOLED panels, SDC is set to benefit greatly from the booming market On the other hand, LG Display (LGD) and Japan Display (JDI) will try to catch up with SDC by accelerating their timetables for the development and mass production of AMOLED panels LGD and JDI’s efforts will eventually allow Apple to spread its orders out among multiple suppliers Chinese panel makers have recently ramped up their investments in AMOLED manufacturing as well Looking ahead, WitsView anticipates LGD and JDI to become Apple’s AMOLED panel suppliers in 2018 at the earliest
2016/05/16
With Apple almost certain to use AMOLED for the future models of iPhone series, both panel makers and rival smartphone brands worldwide have also entered the race to invest in small- and mid-size AMOLED panels The global production capacity of small- and mid-size AMOLED panels by area is projected to grow 165% annually to 59 million square meters in 2016, according to the latest data from WitsView, a division of TrendForce The total capacity of small- and mid-size AMOLED panels will continue to expand to 144 million square meters in 2019, increasing at CAGR of 30% from 2015 through 2019
SDC’s dominance in AMOLED panels for mobile devices will not be challenged in the short term due to technological barriers
“The panel maker that will certainly gain the most from this wave of AMOLED demand is Samsung Display (SDC), which has invested in this display technology for longer than its competitors,” said Boyce Fan, WitsView senior research manager “The share of Samsung branded smartphones equipped with AMOLED panels has steadily grow each year Also, China-based smartphone brands have significantly increased their adoption of the technology”
Demand from Samsung and outside customers have helped raised the average capacity utilization rate for SDC’s AMOLED panel fabrication processes, from 75~80% in 2015 to about 90% and above this year WitsView expects SDC to maintain high capacity utilization for it AMOLED processes up to the end of 2016 Furthermore, SDC is planning to expand its AMOLED capacity to meet with the anticipated huge demand from Apple
The other major South Korean panel maker, LG Display (LGD), is following SDC’s footsteps and accelerating its schedule for increasing AMOLED capacity The two large South Korean suppliers will account for 93% of the global capacity for small- and mid-size AMOLED panels this year, based on WitsView’s analysis However, other panel makers will be able to mass produce AMOLED products later if they have succeeded in catching up to the South Korean suppliers in equipment investments and technological capabilities Thus, SDC and LGD’s global share of small- and mid-size AMOLED panel capacity is estimated to contract to 71% by 2019, while the Chinese will expand their global share to 19% (assuming that they have achieved mass production) Also, the target application of this technology has gradually shifted to flexible display products WitsView hence forecasts that flexible displays will take up 61% of the small- and mid-size AMOLED panel capacity worldwide
“For many panel makers, the mass production of AMOLED products is being blocked by several major hurdles,” said Fan “In the upstream, just a few companies control the source of manufacturing equipment such as the vapor deposition systems for mid- and small-size AMOLED panels Besides, AMOLED is a very challenging technology, so new entrants to this market are likely to encounter a lot of problems when trying to maintain stable and high panel yields during the initial stages In the short term, SDC will have absolute dominance in the small- and mid-size segments without rivals”
2016/04/19
The display technology industry has seen a significant expansion in the production of LCD panels with IGZO (indium gallium zinc oxide) thin-film transistor (TFT) backplane WitsView, a division of TrendForce, estimates that the global production capacity of IGZO panels by area will reach about 69 million square meters this year, up 45% from 2015 A Gen-85 fab owned by major Chinese panel supplier CEC-Panda is currently responsible for much of this capacity expansion
Apple is the first electronics device maker to adopt IGZO, using this type of panel for iPads in 2011 and 2012 While Apple has helped generated a wave of interests for this technology in the display market, the growth of IGZO products have been constrained by a host of issues Getting related patents have been difficult, and there are still technological and yield-rate barriers to overcome The spiraling price competition in different application markets are also compressing the overall market share of IGZO panels
“Not only are IGZO products unable to establish a larger presence in the mid- and large-size panel markets, they are also having difficulty competing with the more mature LTPS technology in the small-size segment,” said Boyce Fan, senior research manager at WitsView “Right now, Apple is the only major source of demand”
Foxconn’s acquisition of Sharp has again put IGZO under the spotlight Foxconn is currently considering increasing its investments in the technology and expanding its scale of adoption Fan pointed out that the future success of IGZO panels in the display market will still hinge on Apple There will be a rising, constant demand in the IGZO market if the US electronics giant uses the technology for other product lines in addition to iPads Suppliers in turn will be able to allocate their capacities for IGZO panels with some certainty and expand their production later on
AMOLED has been getting increasing attention from panel suppliers competing in the smartphone display market LTPS is now the dominant backplane technology for smartphone AMOLED panels However, IGZO has lower current leakage rate than LTPS and thus consumes less power With this advantage, IGZO has an opportunity to challenge LTPS in the potential AMOLED smartphone panel market
Dominant suppliers in Apple’s IGZO display chain have gradually emerged with Sharp controlling 33% of the global capacity this year
Sharp has long been the main supplier of IGZO panels to Apple and already reached a high level of maturity in terms of manufacturing WitsView estimates that Sharp will account for 33% of the global IGZO panel capacity area this year LG Display (LGD) and Samsung Display (SDC) are also increasing their IGZO panel production in response to the iPad demand and possibility of Apple using the technology in other product lines Together, the South Korean panel makers will constitute 28% of the global IGZO capacity this year In sum, Sharp, LGD and SDC are expected to become the dominant IGZO panel suppliers in Apple’s supply chain
Taiwan-based panel makers are more conservative in their investments of IGZO panel manufacturing as they lack orders from Apple China’s CEC-Panda, on the other hand, has made huge investments in the technology because it has received the know-how and support from Sharp The Chinese supplier’s Gen 85 fab in particular has added a considerable amount of capacity for IGZO panels of all sizes According to WitsView, CEC-Panda’s share of the global IGZO panel capacity will come to 39%, making the company the largest IGZO panel supplier outside of Apple’s supply chain
