[News] Samsung Sees HBM Taking Nearly 30% of Industry DRAM Capacity in 2027, Up From 20% Currently

AI-driven HBM demand is set to take up a growing share of global DRAM production capacity. According to Reuters, Samsung Electronics Executive Vice President Kim Taewoo said HBM is expected to account for nearly 30% of the DRAM industry’s total wafer capacity next year, up from about 20% currently. Kim noted that HBM and conventional DRAM compete for the same wafer capacity, meaning further HBM expansion could constrain conventional DRAM supply, the report adds.

At the company level, Samsung could also significantly expand its HBM capacity. According to Seoul Economic Daily, industry estimates suggest that Samsung’s average monthly HBM wafer input could rise nearly 40% from roughly 180,000 wafers this year to around 250,000 in 2027. The report adds that the HBM4 family could account for around 80% of Samsung’s HBM shipments next year, up from roughly 40% this year as HBM4E mass production ramps up.

The impact on conventional DRAM supply could be amplified by HBM’s greater wafer requirements. ijiwei notes that HBM consumes roughly three times as much wafer area as conventional DRAM. Put another way, the wafer area occupied by a single HBM die is roughly equivalent to that required for 3GB of DDR5. This means that as HBM’s share of DRAM capacity rises from 20% to 30%, conventional DRAM supply could be displaced at two to three times that pace.

Persistent Supply Tightness Drives Up 2027 HBM Price Outlook

These capacity pressures are expected to keep the broader memory market tight. According to TrendForce, continued growth in AI server demand is keeping HBM and conventional DRAM in competition for limited advanced-node and wafer capacity. With yields and output for next-generation products also taking time to improve, memory supply is expected to remain tight in 2027.

Against a backdrop of continued memory price increases, TrendForce notes that suppliers have also taken a firmer stance on raising HBM prices in 2027. TrendForce has raised its 2027 HBM price outlook to reflect persistent supply constraints, a growing share of higher-priced HBM4, and the gradual ramp-up of HBM4e in 2H27. Blended ASP is now projected to jump 121% YoY.

Read more

• HBM Supply Constraints Persist, 2027 Price Outlook Revised Upward with Blended ASP Forecast to Rise 121% YoY, Says TrendForce
• [News] CXMT, YMTC Ramp Memory Capacity, but China’s AI, Cloud Boom Could Soak Up New Supply Through 2027

(Photo credit: Samsung)