According to the latest 2019 Chinese LED Chip and Package Industry Market by LEDinside, a division of TrendForce, growth in the global LED lighting market has slowed down noticeably due to the global economic recession and the US- China trade dispute. Revenues for lighting LED packages were affected as a result. In 2018, China's LED packaging market scale for general lighting applications stood at US$5.2 billion, with a visible slowdown glanced from a CAGR of only 3% throughout the forecast period, 2018-2023.
Ever since China's 531 New Policy came into effect back in 2018, Chinese manufacturers impacted by the policy actively sought expansion overseas in order to lessen the risks from the policy. Adding that the distribution of global markets is becoming more diverse and dispersed, we see global demand for PV modules being pushed up as a result. EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, gives the following outlook for 2H19: Clients will slightly reduce pull-ins for 3Q, but this is expected to be a temporary state of rest for the market, which may still see demand for the whole 2019 year rise above 120GW.
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, points out that after the Toshiba outage in mid-June, the Japanese government announced that it will be controlling South Korea-bound exports of three key materials used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, smartphones and panels, causing module manufacturers in the memory industry downstream to give higher quotes. However, since DRAM and NAND Flash inventories remain high, and that this is not a complete barring of materials but a prolonging of procedures, the possibility of a short-term, structural reversal of supply and demand is low.
According to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, prices for mid- and large-sized LCD panels are unlikely to stop falling in 3Q19, mainly due to the trade war that raged on in 2Q. Some LCD brands have already stocked up beforehand as well as raised inventory levels of completed devices in North American regions. Adding the fact that brands are stuck with relatively high inventories of both panels and completed devices as a result of low demand, brands are reducing panel procurement for 3Q, causing restocking momentum to weaken.
WitsView , a division of TrendForce , says that demand for LTPS devices were previously expected to grow steadily in 2019 and cause utilization for LTPS production lines to climb. But due to the effects of the Huawei ban, LTPS area produced is expected to shrink starting from 3Q, with the annual area produced expected to fall by about 7.2% compared to 2018, arriving at just 8.3 million square-meters. This is the first time in recent years that LTPS area faces the risk of decline. However, it is worth observing whether panel demand will recover swiftly as the US relaxes for now the sales ban on Huawei in the wake of G20.
