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These new regulations, which took effect on April 4th, are designed to prevent certain countries and businesses from circumventing U.S. restrictions to access sensitive chip technologies and equipment. Despite these tighter controls, TrendForce believes the practical impact on the industry will be minimal.
TrendForce has provided an update on the dynamics of Taiwan's semiconductor factories following the earthquake on April 3rd. Most wafer foundries were situated in areas that experienced a Level 4 intensity shake. Owing to the high-spec construction standards of Taiwan's semiconductor factories, which feature world-class seismic mitigation measures capable of reducing seismic impacts by 1 to 2 levels, the facilities were largely able to resume operations after inspection shutdowns quickly. Even though there were instances of wafer breakages or damages due to emergency shutdowns or earthquake damages, the capacity utilization rates of mature process factories—averaging between 50–80%—meant that losses were quickly recovered after operations resumed, resulting in only minor impacts on capacity.
In the wake of a 7.2-magnitude earthquake off the eastern coast of Taiwan at 7:58 AM on April 3rd, TrendForce immediately investigated the damage and operational status of various manufacturers. The DRAM industry, primarily located in the northern and central parts of Taiwan, and the foundry industry, spread across the north, central, and southern regions of Taiwan, appear to have sustained minimal initial damage.
TrendForce projects a strong 13–18% increase in Q2 NAND Flash contract prices, with enterprise SSDs expected to rise highest. Despite Kioxia and WDC boosting their production capacity utilization rates from Q1 this year, other suppliers have kept their production strategies conservative.
Additionally, significant price increases by suppliers since 4Q23 are expected to further diminish the momentum for inventory restocking. As a result, DRAM contract prices for the second quarter are projected to see a modest increase of 3–8%, says TrendForce.
