TrendForce predicts a dramatic surge in AI server shipments for 2023, with an estimated 12 million units—outfitted with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs—destined for markets around the world, marking a robust YoY growth of 384% This increase resonates with the mounting demand for AI servers and chips, resulting in AI servers poised to constitute nearly 9% of the total server shipments, a figure projected to increase to 15% by 2026 TrendForce has revised its CAGR forecast for AI server shipments between 2022 and 2026 upwards to an ambitious 22% Furthermore, AI chip shipments in 2023 are slated to increase by an impressive 46%
TrendForce analysis indicates that NVIDIA’s GPUs currently dominate the AI server market, commanding an impressive 60–70% market share Hot on its heels are ASIC chips, independently developed by CSPs, seizing over 20% of the market Three crucial factors fuel NVIDIA’s market dominance: First, NVIDIA’s A100 and A800 models are sought after by both American and Chinese CSPs Interestingly, the demand curve for 2H23 is predicted to gradually tilt towards the newer H100 and H800 models These models carry an ASP that’s 2–25 times that of the A100 and A800, amplifying their allure Furthermore, NVIDIA isn’t resting on its laurels; it’s proactively bolstering the appeal of these models through aggressive promotion of its self-developed machine solutions, such as DGX and HGX
Second, the profitability of high-end GPUs, specifically the A100 and H100 models, plays a vital role TrendForce research suggests that NVIDIA’s supreme positioning in the GPU market allows for a significant price variation of the H100, which could amount to a stark difference of nearly US$5,000, depending on the buyer’s purchase volume
Lastly, the pervasive influence of ChatBOTs and AI computations is predicted to persist, expanding its footprint across various professional fields such as cloud and e-commerce services, intelligent manufacturing, financial insurance, smart healthcare, and advanced driver-assistance systems as we move into the latter half of the year Simultaneously, there’s been a noticeable upswing in demand for AI servers—particularly cloud-based ones equipped with 4–8 GPUs and edge AI servers boasting 2–4 GPUs TrendForce forecasts an annual growth rate surprising 50% in the shipment of AI servers armed with NVIDIA’s flagship A100 and H100 models
TrendForce reports that HBM, a high-speed RAM interface deployed in advanced GPUs, is poised for a significant uptick in demand The forthcoming H100 GPU from NVIDIA, slated for release this year, is equipped with the faster HBM3 technology This improvement over the previous HBM2e standard amplifies the computation performance of AI server systems As the need for cutting-edge GPUs—including NVIDIA’s A100 and H100, AMD’s MI200 and MI300, and Google’s proprietary TPU—continues to escalate, TrendForce forecasts a striking 58% YoY increase in HBM demand for 2023, with an estimated further boost of 30% expected in 2024
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
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TrendForce reports a dramatic 212% QoQ decline in Q1 revenues for the DRAM industry, bringing total revenue down to US$9663 billion This significant dip represents the third consecutive quarter where revenues have fallen A closer look reveals that increased shipment volumes were exclusive to Micron, with other suppliers noting a decrease The ASP fell for all three major suppliers An enduring oversupply issue, which has led to an ongoing slump in prices, is the chief culprit behind the decline Nevertheless, the industry expects a gradual slowing in the rate of price decline following planned production cuts TrendForce’s Q2 forecast suggests a rise in shipments, but the ongoing price fall might limit potential revenue growth
Each of the three major suppliers—Samsung, Micron, and SK hynix—reported a drop in quarterly revenue Samsung saw a decline in both shipment volumes and ASP due to fewer orders for its newly launched devices, resulting in a QoQ decrease in revenue of 247%, amounting to about US$417 billion Benefiting from its earlier financial reporting and the tail-end orders of the previous year, Micron climbed to the second position in 1Q23 Despite being the only supplier among the big three to record positive shipment growth, Micron couldn't avoid a minor 38% revenue decline, taking its total down to US$272 billion SK hynix faced the steepest decline, with more than a 15% drop in both shipment volume and ASP, leading to a drastic 317% plunge in revenue, amounting to approximately USD$231 billion
TrendForce's earlier prediction of the big three shifting from profitability to loss in 1Q23 due to a swift ASP decline came true With DRAM prices continuing to fall, it's anticipated that Q2 operating profit margins will remain in the red In response to this, all three major suppliers have started implementing production cuts, with Q2 capacity utilization rates expected to fall to 77% for Samsung, 74% for Micron, and 82% for SK hynix
In terms of Taiwanese suppliers, Nanya faced a decline in shipments for the fourth consecutive quarter, with Q1 revenues dropping by 167% Mainstream process nodes remained stagnant at 20 nm, lagging behind the big three, leading to a substantial decline in operating profit margins to -449% However, there is a glimmer of hope as the replenishment demand for TV SoC inventory is anticipated to lift the Q2 utilization rate back up to 80% from 70% Despite receiving several emergency orders for laptops and TVs in Q1, Winbond reported an 88% decline in revenues as prices continued to fall Amidst falling prices and sluggish demand, PSMC experienced a 123% dip in its quarterly DRAM revenue The company's financial performance is primarily tied to its own consumer DRAM products, excluding the revenue from its DRAM foundry services However, if the foundry service revenue were to be included, the company's quarterly decline would steepen to 226%
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
According to TrendForce "AMOLED Technology and Shipment Tracker" that the continuing global economic downturn continues to exert pressure on the smartphone, with this year’s projected market size falling short of 12 billion units Concurrently, advancements in both software and hardware of new devices have plateaued, shifting the market focus toward foldable smartphones TrendForce estimates that shipments of foldable smartphones will reach 198 million units in 2023, marking an impressive YoY growth rate of 55% compared to 128 million units last year
Relatively high prices have been a significant barrier to the wider adoption of foldable smartphones However, devices with exorbitant price tags akin to the Huawei X2 (USD 2,000+) launched in 2021 are no longer commonplace as brands and module makers continuously develop new technologies to optimize costs For instance, OLED organic materials currently account for approximately 23% of the cost of foldable smartphone OLED panels As more suppliers enter this competitive landscape, prices are forecasted to fall Similarly, the price of hinges—another critical component—used to range between CNY 800–1200, but is now adjusting downwards, alleviating the overall cost pressure of foldable smartphones and boosting consumer acceptance
Samsung, the earliest entrant into the foldable smartphone market, maintains its lead over other brands in research and production technologies It’s rumored that its next-generation Fold/Flip 5 will be unveiled in late July and hit the market in August The new design is expected to feature a significantly larger cover display, setting it apart from the previous generation Samsung currently commands around 70% of the overall foldable smartphone market, shipping approximately 13 million units
Chinese brands like Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Honor have all joined the race for foldable smartphones Huawei’s Pocket S, released in 2022, has seen a warm reception in the consumer market, thanks to its appealing design and competitive pricing, despite being equipped with a 4G processor Last year, Huawei’s market share stood at around 10% and is expected to approach 20% this year Other Chinese brands hold around 3–5% market share in the foldable smartphone sector If they can extend their foldable devices into global channels, their sales volumes are expected to rise even further
At present, the market is focused on the recently released Google Pixel Fold, which features a 76-inch 2208x1840 resolution OLED panel and a 58-inch 2092x1080 resolution OLED panel for the cover display Transsion, a company with a longstanding presence in the African market, introduced its first foldable smartphone, the Phantom V Fold, earlier this year With an increasing number of brands expected to venture into foldable smartphone production, TrendForce estimates the market penetration of foldable phones to be around 17% in 2023 With continuous improvements in cost and design, this figure is expected to surpass 5% by 2027
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at graceli@trendforcecom
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TrendForce reports that the global pandemic and extended average device replacement cycles of 36 to 42 months have curtailed smartphone production growth Consequently, production levels have yet to rebound to pre-pandemic levels Despite these challenges, the market for refurbished phones has been expanding, representing about 11% of the total market share in 2022 with approximately 167 million devices The largest market for these pre-owned devices remains China, with Europe following behind in second place Interestingly, India’s burgeoning market, bolstered by its vast population, is developing rapidly and is projected to potentially rival China’s sales of refurbished phones by 2026 As far as brand performance goes, Apple dominated the market in 2022, capturing 45~50% of sales, while Samsung claimed the runner-up position with a 25~30% market share
The recent surge in the second-hand smartphone market can be largely attributed to increasing demand from emerging countries, and to the challenging nature of hardware and software innovation for new smartphone models This difficulty in innovating is leading to a diminished desire among consumers to upgrade their devices Brands and retailers have introduced trade-in promotional models to overcome this bottleneck in new device production These initiatives not only stimulate the sales of new devices, but also ensure that replaced old devices are reused in the mid-tier market, or as transition devices for consumers in emerging countries moving from feature phones to entry-level smartphones Furthermore, the profitability of the second-hand smartphone market has attracted a number of e-commerce platforms in recent years
Notably, a performance surplus when it comes to key smartphone components is seen as another contributing factor to the elongation of the replacement cycle and prosperity of the second-hand market Components, such as application processor (AP) chips are being continually updated, while the data transfer speed of mobile DRAM significantly surpasses that of other applications In response, Android brands have been consistently boosting the memory capacity of their flagship models due to marketing considerations Additionally, smartphone brands are dedicated to concurrently upgrading the software and hardware of their camera lenses Their image quality now rivals that of entry-level cameras, making them a highly-suitable option for everyday use Finally, the swift transition to OLED display panels—coupled with increased frame rates—enhances the attractiveness of these devices
Furthermore, the prolonged oversupply of both panel and memory components has prompted a significant plunge in ASP From the perspective of display panels, this downward trend has benefited the repair industry Meanwhile, a decline in memory prices has notably increased the capacity of DRAM and NAND Flash in new devices Consequently, the replacement cycle has been stretched even further, providing a boost to the used phone market All these contributing factors are fostering a circular economy in the smartphone industry, and facilitating the ongoing expansion of the second-hand phone market
For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
TrendForce forecasts a global downturn in AR and VR device shipments for 2023, predicting a shipment total of roughly 745 million units—an 182% YoY decrease VR devices are expected to shoulder the majority of this decline, with projected shipments hovering around 667 million units This dip is primarily attributed to weaker-than-expected sales of newly released high-end devices Consequently, manufacturers are likely to pivot their sales strategies, shifting their focus to more cost-effective offerings Conversely, shipments of AR devices are expected to remain stable, with projected shipments exceeding 780,000 units While Apple’s latest offerings could stimulate some demand, the high price tags attached to these units continue to pose a significant barrier to broader market growth
Two key factors emerge when examining the impending decline in shipments in the VR sector Firstly, brands may have been overly optimistic regarding the sales of their top-tier products Despite these premium devices offering enhanced features courtesy of advanced hardware and software, consumers are showing reluctance to shoulder the associated higher costs Instead, they seem to be gravitating towards more budget-friendly models this year Secondly, the shortage of appealing, new, cost-effective models in the market is exacerbating the downturn Meta Quest 2 continues to maintain its status as this year’s market-leading VR product as the release of Meta Quest 3 has been pushed back to 2024
In contrast, AR devices experienced a significant surge in shipments during 2020 and 2021, fueled by pandemic-driven demand for remote communication solutions However, as the ramifications of the pandemic start to wane, this growth trajectory is showing signs of slowing down Although Apple is projected to launch a new product in 2023, this release is primarily targeted at developers, signifying an accompanying escalation in specifications, features, and, most importantly, cost This factor, coupled with anticipated production hurdles, is likely to restrict sales predominantly to pre-orders for this year Shipment estimates are projected to fall short of 100,000 units, with total production potentially capped at 300,000 units
TrendForce posits that the trajectory of the VR and AR device market may encounter certain limitations between 2023 and 2025 While affordable VR devices could pique the interest of mainstream consumers, the prospect of minimal profitability might dissuade manufacturers from substantial investment in the VR market in the immediate future A shift towards AR devices and their corresponding applications seems more probable Nevertheless, the expansion of the AR device market hinges on a broader acceptance of consumer applications Therefore, TrendForce anticipates that a significant rise in the VR and AR market, potentially nearing a 40% annual increase in shipments, might not be realized until 2025
For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/
