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Given the intensifying COVID-19 pandemic in India and Vietnam in April and May, TrendForce is revising its forecast of annual smartphone production for 2021 from 1.36 billion units down to 1.35 billion units in response to the second wave of coronavirus that has spread throughout India and Vietnam. Even so, global smartphone production may undergo a further decline in 2H21, since the pandemic is showing no signs of an impending slowdown in Southeast Asia and is therefore likely to hinder demand from the region.
As the Taiwanese IPC (industrial PC) market suffered from deferred orders due to supply chain and logistical disruptions that took place in 1H20, total domestic IPC revenue for 1H20 reached NT$105.4 billion, a 4.7% YoY decrease, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, given that the pandemic was gradually brought under control in 1H21, the market was able to benefit from strong demand from China’s 5G infrastructure rollout, as well as from expanded investments by Europe and the US in public infrastructures such as roads and railways aimed at facilitating an economic recovery. Hence, Taiwan’s IPC revenue for 1H21 reached NT$115.1 billion, a 9.2% YoY increase.
The recent wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in India has weakened sales of retail storage products such as memory cards and USB drives, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, demand remains fairly strong in the main application segments due to the arrival of the traditional peak season and the growth in the procurement related to data centers. Hence, the sufficiency ratio of the entire market has declined further. NAND Flash suppliers have kept their inventories at a healthy level thanks to clients’ stock-up activities during the past several quarters. Moreover, the ongoing shortage of NAND Flash controller ICs continues to affect the production of finished storage products. Taking account of these demand-side and supply-side factors, TrendForce forecasts that contract prices of NAND Flash products will rise marginally for 3Q21, with QoQ increases in the range of 5-10%.
As third quarters have typically been peak seasons for the production of various end-products, the sufficiency ratio of DRAM is expected to undergo a further decrease in 3Q21, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. However, DRAM buyers are now carrying a relatively high DRAM inventory due to their amplified purchases of electronic components in 1H21. The QoQ increase in DRAM contract prices are hence expected to slightly narrow from 18-23% in 2Q21 to 3-8% in 3Q21. Looking ahead to 4Q21, TrendForce believes that DRAM supply will continue to rise, thereby leading to either a further narrowing of price hikes or pressure constraining the potential price hike of DRAM products.
While the stay-at-home economy generated high demand for notebook computers from distance learning and WFH applications last year, global notebook shipment for 2020 underwent a nearly 26% YoY increase, which represented a significant departure from the cyclical 3% YoY increase/decrease that had historically taken place each year, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The uptrend in notebook demand is expected to persist in 2021, during which notebook shipment will likely reach 236 million units, a 15% YoY increase. In particular, thanks to the surging demand for education notebooks, Chromebooks will become the primary growth driver in the notebook market. Regarding the shipment performance of various brands, Samsung and Apple will register the highest growths, with the former having Chromebooks account for nearly 50% of its total notebook shipment this year and the latter continuing to release MacBooks equipped with the M1 chip.
