Starlink V3 Deployment to Drive Launch Demand, Global Satellite Launch Market Expected to Reach US$40.4 Billion by 2028, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest research into the satellite industry reveals that Starlink has recently deployed its first batch of V3 satellites. The new satellites, featuring a 2,048-element phased-array antenna and operating at a lower orbital altitude, deliver ultra-low-latency broadband connectivity and direct-to-cell (D2C) services.

As Starlink readies for large-scale deployment of the V3 constellation, launch demand for parent company SpaceX is expected to grow steadily, driving the global satellite launch market to an estimated US$40.4 billion by 2028. 

TrendForce reports a significant rise in satellite communications demand among users in suburban and fringe metropolitan areas, leading Starlink to upgrade its constellation from V2 Mini to V3. The older V2 Mini satellites operated above 500 km altitude, where orbital congestion was increasing. 

To address this issue, Starlink lowered the V3 satellites' operating altitude to about 350 km, aiming to reduce signal interference in the Ka- and Ku-bands. This change decreases the end-to-end latency to under 20 ms and allows average broadband speeds of 100–200 Mbps uplink and 1–2 Gbps downlink for users in suburban regions of the United States, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. The new constellation also supports D2C cell voice services and enhanced in-flight connectivity.

The V3 satellites also introduce the V-band (50–75 GHz) and W-band (75–110 GHz) spectrums, allowing electronically steered array (ESA) antennas on the ground to become smaller and more compact. However, since signal attenuation becomes significantly more severe at these frequencies, RF front-end modules must evolve toward highly integrated millimeter-wave monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMICs) and low-power compound semiconductor materials such as gallium nitride (GaN) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) for high-frequency power amplifiers. 

This technological transition has prompted Starlink to award next-generation RF module orders to Taiwanese semiconductor and microwave component suppliers including UMT, WIN Semiconductors, and Transcom, while also creating opportunities for WNC, which offers one-stop RF module integration solutions.
 
Starship completes launch validation, dramatically reducing launch costs

TrendForce reports that the V3 deployment mission was carried out using SpaceX’s Starship, marking the successful completion of the vehicle’s launch validation. The Super Heavy booster ignited 33 Raptor engines to deliver 20 of the significantly larger V3 satellites into orbit, while simultaneously collecting critical performance data on technologies such as the vehicle’s thermal protection system.

The V3 constellation is expected to enter a phase of large-scale deployment as the number of satellite communications subscribers continues to grow. Furthermore, the emergence of 6G around 2028 is expected to create new application scenarios integrating satellites, high-altitude platform stations (HAPS), and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). 

Together, these trends are expected to increase demand for launch services—particularly those provided by Starship—driving the global satellite launch market from $29.3 billion in 2026 to $40.4 billion by 2028.

From a cost perspective, the Falcon 9 currently recovers only its first-stage booster, whereas Starship is designed to recover both its Super Heavy first stage and its second stage. This transition allows SpaceX to shift from manufacturing a new rocket for each mission to primarily conducting routine maintenance, reducing launch costs from tens of millions of U.S. dollars per mission to just a few million dollars.

TrendForce believes this cost reduction will ease SpaceX’s cash flow burden while enabling greater investment in emerging areas such as space-based AI in-orbit computing.