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According to the latest TrendForce investigations, moving into the second half of 3Q22, the lack of a peak season has led to a delay in inventory destocking. Transactions in the NAND Flash market have been frosty. Buyers are watching passively and tend not to negotiate pricing. Pressure on factory inventory has reached a breaking point and manufacturers are bottoming out pricing in order to make a deal. This move will lead to a further decline in manufacturer pricing. TrendForce once again revises downward 3Q22 NAND Flash wafer contract prices and the decline of pricing is estimated to balloon to 30-35% from the original estimate of 15-20%.
According to TrendForce research, global notebook shipments reached 45.74 million units in 2Q22, down 17.7% QoQ and 24.5% YoY, setting a single-quarter post-COVID19 outbreak low. In addition to the end of pandemic proceeds, Chromebook's educational outlook is no longer rosy. Consumer demand has also been greatly reduced due to rising inflation in Europe and the United States and festering geopolitical issues. At the same time, repeated lockdown measures in Eastern China have not only seriously impacted the stability of the notebook supply chain, but also the huge Chinese consumer market as well as all three major world economies. Even though commercial demand in 1H22 seemed to have been backstopped by the return to the office, U.S. interest rate hikes, rising inflation and high inventory, and narrowing corporate profits and even losses have led to a reduction of capital expenditures and recession. The total number of notebook computers shipped worldwide in 1H22 was 100 million units, an annual decline of 14.7%. The forecast for notebook shipments for the entirety of 2022 is revised down to 195 million units.
According to TrendForce research, NAND Flash contract pricing increased by approximately 3-8% in 2Q22 due to Kioxia’s raw material contamination incident. However, consumer demand remained sluggish, resulting in weaker bits demand in laptops, chromebooks, TVs, and smartphones and leading to a rise in client inventory levels. Enterprise SSD purchasing has maintained strong momentum, offsetting sluggish consumer demand. In 2Q22, supplier bit shipments decreased by 1.3% QoQ, while ASP increased by 2.3%. Overall NAND Flash industry revenue reached US$18.12 billion, growing 1.1% QoQ.
According to TrendForce investigations, 2H22 smartphone production planning was quite conservative as brands gave priority to adjusting distribution channel inventory. At the same time, weak market demand worsened on the back of China's pandemic controls and brands were forced to lower their production targets. As a whole, production volume dropped 6% in Q2, even though volume had always grown in previous second quarters. Global output was only roughly 292 million units, a 5% annual decline compared with the production performance in the same period in 2021 when a second wave of pandemic outbreaks occurred in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Spurred by pandemic-induced lifestyle changes in the past two years, demand for distance education grew and sales of electronic products boomed, driving the growth of DRAM module shipments. According to TrendForce statistics, overall 2021 sales in the global DRAM module market reached US$18.1 billion, with an annual growth rate of approximately 7%. Due to different business strategies employed by each module house, revenue distribution among module houses varied.
