HBM Supply Constraints Persist, 2027 Price Outlook Revised Upward with Blended ASP Forecast to Rise 121% YoY, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest research reveals that continued expansion in AI server demand is keeping HBM and conventional DRAM in competition for limited advanced-process and wafer capacity. Meanwhile, yields and output for next-generation products will take time to ramp, keeping memory supply tight through 2027.

Against a backdrop of continued memory price increases, suppliers have also taken a firmer stance on raising HBM prices in 2027. TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook to reflect persistent supply constraints, a growing share of higher-priced HBM4, and the gradual ramp-up of HBM4e in 2H27. Blended ASP is now projected to jump 121% YoY.

Supply and cost constraints drive capacity adjustments, with 8-Hi emerging as a priority option

TrendForce reports that GPU and ASIC manufacturers are now considering reducing HBM capacity per device. This shift is driven not by waning end-market demand but by limited HBM supply and quickly increasing system costs. 

Compared to earlier plans for 12-Hi HBM modules, 8-Hi configurations use fewer DRAM dies, lowering both the cost per stack and the overall GPU bill of materials. These configurations also enable the same HBM bit output to support more GPUs. Given the ongoing tight HBM supply, 8-Hi setups are expected to be a priority for evaluation by many GPU and ASIC vendors in 2027, balancing performance, supply, and cost.

However, reducing HBM capacity does not necessarily translate into a lower price per gigabit. Each HBM stack requires one base die, and this cost does not decline proportionally with the number of DRAM layers. An 8-Hi stack has less DRAM capacity over which to spread the base-die cost than a 12-Hi stack, making its per-Gb cost actually higher. TrendForce expects 8-Hi products to carry a roughly 10–20% price premium per Gb over 12-Hi products in 2027.

Overall, TrendForce expects the HBM market to remain supply-constrained in 2027. With both availability and rising costs shaping purchasing decisions, 8-Hi penetration is expected to increase as more GPU and ASIC vendors evaluate the configuration. However, its higher per-Gb cost relative to 12-Hi will remain an important consideration in specification negotiations and supply-chain planning. As a result, while adjustments to HBM capacity may help alleviate some GPU cost pressure in 2027, they are unlikely to reverse the broader trend of substantial HBM price increases.