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keyword:Ben Yeh11 result(s)

Press Releases
NAND Flash Contract Price Decline Shrinks in 3Q, with Wafer Prices to Grow Against the Trend, Says TrendForce

2019/08/05

Semiconductors

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, has just released contract prices for various products in July, in which we see contract prices still tr​​​​​​ending down overall, but those for mainstream products shrinking due to the Toshiba outage directly impacting production Furthermore, Japan's modifications to South Korean- bound export regulations were also anticipated by the market to impact South Korea's NAND flash supply TrendForce suggests that Japan's move was merely the removal of South Korea from its white list, in which countries to receive favorable treatment were listed and with South Korea as the only Asian country listed in the past South Korea will merely turn from a country receiving special treatment into a normal one, and South Korean semiconductor suppliers will have to go through the same proceedings as other Asian countries do And since the Japanese government has already assigned additional personnel to speed up reviewing, this move probably won't be causing much of an impact An observation of quote trends one by one yields that wafer prices in channel markets will be impacted the most severely and show the most drastic bounce The ASP for these products has already gone through a long period of decline since November 2017 until now and has neared cash costs Western Digital, who carries a good deal of influence in the wafer market, was also directly impacted by the Toshiba outage In light of these two factors, suppliers have all raised wafer prices in July, at the end of which it has already grown by over 15% The effects of the outage may persist into August looking forward, and may continue to bring prices up, but the extent of that growth won't be as drastic as when it first bounced in July eMMC/UFS and Client SSD Contract Prices Continued Falling in 3Q, but May Stabilize in 4Q TrendForce points out that looking at eMMC/UFS for consumer products and smartphone clients, contract prices for major customers were mostly agreed upon in June, and though demand in 3Q was propped up somewhat by the peak-season, it remained weak due to international uncertainties, causing contract prices to exhibit a decline of around 5% TrendForce's outlook for 4Q gives that prices for some low-capacity products may be adjusted slightly upwards while the rest trend flat Client SSDs were likewise affected by contract prices formerly agreed upon Adding that market inventories remained high, 3Q still saw a near-10% decline However, suppliers' inventories are forecast to fall to more healthier levels in 4Q, which will help stabilized prices and stop them from falling For enterprise SSDs, since Toshiba and Western Digital don't take up much of a share in this market, we don't see much of an effect on the supply side And since demand performance was likewise affected by the US-China trade dispute, pull-ins weren't as optimistic as originally expected by the market, and contract prices for enterprise products fell by at least 15% in 3Q The effects of the Toshiba outage will begin to manifest in 4Q, giving narrowing price declines as suppliers' inventory levels return to within more moderate ranges But due to the fierce price competition in servers, contract prices for enterprise SSDs are projected to fall slightly TrendForce suggests that, judging from the overall composition of product portfolios, although wafers rose the most in price, it took up a rather low proportion of the market In comparison, SSD and eMMC/UFSs took up nearly 80% of the NAND flash market and exhibited declines of 5~15%, causing prices for the overall NAND flash market to remain on a downtrend in 3Q

Press Releases
Drops in 2Q NAND Flash Contract Prices Shrink Slightly Thanks to Demand Recovery and Production Capacity Adjustments, Says TrendForce

2019/03/20

Semiconductors

DRAMeXchange  , a division of  TrendForce  , points out that 1Q19 contract prices across all NAND Flash product categories were impacted by a weak server demand, an extended smartphone replacement cycle, less-than-expected sales for Apple's new phones and other end demand disappointments Combined with the quarter fall, this quarter presents a drop of 20%, the most dramatic drop since NAND Flash supply surpassed demand back in early 2018 DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh points out that, after going through the demand slump of the first season, smartphones, laptops, servers and other main products in demand will all see improvements in the second season looking forward On the other hand, NAND Flash suppliers scramble to suppress capital expenditure and reduce the production ratio of new production processes, even directly reducing production itself Although it won' t cause an immediate reversal of the oversupply situation, it will have a positive effect on the market environment In summary, 2Q contract prices for eMMC/UFS, SSD, wafers and other products will still continue to slide, but to a lesser extent compared to 1Q, landing between 10~15% Concerning channel markets in 2Q, 256Gb TLC wafers have fallen a long way since November 2017, coming to a large price drop exceeding 70% with price-per-GB plunging below 008 USD, the largest drop among all product categories As prices gradually near the budget line with nowhere else to go, compounded with the increase in supplier yield rates and reduction of lower grade parts, end products such as memory cards and USBs may experience an upward adjustment or two in prices Therefore, through stimulation by the upward price adjustments, module suppliers will increase in re-stocking momentum, while the slide in contract prices will gradually lessen in severity Contract prices are predicted to exhibit diminishing drops in 2Q Ben Yeh points out that apart from channel markets, suppliers will also turn to high capacity UFS and SSD products, hoping not only to stimulate demand but also compete for market shares by lowering prices; mobile device suppliers including Western Digital and Samsung will be offering high capacity UFS 30 products to attract customers, hoping to stimulate demand in 2H this year through performance increases and attractive prices Suppliers will also be completing uMCP product lines, pushing mid- and high-end devices toward 256GB, as well as gradually pushing 32GB devices toward 64GB For Client SSDs, suppliers will be increasing the falling pressure of 512GB/1TB product prices to stimulate content-per-box growth This, along with the gradually increasing proportion of good value PCIe SSDs (Gen 30×2) in product shipments, will drive a larger drop in ASP, accelerating the rate at which SSDs are introduced into laptops As for enterprise SSDs, demand for server/data centers is the only major demand on the rise in 2019 With a higher gross profit than other products, enterprise SSDs have become the holy grail companies vie for Suppliers have all set their sights on PCIe products, which have plenty of room for growth and even more opportunities for competition Contract prices shall continue to fall in the aftermath

Press Releases
NAND Flash Giants Suffer Revenue Loss of 16.8% in 4Q18, Dragged Down by Falling Prices, Says TrendForce

2019/02/21

Semiconductors

DRAMeXchange, a division of the global market research firm  TrendForce, reports that the rising economic uncertainties caused some server manufacturers to delay restocking or cancel orders, and compelled those upstream in the supply chain to make adjustments to their production lines, damaging their ability to stock up Furthermore, Apple sales did not meet expectations in the new quarter, and the need to switch phones experienced a decline; laptop demands were impacted by the Intel CPU shortage Bit-shipments did not perform as well as expected, despite the continual increase in average memory storage All this led to a drop in revenue by 168% QoQ for brand owners in 4Q18 Looking back at the sales performance for the whole 2018 year, annual bit-shipments rose by more than 40% compared to 2017, despite the quarterly decline in prices across all product categories Total revenue still continued to grow, and reached a record high of US$632 billion, a growth of 109% from 2017 Seasonal headwinds will worsen the demand slump in 1Q19, so smartphone and server manufacturers will continue to make adjustments to their inventories Hence, the total NAND Flash bit shipments for the period are projected to register a QoQ decline Also, major NAND Flash suppliers will be lowering their prices to retain their market shares Total NAND Flash revenue will be dragged down by both falling unit prices and falling demand, and continue its decline Samsung Samsung's bit shipments for 4Q18 shrank by more than 7% QoQ as a result of weakening demand in the smartphone, server, and notebook PC markets Samsung's ASP also fell sharply by more than 20% QoQ, as it had to make downward corrections on prices in order to reach its sales targets Samsung's revenue for 4Q18 came to US$4304 billion, showing a decline of 289% QoQ In face of the ongoing market oversupply, Samsung intends to maintain its production capacity for 3D NAND Flash at the current level through 2019 Samsung will also scale back its production capacity for 2D NAND Flash in accordance with the falling demand for the older architecture On the other hand, Samsung is sticking with its plan to erect a second fab building at the site of its Pyeongtaek plant From the technology angle, Samsung has reached maturity with the development of the fifth-generation process However, the company will hold back on expanding the production capacity of the advanced technology as it wants to avoid an excessive growth in its output SK Hynix SK Hynix’s bit shipments for 4Q18 increased by just 10% QoQ The lack of bit shipment growth was attributed to disappointing developments in the smartphone market, such as OEMs focusing on inventory closeouts and sales of flagship smartphones falling short of expectations SK Hynix’s ASP was also affected by increasingly conservative procurements of server SSDs and other demand factors, and fell significantly by 21% QoQ in 4Q18 Their quarterly NAND Flash revenue dropped by 134% QoQ to US$1587 billion The latest analysis of SK Hynix’s capacity and technology plans finds that the company is maintaining its schedule for ramping up production at the newly built M15 To lower cost and improve competitiveness, SK Hynix has begun applying the 96L 3D NAND architecture to its product lines, among which 96L UFS 21 products are planned to be mass produced in 2Q19 However, a period of time is needed to introduce this type of product to the market during the initial stage Therefore, SK Hynix’s shipments will still consist mainly of 72L products in 2019 Toshiba Toshiba’s bit-shipments in 4Q18 barely held steady from the previous quarter, as its sales performance was affected by the weaker-than-expected sales of the latest iPhone models and the shortage of Intel CPUs that has been disrupting shipments of notebook PCs Its ASP also fell by 15% QoQ due to the significant fall in contract prices for various products, and its fourth-quarter revenue came to US$2731 billion, showing a drop of 147% QoQ At the request of Western Digital, Toshiba has scaled back the total production capacity of production lines at Yokkaichi, leading to a drop in overall production capacity in the area They will focus their capacity expansion efforts on Fab 6 in 2019, but 64L will nevertheless remain to be their main production process Western Digital Server and mobile phone demands failed to meet expectations, due to influences from the US-China trade dispute Despite the strong growth in the average density of products shipped to the SSD market, Western Digital increased its bit shipments by just 5% from the previous quarter Its ASP also fell by 18% QoQ because of the exacerbating effects of the slump in demand and the sharp price downswing for various products The company’s total NAND Flash revenue for 4Q18 fell by 142% QoQ to US$2173 billion Western Digital will maintain its strategy of conserving production capacity and capital expenditure The company’s total annual output for 2019 is projected to be 10-15% lower than originally planned Western Digital is currently negotiating with Toshiba over the joint investment on the latter’s plant in Iwate Prefecture This negotiation will become the key to ensuring Western Digital’s future competitiveness Micron Micron was able to sustain a bit growth of more than 10% QoQ thanks to strong sales of SATA Enterprise SSD and growths in shipments of UFS and uMCP products However, Micron’s ASP was affected by the general decline in prices of NAND Flash products and fell by more than 10% QoQ On the whole, Micron’s NAND Flash revenue for 4Q18 dipped by 22% QoQ to US$2179 billion For 2019, the bit output growth from Micron will come mostly from technology migration The company will also widen the adoption of the 96L architecture so that the technology will be present in more of its offerings for various storage applications All these will help the company maintain an output growth near the average level of the industry Intel In addition to being the market leader in server SSDs, Intel also benefitted from clients who switched to higher capacity configurations and 64L products in the fourth quarter, keeping the growth of their bit-shipments above 15% Their ASP, however, dropped by 10~20% because of the sharp downswing in contract prices of server SSDs in 4Q18, and their overall revenue increased just slightly by 24% QoQ to US$1107 billion Intel's production and technology goals for this year include ramping up the second-phase facility of the Dalian operation to its full capacity On the other hand, they will continue their transition into 96L products, whose output share is forecasted to reach near 30% in 2H19

Press Releases
Total NAND Flash Revenue Rose by Just 4.4% QoQ in 3Q18 Due to Below-Expected Demand Growth, Says TrendForce

2018/11/19

Semiconductors / Consumer Electronics

DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry increased steadily in 3Q18, as suppliers raised the yields of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production NAND Flash demand, however, had yet to catch up with supply despite the year-end busy season The shortage of Intel CPUs and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices have respectively stifled the demand growths related to notebook PCs and smartphones Also, the US-China trade dispute has been a negative influence on the whole market Because the NAND Flash market had been in oversupply since the start of 2018, contract prices of NAND Flash products in 3Q18 registered significant declines from the previous quarter, and the average price drop was 10-15% “The market for NAND Flash is expected to remain in oversupply during 4Q18, with steeper price decline for various NAND Flash products,” says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh Memory module makers and OEMs are now at the end of their preparation for the year-end holiday season in North America and Europe, so they are reluctant to extend their inventories now In addition, the US-China trade dispute simmers, leading to weaker demand Particularly, price competition is intensifying in the markets for Enterprise SSDs and NAND Flash wafers NAND Flash suppliers are concentrating on Enterprise SSD market to retain gross margins and on wafer market for greater digestion of inventories Samsung Samsung’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 rose by 21% QoQ to US$605 billion Although demand was lower than anticipated for the busy season, Samsung maintained a QoQ growth of more than 20% in bit shipments because it has remained the dominant supplier of NAND Flash for flagship smartphones and recorded increasing shipments of its SSDs for PCs and servers Nevertheless, falling prices across the market also resulted in a near 15% QoQ decline in Samsung’s ASP Samsung’s consumer-grade SSDs (for the channel market) are presently using 3D NAND Flash made with the fifth-generation manufacturing process The process will be progressively applied to the production of Client SSDs for PC-OEMs and UFS mobile solutions Because the oversupply problem has grown to become more significant since the start of 2018, Samsung will slow down the pace of the process migration during 2019 This also means that the mainstream architecture in the NAND Flash market during 2019 will still be 64/72-layer 3D NAND SK Hynix SK Hynix’s NAND Flash revenue for 3Q18 advanced by 60% QoQ to US$183 billion SK Hynix gained from the seasonal growth in smartphone shipments and the steady growth of its SSD sales As a result, its bit shipments for the quarter also grew by 19% QoQ Still, SK Hynix posted a 10% QoQ decline in its ASP because the demand growth was smaller than anticipated and not enough to offset the effect of oversupply SK Hynix continues to concentrate on product sales in the mobile storage market Its shipments of mobile solutions that are 128GB or higher have expanded noticeably following the releases of smartphones with higher-end specifications (eg the new iPhone devices and Chinese branded smartphones featuring an all-screen front) The success in the mobile storage market has also sustained the growth of the supplier’s bit shipments In the SSD market, SK Hynix has been focusing on the sales of products based on 72-layer 3D NAND Flash Consequently, SSDs accounted for more than 20% of SK Hynix’s total bit shipments in 3Q18 Toshiba The demand growth resulting from the traditional busy season and the release of the new iPhone devices enabled Toshiba’s bit shipments to increase by more than 20% QoQ in 3Q18 However, falling prices in the end market caused Toshiba’s ASP to drop by almost 15% QoQ in the same period Taken together, Toshiba posted a small increase of 19% QoQ in its quarterly revenue, totaling US$32 billion The recent survey of Toshiba’s capacity and technology plans shows that the share of 64-layer 3D NAND production in the supplier’s total output has already surpassed 70%, and more than 50% of the supplier’s total production capacity is devoted to 3D NAND Flash Additional production capacity for Toshiba during 2019 will come from the expansion of its Fab 6 Considering the market oversupply and the maturity of the supplier’s technology, Fab 6 will primarily manufacture products based on 64-layer 3D NAND Western Digital Western Digital increased its bit shipments by 28% QoQ in 3Q18 This impressive shipment growth was attributed to the supplier’s advantages in the retail and channel market as well as the strong sales of its economically priced SSDs In the same quarter, Western Digital also began to ship its high-density UFS products On the other hand, the supplier’s ASP fell by 16% QoQ because of the general price slump for NAND Flash products Western Digital’s 3Q18 revenue came to US$2534 billion, amounting to an increase of 70% QoQ In response to the oversupply problem during 2018, Western Digital will be limiting its CAPEX for 2019 and will scale back its future capacity expansion efforts Hence, Western Digital is expected to slow down slightly with respect to the capacity expansion and the development of 96-layer 3D NAND Flash in 1H19 Micron Micron’s bit shipments in 3Q18 surged by more than 25% QoQ owing to the busy season in the smartphone market and the increase in the sales of its SSDs Nevertheless, Micron still exerts great influence over the channel market And because of the steep price drops in the channel market, Micron’s ASP fell by nearly 15% QoQ in 3Q18 All things considered, the supplier’s revenue for the same quarter rose by 147% QoQ to US$223 billion To improve its cost structure, Micron has been decreasing the shipment share of products for the channel market The company’s primary aim in the SSD market is to release products featuring both the NVMe interface and QLC NAND Flash in order to meet the demand for high-density storage In the mobile storage market, Micron is continuing its collaboration with Chinese suppliers and searching for more opportunities in that country Micron also began making product shipments in China during 3Q18 Intel In 3Q18, Intel’s bit shipments kept growing at a QoQ rate of more than 10% due to its long-term dominance in the Enterprise SSD market Despite prices spiraling downward in the NAND Flash market, Intel was able to keep the decline of its ASP just slightly larger than 9% QoQ Its revenue performance remained relatively constant from the previous quarter, totaling US$108 billion On the other hand, Intel reached its peak profit for this year in the third quarter thanks to the cost reduction associated with the increased use of 64-layer 3D NAND Flash in its SSDs (over 50% of its total SSD shipments in 3Q18) The additional production capacity made available by the second-phase expansion of Intel’s Dalian fab came online in 3Q18, and will achieve full capacity in 1H19 In addition, Intel and Micron have terminated their cooperation in the field of non-volatile memory Although Micron will be acquiring the remaining interest in IM Flash Technologies, Intel can still use the Lehi plant for the production of 3D XPoint until the end of 2020 After that, however, Intel is on its own in the development of the third-generation of 3D XPoint products, so Intel will likely set up in-house production for this type of memory in the future

Press Releases
October Contract Prices for NAND Flash Chips/Wafers Witnessed Continued Price Drop due to Weak Demand Outlook for End Markets, Says TrendForce

2018/11/06

Semiconductors / Consumer Electronics

The NAND Flash market has remained in oversupply for the whole year of 2018, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, with sufficient inventories for notebook/smartphone OEMs The China-US trade war and the shortage of Intel CPU have made situations worse on the supply side In October, the contract prices of SSD, and eMMC/UFS witnessed continued fall, while the price drop of NAND Flash chips and wafers appeared to be larger The market of SLC NAND Flash chips is also affected as the China-US trade war simmers “The market originally expected ZTE’s resumption of US business to boost demands from China’s netcom devices biddings in Q3, but the results turned out to be lower than expected”, says DRAMeXchange analyst Ben Yeh, “and the sufficient inventories of netcom ODMs would influence the stock-up demand in the coming quarters” As the result, the market has seen an oversupply for SLC NAND Flash in Q4, driving down Q4 contract prices by 10-15% Contract prices of the TLC NAND Flash wafers dropped by 13-17% in October, the highest monthly decline As for NAND Flash Wafer, the prices normally experience noticeable falls at quarter end when companies announce their financial results However, as the companies expect their annual inventory checking, the stock-up demand is expected to grow weak for the period after this November Due to the relatively negative demand outlook for NAND Flash applications in 1H19, which prompted some suppliers to resort to price cuts, the contract prices of the TLC NAND Flash wafers dropped by 13-17% monthly in October, the largest price fall for a single month since November 2017 Despite the coming year-end holiday sales, the impact of current price falls on the restocking demands of the module firms will not be significant in the short term Therefore, DRAMeXchange expects a high possibility of further price declines in November and December Amid the recent overall price declines in the NAND Flash market, the drop in 3D TLC prices is sharper than the drop in 2D MLC prices, so more clients are switching to solutions based on the former architecture With the demand shift, the price decline in 2D MLC prices has also extended to 4-10%

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