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According to the latest TrendForce research report, the proportion of OLED in the mobile phone market is expected to exceed 50% in 2023, up from 42% in 2021. As the penetration of OLED in the mobile phone market gradually expands, IT products will be the next battlefield for key OLED developments. In order to further expand the IT market, panel manufacturers have increased capital expenditures for the construction of IT panel production lines and shifted planning to higher generational fabs to achieve more effective and economical sectioning but also taking on increasingly technical challenges.
On the evening of September 17, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale occurred in Guanshan Township, Taitung. Yesterday (9/18) afternoon, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale occurred in Chishang Township, Taitung. Following up on these recent powerful earthquakes, TrendForce’s investigation into their impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and panel industries is as follows:
According to TrendForce, although the 1Q22 is a traditional off-season, thanks to the backstop of deferred order shipments and demand for commercial models, notebook panel shipments grew by 5.5% compared with the same period in 2021. However, the sudden outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war at the end of February poured oil on the inflation fire. The impact of China's lockdowns in 2Q22 led to a decline in the assembly capacity of ODMs and a rise in in-plant inventories. Terminal demand was arrested by the overall harsh economic environment. Rising inventory levels made it necessary for brands to further reduce panel purchases. Moving into 3Q22, the market continued to suffer from rising inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in weak terminal demand and in high whole device inventory at the channel end, as well as high in-transit whole device and panel inventory. As distribution channels and brands actively reduce inventory, orders for notebook panels face sharp downward revisions. Shipments of notebook panels in 3Q22 is estimated to decrease by 13.4% QoQ to 45.1 million units, even lower than the 49.9 million units in the same 2019 period before the pandemic.
According to TrendForce, as technology and materials evolve, the penetration rate of OLED folding mobile phones is estimated to reach 1.1% in 2022. While mobile phone brands successive launch new flagship folding devices, penetration rate is expected to exceed 2.5% post-2024 driven by improved specifications and increasingly competitive pricing. In addition, there is an opportunity to provide a breath of fresh air to a market steeped in sluggish consumer sentiment led by inflation and drive folding mobile phones into the mainstream.
According to TrendForce research, global LCD monitor shipments reached 72.3 million units in 1H22, a level on par with to the same period in 2021. Certain whole devices orders in 4Q21 were deferred to 1Q22 due to logistics and transportation issues. In addition, some brands felt optimistic regarding the outlook for 2022, so they initiated aggressive promotions to stimulate sales in 1Q22. Although the Russian-Ukrainian war and rising inflation have seriously impacted demand in the European consumer market since Q2, demand for business models is still positive, which in turn bridges the gap left by the consumer market.
