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According to the latest TrendForce research, despite the rapid weakening of overall consumer demand in 1H22, DRAM manufacturers previously presented a tough stance on price negotiations and gave little ground, steadily conveying inventory pressure from buyers to sellers. Facing uncertain peak-season demand in 2H22, some DRAM suppliers have begun effectively expressing clear intentions to cut prices, especially in the server field, where demand is relatively stable, in order to reduce inventory pressure. This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ. If a price war is incited due to companies competing for sales, the drop in prices may exceed 10%.
According to TrendForce research, observing recent server market dynamics, ODM’s prior production plans have begun to gradually cool. Since the material mismatch cycle has improved significantly, server motherboard suppliers' stocking momentum began falling off in 2Q22. At the same time, pandemic lockdowns in Shanghai have impacted the production of some ODMs. Particularly, enterprise orders led by Inventec have borne the brunt. Production plans including those of Dell and HPE have been significantly delayed but overall shipment performance will not be affected in the short term. Global server shipments are still forecast to grow by 6.5% QoQ in 3Q22, mainly due to continued support from demand generated by companies accelerating cloud migration post-pandemic.
According to TrendForce data, global wafer foundry capacity will increase by approximately 14% annually in 2022. Since expanding 8-inch capacity is not cost-effective and its growth rate is much lower than the overall industry average, 8-inch capacity will grow approximately 6% annually, while 12-inch capacity will grow 18% annually. Of this new capacity, approximately 65% of new 12-inch capacity will be in mature processes (28nm and above) with an annual growth rate of 20%. It is obvious that in 2022, most wafer foundries will focus on 12-inch wafer production capacity, with the main driving force behind production expansion coming from TSMC, UMC, SMIC, HuaHong Group’s HHGrace, and Nexchip.
According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended lead times up to 18-30 months. Before this latest equipment lead time delay, the annual growth rate of 12-inch equivalent (including 12-inch and 8-inch) capacity supplied by global foundries in 2022 and 2023 was estimated to be 13% and 10%, respectively. Current observations indicate that this delay of semiconductor equipment has a relatively marginal impact on expansion plans in 2022 with the bulk of repercussions arriving in 2023, affecting TSMC, UMC, PSMC, Vanguard, SMIC, and GlobalFoundries, and encompassing mature and advanced processes. Overall expansion plans will be delayed for approximately 2 to 9 months with annual capacity growth expected to fall to 8% for the year.
According to TrendForce research, as output from Kioxia and WDC grows month by month, it has become obvious that production capacity is sufficient to meet increased bit demand. However, post-pandemic demand for consumer electronics such as laptops will no longer lead to flagging orders. Coupled with slow destocking among Chinese smartphone brands due to the pandemic and rising inflation, these factors will lead to oversupply in the 3Q22 NAND Flash market, in turn affecting a price drop of 0~5% in 3Q22.
