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Report
Mobile DRAM Revenue Registered Largest QoQ Decline on Record in 3Q22 and Reached New Quarterly Low Since 2016 as Suppliers Saw Plummeting Prices and Shipments

2022/11/23

Semiconductors

PDF

Global market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that smartphone brands on the whole began to actively reduce existing component inventory in 2Q23 and maintained this strategy in 3Q23

Press Releases
Global NAND Flash Revenue Fell by 24.3% QoQ for 3Q23 as Suppliers Made Large Price Concessions That in Turn Impacted Their Results, Says TrendForce

2022/11/23

Semiconductors

Market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that the whole NAND Flash market was severely weakened by plummeting demand in 3Q22 Because shipments of end products including consumer electronics and servers had been below expectations, the overall NAND ASP fell by 183% QoQ Furthermore, the general economic outlook remained pessimistic, so enterprises across many sectors started to scale back their capital expenditure plans and halted the momentum of their procurement activities Due to this development, the problem of excess inventory eventually spread to NAND Flash suppliers The pressure on suppliers to make sales was ratcheted up dramatically According to TrendForce’s investigation, NAND Flash bit shipments fell by 67% QoQ for 3Q22, and the overall NAND Flash ASP also kept sliding On account of the unfavorable market situation, the NAND Flash industry recorded a total revenue of around US$1371 billion for 3Q22 The QoQ revenue decline reached as much as 243% The ranking of NAND Flash suppliers by revenue saw two notable changes for 3Q22 First, SK Group moved down to third place as it suffered the largest revenue drop among suppliers Its revenue slipped by 298% QoQ to US$254 billion mainly due to the significant deterioration of the demand for PCs and smartphones Its subsidiary Solidigm was also affected by the slowdown in server procurements Previously, servers had a fairly stable demand situation compared with other kinds of end products However, server demand eventually buckled in 3Q22 as result of enterprises cutting capital expenditure and undergoing a period of inventory correction Compared with 2Q22, SK Group (that encompasses SK hynix and Solidigm) posted a drop of 111% in bit shipments and an even steeper decline of more than 20% in ASP The other notable change in the 3Q22 ranking was Kioxia The supplier returned to second place in terms of revenue and market share because it was able to make a gradual recovery from the material contamination incident that had happened earlier this year Even though Kioxia did suffer a significant decline in its ASP due to the slumping demand for consumer electronics, its bit shipments were bolstered by the seasonal stock-up activities of its clients in the smartphone industry and rose by 235% QoQ Taken altogether, Kioxia’s revenue dipped by just 01% QoQ to US$283 billion Owing to Downturn in Both Quantity and Price, Micron Posted Largest Drop in NAND Flash Bit Shipments with QoQ Decline Reaching 21% Other NAND Flash suppliers including Samsung, Western Digital and Micron all posted a considerable QoQ decline in revenue for 3Q22 because of a drop in both price and shipment quantity Again, weakening demand for end products was one of the major reasons behind these suppliers’ poor performances Regarding Samsung, the supplier saw a drop in its enterprise SSD shipments during 3Q22 as server demand slowed down This was a sharp negative turn compared with the situation in 2Q22, when orders related to data centers were propping up enterprise SSD procurements Samsung’s revenue fell by 281% QoQ to US$43 billion for 3Q22 Western Digital’s NAND Flash business were under enormous pressure in 3Q22 as it recorded a QoQ decline in bit shipments and a sharp drop in its ASP All in all, Western Digital’s revenue fell by 283% QoQ to US$172 billion Turning to Micron, an analysis of its memory revenue performance, which encompasses both DRAM and NAND Flash, has revealed that the only the application segment that did well in 3Q22 was automotive memory solutions Micron actually posted a new high for its revenue from automotive memory solutions in that quarter Conversely, its revenue figures related to other memory-related applications, including NAND Flash solutions for data centers, industrial IoT, etc, all exhibited a QoQ drop And because of the poor results for the rest of application segments, Micron’s NAND Flash revenue as a whole registered a steep QoQ decline of 262% to US$169 billion NAND Revenue Will Show a QoQ Drop Again for 4Q22 as Inventory Pressure Continues to Mount and Production Cuts Bring No Immediate Relief Moving into 4Q22, TrendForce believes that with the notable exception of Samsung, most suppliers will be more cautious in planning output following their respective earnings calls for the third quarter To restore balance to supply-demand dynamics as quickly as possible, suppliers will be taking measures such as cutting wafer input and decelerating the pace of technology migration However, the usual demand surge in connection with the year-end holiday sales has failed to materialize this year, and NAND Flash buyers’ passiveness is causing inventory to further accumulate on the supply side As for production cuts, their effect on the market will not be apparent for at least a quarter Hence, prices of NAND Flash products will still be under significant downward pressure in 4Q22, and TrendForce has widened the projected QoQ decline in contract prices to 20~25% in its latest forecast With high inventory and falling prices serving as constraining factors, the NAND Flash industry is also forecasted to post a QoQ decline of almost 20% in its total revenue for 4Q22 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Display Research, please click here, or email Ms Vivie Liu from the Sales Department at vivieliu@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Press Releases
Projected YoY Growth Rate of Server Shipments for 2023 Has Been Revised Down to 2.8% as Inventory Adjustments Continue and Companies Curb IT-Related Expenditures

2022/11/22

Semiconductors

Based on the latest data and research, TrendForce has further corrected down the projected YoY growth rate of whole server shipments for 2023 to 28% Three factors are behind this revision First, lead time has started to return to its usual length for most orders related to server components from 3Q23 onward Seeing this, server OEMs and cloud service providers (CSPs) have also begun to correct the component mismatch issue by lowering demand for items that are in excess while maintaining a constant inventory level for items that are still in tight supply This development, in turn, has reduced the flow of server orders going to ODMs Second, the wave of demand that was generated earlier from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic is dissipating Hence, expansion activities have cooled off noticeably for services such as video streaming, e-commerce, etc Among CSPs, Meta, Google, and ByteDance (TikTok) have lowered their server procurement quantities for next year Lastly, the global economic outlook has remained fairly negative, so companies across most industry sectors have formulated a more conservative expenditure plan and scaled back IT-related spending for next year QoQ Declines in Prices of Server DRAM Modules and Enterprise SSDs for 4Q22 Have Widened to 23~28% as Competition Among Suppliers Intensifies In the server DRAM market, DRAM suppliers are facing greater difficulties in raising sales because buyers have been carrying a high level of inventory during the second half of this year In 3Q22, suppliers did manage to get some buyers to lock in the price for that quarter and the next However, TrendForce believes that further downward corrections to next year’s server shipments have ratcheted up the price competition among suppliers Moving into October, CSPs received even lower server DRAM quotes as suppliers proposed to lock in the price to the end of 1H23 Now, in November, another round of negotiations for “fourth-quarter special deals” has also commenced Due to these developments, QoQ declines in contract prices of server DRAM modules for 4Q22 have enlarged to 23~28% Regarding the enterprise SSD market, orders remained relatively stable for a while However, the increasingly conservative economic outlook and the downward revisions to corporate capital expenditure plans in 2H22 have led to softer demand momentum for enterprise SSDs Moreover, NAND Flash suppliers face rising inventory for enterprise SSDs as the demand for consumer electronics has plummeted Internally, they have been under pressure to find solutions for consuming excess production capacity and meeting their year-end targets Externally, they need to prepare for headwinds such the expected weak demand situation during the low season of 1Q23 and delays in the production ramp-up of Intel’s and AMD’s new server CPU platforms Given these factors, suppliers are compelled to offer larger price concessions on enterprise SSDs even though the contracts for this fourth quarter have already been arranged Due to the new wave of negotiation activities, QoQ declines in contract prices of enterprise SSDs have exceeded the earlier estimation and now come to 23~28% as well For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email Ms Latte Chung from the Sales Department at lattechung@trendforcecom For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://insidertrendforcecom/

Report
4Q22 Mobile Datasheet

2022/11/18

Semiconductors , Consumer Electronics

EXCEL

Mobile DRAM and Mobile NAND Flash latest market supply/demand update

Report
4Q22 Server DRAM Datasheet

2022/11/18

Semiconductors

EXCEL

Quarterly Server DRAM latest market revenue/output update

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